21 Jan – 22 Feb
$500 Contest
Fxprizes
Long Term=Bullish - major yearly resistance 1767-1804 needs to be exceeded on a monthly bass and close above 1840 to resume long term up bull trend.
Medium Term=Bullish - It takes a weekly close below 1625 to turn the trend Neutral. Resistance 1755-1804 (Oct/Nov 2012 Resistance)
Intermediate Term= Bullish---it takes a close below 1648 to go bearish.
Short Term= Bullish --- The trend is up A close above 1698 would favor 1715-1720 and close below 1657 would neutralize the uptrend and a close below 1648 bearish. The pattern looks choppy and overlapping and that is a concern.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1692-1699.8 and 2nd tier 1711-1721
Initial Support 1677-1683 and 2nd tier 1663-1667
RECAP
Chicago Mercantile Exchange News
The gold market failed to forge a mid morning/early afternoon Friday recovery as was the case in several days earlier in the week. Adverse currency market action and week ending profit taking by the longs might have favored the bear camp but it is also possible that the Chinese economic data left a number of markets flat footed today. In short, hopes for global growth and recovery were reduced from the levels seen early in the week. In the end, the gold market this week didn't spend a lot of time reacting to the economy it instead seemed to react to safe haven issues.
Bullish
India festivals, Chinese New Year (Feb), QE stimulus, German Gold Recall, Seasonal, 8th longest correction since 1968,
Bearish
Pattern is choppy & overlap but not overtly (so far has resolved higher)
Overview
The technical summary is the 200 day, 200 hour, 34 week, moving averages and the 23% FIB support are all bunched in a range of 1663-1671 and have almost ganged up together to provide a bull WALL of support. From a weekly basis the 1657-1666 area should be support. If we we’re to break that it would be a red flag. A DAILY/WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 1648 WOULD BE THE RED FLAG that this rally is only a counter trend move. Otherwise the potential for price to move higher into Mid-February is still in play. ODDS favor that 1695-1702 or 1712-1722 are key RESISTANCE points this week and it is possible for a pullback to begin at those price points.
There is a minor cycle we watch that does favor a potential peak near the 22st – 23rd of the month that might give us a 3 day pullback this week. The next short term cycle we follow is due on Jan 27th (plus or minus 72 hours) If we’re in an inversion, price should move higher into that time frame. The other scenario is what we just mentioned---we could get a pullback from the 22nd and into the 27th.
The hourly chart
We went from an INSIDE day to an OUTSIDE day (lower low, higher high) and negated that INSIDE DAY. IT’s A WIDE DAY 1666-1699 and a thirty dollar range means we’re most likely to consolidate and perhaps get another inside day on Friday. If not and the market moves higher it will be most likely heading for 1715-1720 as the next target. The odds favor a consolidation but let us not forget we’re in a cycle inversion.
The key is if we can get out of this purple channel. It’s a must. UNTIL WE do, we can’t rule out the purple line at 1660. THUS its critical to make this purple line at 1690 the NEW SUPPORT. The key to further upside is most likely going to be the test of the BLUE RESISTANCE line in the 1710-1720 area.
What next?
Gold is a short term uptrend but we should be cautions as the pattern is choppy and overlapping. A short term pullback from the 22nd to the 27th (give or take a few days) is the most likely scenario but with the cycles under inversion it leaves other potentials that we’ve discussed in the cycles portion.
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INVATA SA TRANZACTIONEZI GRATIS PIPSI IN FOREX
21 Jan – 22 Feb
$500 Contest
Fxprizes
RECAP
Chicago Mercantile Exchange News
Overview
The hourly chart
INVATA SA TRANZACTIONEZI GRATIS PIPSI IN FOREX
$500 Contest
Fxprizes
Long Term=Bullish - major yearly resistance 1767-1804 needs to be exceeded on a monthly bass and close above 1840 to resume long term up bull trend.
Medium Term=Bullish - It takes a weekly close below 1625 to turn the trend Neutral. Resistance 1755-1804 (Oct/Nov 2012 Resistance)
Intermediate Term= Bullish---it takes a close below 1648 to go bearish.
Short Term= Bullish --- The trend is up A close above 1698 would favor 1715-1720 and close below 1657 would neutralize the uptrend and a close below 1648 bearish. The pattern looks choppy and overlapping and that is a concern.
Medium Term=Bullish - It takes a weekly close below 1625 to turn the trend Neutral. Resistance 1755-1804 (Oct/Nov 2012 Resistance)
Intermediate Term= Bullish---it takes a close below 1648 to go bearish.
Short Term= Bullish --- The trend is up A close above 1698 would favor 1715-1720 and close below 1657 would neutralize the uptrend and a close below 1648 bearish. The pattern looks choppy and overlapping and that is a concern.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1692-1699.8 and 2nd tier 1711-1721
Initial Support 1677-1683 and 2nd tier 1663-1667
RECAP
Chicago Mercantile Exchange News
The gold market failed to forge a mid morning/early afternoon Friday recovery as was the case in several days earlier in the week. Adverse currency market action and week ending profit taking by the longs might have favored the bear camp but it is also possible that the Chinese economic data left a number of markets flat footed today. In short, hopes for global growth and recovery were reduced from the levels seen early in the week. In the end, the gold market this week didn't spend a lot of time reacting to the economy it instead seemed to react to safe haven issues.
Bullish
India festivals, Chinese New Year (Feb), QE stimulus, German Gold Recall, Seasonal, 8th longest correction since 1968,
Bearish
Pattern is choppy & overlap but not overtly (so far has resolved higher)
The technical summary is the 200 day, 200 hour, 34 week, moving averages and the 23% FIB support are all bunched in a range of 1663-1671 and have almost ganged up together to provide a bull WALL of support. From a weekly basis the 1657-1666 area should be support. If we we’re to break that it would be a red flag. A DAILY/WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 1648 WOULD BE THE RED FLAG that this rally is only a counter trend move. Otherwise the potential for price to move higher into Mid-February is still in play. ODDS favor that 1695-1702 or 1712-1722 are key RESISTANCE points this week and it is possible for a pullback to begin at those price points.
There is a minor cycle we watch that does favor a potential peak near the 22st – 23rd of the month that might give us a 3 day pullback this week. The next short term cycle we follow is due on Jan 27th (plus or minus 72 hours) If we’re in an inversion, price should move higher into that time frame. The other scenario is what we just mentioned---we could get a pullback from the 22nd and into the 27th.
The hourly chart
We went from an INSIDE day to an OUTSIDE day (lower low, higher high) and negated that INSIDE DAY. IT’s A WIDE DAY 1666-1699 and a thirty dollar range means we’re most likely to consolidate and perhaps get another inside day on Friday. If not and the market moves higher it will be most likely heading for 1715-1720 as the next target. The odds favor a consolidation but let us not forget we’re in a cycle inversion.
The key is if we can get out of this purple channel. It’s a must. UNTIL WE do, we can’t rule out the purple line at 1660. THUS its critical to make this purple line at 1690 the NEW SUPPORT. The key to further upside is most likely going to be the test of the BLUE RESISTANCE line in the 1710-1720 area.
What next?
Gold is a short term uptrend but we should be cautions as the pattern is choppy and overlapping. A short term pullback from the 22nd to the 27th (give or take a few days) is the most likely scenario but with the cycles under inversion it leaves other potentials that we’ve discussed in the cycles portion.
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
