Current fall is near an end of wave around 1651.28 zone, a rally should then procede to above 1661.65. Fall below 1646.53 would cancel this scenario.
Precious metals continue in consolidation mode, with the price to invest in Gold easing to $1,654.50 an ounce, and the price to invest in Silver dipping to $30.75 an ounce, nearly one month after the price of Gold finished higher for a 12th consecutive year. Bank of America Merrill Lynch has just reiterated that it is maintaining a six month price target of $2,000 an ounce for Gold, one of several analysts calling for a new high to be struck this year. The Gold price hit a record all-time high of $1,920.30 an ounce in September 2011.
Some investors are staying on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy statement due out on Wednesday, while others are saying it could be a non-event now that the Fed has clearly delineated its target for unemployment at 6.5 percent. Nomura is expecting a small decline in the U.S. unemployment rate to 7.7 percent. The U.S. unemployment rate, while unacceptable, stands in stark contrast to the euro zone where unemployment in the 17 nation bloc surged for a fifth straight month to 11.9 percent.
“In our view, the Fed is unlikely to let nominal yields rise significantly in the coming months. At the same token, a potential pick-up of U.S. growth into 2Q13 is set to support inflation expectations. As a result, real yields should remain broadly supportive for Gold prices. Given the pre-eminence to fight deflation as a policy goal post recession, we believe that reflation remains a key objective of central banks in many advanced nations,” wrote Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in a research note.
GOLD CHART
Gold touched the red downtrend line and support that we listed on Twitter this morning at 1649-1651. The lowest close in gold this year is 1647 so this is an important price support area. There’s one more mini trend line near 1645 but that intersection of the downtrend red line and the uptrend purple line is key support for this week. If you’ll note we have now hit this red line three times since 1/17 and each has provided support. As long as we keep closing above 1647 there is a potential for gold to hold. The problem that the market still faces is what the Federal Reserve meeting is going to bring to the market on Wednesday afternoons policy announcement. The last time they dropped a hint that they might end easing earlier and that gold collapse on the left of the chart was the result of the last meeting. Odds favor they will keep bailing and supporting but they are crafting their words carefully as they don’t want another ratings downgrade. With options expiration today and the Feb contract rollover this week & the Fed meeting, a lot of players have moved to the sideline as they have been burned so many times.
The choppy and overlap look of the rise last over the last two weeks that we kept mentioning last week gave way on Thursday and so far this downtrend has an impulsive look to it. A new short term cycle was due to begin on the 27th (plus or minus 72 hours) and so it remains to be seen if this new two week cycle is already underway or if it will form a bottom and begin an up move after Wednesday. The next cycle should last into the 8th to the 12th of February.
Support today is the 1649-1651 area and the 1642-1644 zone at the mini blue line. The Red and purple line crossing is the strongest support and we favor that area as the most likely low point for the day. It’s always dangerous when we make new lows as you never know when they decide to drop prices hard in a few seconds like they’ve been known to do. Resistance is the 1660-1662 and1666-1668 area. The strongest resistance point is that higher purple channel line above prices near 1666-1668. The green 200 hour moving average is way up by 1680 and the trend is technically down when we are below that average.
If it weren't for the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, I'd favor that the low at the red and purple line is the low for this week. Its certainly the strongest place on the chart for a weekly low. But again, look at the left hand side of the chart. That was the last outcome of a Fed update.
INVATA SA TRANZACTIONEZI GRATIS PIPSI IN FOREX
Current fall is near an end of wave around 1651.28 zone, a rally should then procede to above 1661.65. Fall below 1646.53 would cancel this scenario.
Precious metals continue in consolidation mode, with the price to invest in Gold easing to $1,654.50 an ounce, and the price to invest in Silver dipping to $30.75 an ounce, nearly one month after the price of Gold finished higher for a 12th consecutive year. Bank of America Merrill Lynch has just reiterated that it is maintaining a six month price target of $2,000 an ounce for Gold, one of several analysts calling for a new high to be struck this year. The Gold price hit a record all-time high of $1,920.30 an ounce in September 2011.
Some investors are staying on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy statement due out on Wednesday, while others are saying it could be a non-event now that the Fed has clearly delineated its target for unemployment at 6.5 percent. Nomura is expecting a small decline in the U.S. unemployment rate to 7.7 percent. The U.S. unemployment rate, while unacceptable, stands in stark contrast to the euro zone where unemployment in the 17 nation bloc surged for a fifth straight month to 11.9 percent.
