21 Jan – 22 Feb
$500 Contest
Fxprizes
Long Term=Bullish - major yearly resistance 1792-1804 needs to be exceeded on a monthly bass and close above 1840 to resume long term up bull trend.
Medium Term=Bullish - It takes a weekly close below 1625 to turn the trend Neutral. Resistance 1755-1765(Oct/Nov 2012 Resistance)
Intermediate Term= Bullish---it takes a close below 1648 to go bearish.
Short Term= Bullish --- The trend is up A close above 1698 would favor 1715-1720 and close below 1657 would neutralize the uptrend and a close below 1648 bearish. The pattern looks choppy and overlapping and that is a concern.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1695-1705 and 2nd tier 1711-1721
Initial Support 1679-1686 and 2nd tier 1663-1667
RECAP
Chicago Mercantile Exchange News
The gold market was able to shake off early pressure and finish out Tuesday's trading session with moderate gains and with the highest closing price since mid-December. While today's set of US economic data provided few highlights, a generally positive tone from recent corporate earnings reports provided gold with early support. Along with the other metals market, gold appeared to receive a boost from the fresh easing measures at last night's Bank of Japan meeting. A late rally in US equity markets along with a slumping Dollar gave gold prices additional support later on in the trading day.
Bullish
India festivals, Chinese New Year (Feb), QE stimulus, German Gold Recall, Seasonal, 8th longest correction since 1968,
Bearish
Pattern is choppy & overlap but not overtly (so far has resolved higher)
SHORT TERM
we’ve reached the first target area of 1695-1702 (1696) and the 2nd area is still 1712-1722. One of these price points favor the high for this week. We’re changing the 1695-1702 to 1695-1704.
The technical summary is the 200 day, 200 hour, 34 week, moving averages and the 23% FIB support are all bunched in a range of 1663-1674 and have almost ganged up together to provide a bull WALL of support. From a weekly basis the 1663-1666 area should be support. If we we’re to break that it would be a red flag. A DAILY/WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 1648 SUGGEST that this rally is only a counter trend move and would put the 1625 low in question. Otherwise the potential for price to move higher into Mid-February is still in play.
There is a minor cycle we watch that does favor a potential peak near the 22st – 23rd of the month that might give us a 3 day pullback this week. We listed the next short term cycle we follow is due on Jan 27th (plus or minus 72 hours) but it’s really Jan 26th. The most bullish scenario would be for price to peak on Wednesday and pullback into Thursday/Friday and even Monday and then begin another 2 week up move as the next cycle begins. What we have to watch out for is a peak on this cycle that is due and a potential pullback into the 8th to 10th of the month. That would be in exact line with the Chinese New Year celebrations that begins on Feb 10th.
The cycle inversion continues. Last January we just kept going higher right past the coming short term cycle and into February. That still is possible. The only difference is that last January we had an impulsive looking pattern and so far we have a choppy and overlapping one. It can morph but so far hasn’t. The silver strength is bullish and part of the reason that gold has been a bit weaker is there is a trade spread long silver/short gold going on in the market. At some point it will be unwound but not so far.
In summary, it’s possible to peak at 1695-1704 and begin a pullback into weeks end or even Monday. Wednesday would be the favored day for a mid week high.
Wednesday Daily Bull/Bear pivot zone 1688-1692 (ideal 1690)
Weekly Bull/Bear pivot zone 1677-1682 (Ideal 1680)
the hourly chart
the one concern we continue to stay cautious with is the pattern from the lows have maintained a choppy and overlap look. The most likely failure point would be 1698-1704. Because we’re dealing with odds and not absolutes, the potential for gold to move higher towards 1711-1722 certainly can’t be ruled out. Seasonal factors are bullish, but I am concerned with the pattern. The purple trade channel line continues to keep prices from pushing above it with the 1695-1698 area as key resistance. Odds favor it either breaks through on Wednesday or provides a price failure from which a pullback will develop. What we’re not certain of is whether the pullback will just be a 3 to 5 day affair and then another 2 week rally into February occurs of if we make end up making a short term cycle peak this week and have the pullback last until around the 8th to 10th of February.
What next?
