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Thursday, September 6, 2012

Silver Trend


Long term- Up / -- GOES TO NEUTRAL ON A monthly close day below 27.70
Medium Term-Neutral - Need moving average cross to flip bullish
Intermediate Term- Bullish-- Need a close below 29.50 for bearish trend
Short Term- Neutral – Price at upper end of price range.   
caution is warranted === risky at these high level of price.

Initial resistance 32.75-32.93 and 2nd tier 33.18-33.55
Initial Support 32.23-32.64 and 2nd tier 31.45-31.88




What Next?

Today’s highs in the metals we’re most likely were the peak for the week. The key for Friday will be the jobs report at 8:30 AM EST NY time. The close on the lower range of the day and how far price has come leaves us with the same view – that the trend is up but holding leverage is risky at these levels. 
The potential that gold and silver have discounted a lot of what is going to happen in September with the big August rally is a consideration.  The rally to new highs last night was very strange looking. It was like a stair step rise that didn't have pullbacks (we are talking gold) and was just one slow rise all the way to 1712 where it traded for quite a while in a two or three dollar range. It just looked strange. 
In any event, during the day today we got out of our longs on the signals trade page at 1709 gold at 32.80 silver.  
The failure of gold to close above 1705 today after being as high as 1718 is also another item that was concerning. In any event, price is at the upper short term ranges, the risk is high for leveraged short term longs and a pullback after such a run up would probably be good for metals.  Prices should remain contained until the morning when the jobs report comes out.  It would be a nice time for the boyz to increase the pullback strings.  
n summary, odds favor a pullback.  With the jobs report in the morning, the pressure on the metals will most likely contain the price range on the upside, at least until the report.  


Bottom Line

We favored higher last night and made it to 33 in silver, but by this afternoon, my though was with risk and exited the website trade.  Perhaps it was just a pullback today and the upside will resume, but the risk at this price is very high on leveraged products in the short term.  


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