“In our view, the Fed is unlikely to let nominal yields rise significantly in the coming months. At the same token, a potential pick-up of U.S. growth into 2Q13 is set to support inflation expectations. As a result, real yields should remain broadly supportive for Gold prices. Given the pre-eminence to fight deflation as a policy goal post recession, we believe that reflation remains a key objective of central banks in many advanced nations,” wrote Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in a research note.
The choppy and overlap look of the rise last over the last two weeks that we kept mentioning last week gave way on Thursday and so far this downtrend has an impulsive look to it. A new short term cycle was due to begin on the 27th (plus or minus 72 hours) and so it remains to be seen if this new two week cycle is already underway or if it will form a bottom and begin an up move after Wednesday. The next cycle should last into the 8th to the 12th of February.
Support today is the 1649-1651 area and the 1642-1644 zone at the mini blue line. The Red and purple line crossing is the strongest support and we favor that area as the most likely low point for the day. It’s always dangerous when we make new lows as you never know when they decide to drop prices hard in a few seconds like they’ve been known to do. Resistance is the 1660-1662 and1666-1668 area. The strongest resistance point is that higher purple channel line above prices near 1666-1668. The green 200 hour moving average is way up by 1680 and the trend is technically down when we are below that average.
If it weren't for the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, I'd favor that the low at the red and purple line is the low for this week. Its certainly the strongest place on the chart for a weekly low. But again, look at the left hand side of the chart. That was the last outcome of a Fed update.
Some investors are staying on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy statement due out on Wednesday, while others are saying it could be a non-event now that the Fed has clearly delineated its target for unemployment at 6.5 percent. Nomura is expecting a small decline in the U.S. unemployment rate to 7.7 percent. The U.S. unemployment rate, while unacceptable, stands in stark contrast to the euro zone where unemployment in the 17 nation bloc surged for a fifth straight month to 11.9 percent.
“In our view, the Fed is unlikely to let nominal yields rise significantly in the coming months. At the same token, a potential pick-up of U.S. growth into 2Q13 is set to support inflation expectations. As a result, real yields should remain broadly supportive for Gold prices. Given the pre-eminence to fight deflation as a policy goal post recession, we believe that reflation remains a key objective of central banks in many advanced nations,” wrote Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in a research note.
GOLD CHART
Gold touched the red downtrend line and support that we listed on Twitter this morning at 1649-1651. The lowest close in gold this year is 1647 so this is an important price support area. There’s one more mini trend line near 1645 but that intersection of the downtrend red line and the uptrend purple line is key support for this week. If you’ll note we have now hit this red line three times since 1/17 and each has provided support. As long as we keep closing above 1647 there is a potential for gold to hold. The problem that the market still faces is what the Federal Reserve meeting is going to bring to the market on Wednesday afternoons policy announcement. The last time they dropped a hint that they might end easing earlier and that gold collapse on the left of the chart was the result of the last meeting. Odds favor they will keep bailing and supporting but they are crafting their words carefully as they don’t want another ratings downgrade. With options expiration today and the Feb contract rollover this week & the Fed meeting, a lot of players have moved to the sideline as they have been burned so many times.The choppy and overlap look of the rise last over the last two weeks that we kept mentioning last week gave way on Thursday and so far this downtrend has an impulsive look to it. A new short term cycle was due to begin on the 27th (plus or minus 72 hours) and so it remains to be seen if this new two week cycle is already underway or if it will form a bottom and begin an up move after Wednesday. The next cycle should last into the 8th to the 12th of February.
Support today is the 1649-1651 area and the 1642-1644 zone at the mini blue line. The Red and purple line crossing is the strongest support and we favor that area as the most likely low point for the day. It’s always dangerous when we make new lows as you never know when they decide to drop prices hard in a few seconds like they’ve been known to do. Resistance is the 1660-1662 and1666-1668 area. The strongest resistance point is that higher purple channel line above prices near 1666-1668. The green 200 hour moving average is way up by 1680 and the trend is technically down when we are below that average.
If it weren't for the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, I'd favor that the low at the red and purple line is the low for this week. Its certainly the strongest place on the chart for a weekly low. But again, look at the left hand side of the chart. That was the last outcome of a Fed update.
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