As we move to mid week Wednesday there’s always a chance for the high of the week to be registered. With the short term cycle turn window opening up the potential for a pullback to begin from this rally will be in play into the 26th (plus or minus 72 hours) between now and next Monday. However, with a cycle inversion in play it makes the call less reliable. As we’ve mentioned the one thing we’re concerned about is the price pattern we’ve seen since the lows. It has more chop and overlap then we like to see. For medium term investors we continue to like the upside but WON’T be off the hook until we finally take out the 1792-1804 yearly resistance. For now the trend is up medium term, but short term has us cautious around this price and time point.
BOTTOM LINE
The potential to make a price high on the 22nd and pullback into Friday or early next week is a strong consideration. IF WE CAN’T get above that purple trend line on the hourly chart, gold can turn down here. That is what the chop and overlap warn us of and the 1698-1704 area is the most likely point where it could top out. We hit 1699 last Thursday so that is the one concern we’ve had all week and it remains so as we enter Wednesday.
INVATA SA TRANZACTIONEZI GRATIS PIPSI IN FOREX
21 Jan – 22 Feb
$500 Contest
Fxprizes
What next?
INVATA SA TRANZACTIONEZI GRATIS PIPSI IN FOREX
$500 Contest
Fxprizes
Long Term=Bullish - major yearly resistance 1792-1804 needs to be exceeded on a monthly bass and close above 1840 to resume long term up bull trend.
Medium Term=Bullish - It takes a weekly close below 1625 to turn the trend Neutral. Resistance 1755-1765(Oct/Nov 2012 Resistance)
Intermediate Term= Bullish---it takes a close below 1648 to go bearish.
Short Term= Bullish --- The trend is up A close above 1698 would favor 1715-1720 and close below 1657 would neutralize the uptrend and a close below 1648 bearish. The pattern looks choppy and overlapping and that is a concern.
Medium Term=Bullish - It takes a weekly close below 1625 to turn the trend Neutral. Resistance 1755-1765(Oct/Nov 2012 Resistance)
Intermediate Term= Bullish---it takes a close below 1648 to go bearish.
Short Term= Bullish --- The trend is up A close above 1698 would favor 1715-1720 and close below 1657 would neutralize the uptrend and a close below 1648 bearish. The pattern looks choppy and overlapping and that is a concern.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1695-1705 and 2nd tier 1711-1721
Initial Support 1679-1686 and 2nd tier 1663-1667
RECAP
Chicago Mercantile Exchange News
Bullish
India festivals, Chinese New Year (Feb), QE stimulus, German Gold Recall, Seasonal, 8th longest correction since 1968,
Bearish
Pattern is choppy & overlap but not overtly (so far has resolved higher)
Chicago Mercantile Exchange News
The gold market was able to shake off early pressure and finish out Tuesday's trading session with moderate gains and with the highest closing price since mid-December. While today's set of US economic data provided few highlights, a generally positive tone from recent corporate earnings reports provided gold with early support. Along with the other metals market, gold appeared to receive a boost from the fresh easing measures at last night's Bank of Japan meeting. A late rally in US equity markets along with a slumping Dollar gave gold prices additional support later on in the trading day.
India festivals, Chinese New Year (Feb), QE stimulus, German Gold Recall, Seasonal, 8th longest correction since 1968,
Bearish
Pattern is choppy & overlap but not overtly (so far has resolved higher)
SHORT TERM
Wednesday Daily Bull/Bear pivot zone 1688-1692 (ideal 1690)
Weekly Bull/Bear pivot zone 1677-1682 (Ideal 1680)
we’ve reached the first target area of 1695-1702 (1696) and the 2nd area is still 1712-1722. One of these price points favor the high for this week. We’re changing the 1695-1702 to 1695-1704.
The technical summary is the 200 day, 200 hour, 34 week, moving averages and the 23% FIB support are all bunched in a range of 1663-1674 and have almost ganged up together to provide a bull WALL of support. From a weekly basis the 1663-1666 area should be support. If we we’re to break that it would be a red flag. A DAILY/WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 1648 SUGGEST that this rally is only a counter trend move and would put the 1625 low in question. Otherwise the potential for price to move higher into Mid-February is still in play.
There is a minor cycle we watch that does favor a potential peak near the 22st – 23rd of the month that might give us a 3 day pullback this week. We listed the next short term cycle we follow is due on Jan 27th (plus or minus 72 hours) but it’s really Jan 26th. The most bullish scenario would be for price to peak on Wednesday and pullback into Thursday/Friday and even Monday and then begin another 2 week up move as the next cycle begins. What we have to watch out for is a peak on this cycle that is due and a potential pullback into the 8th to 10th of the month. That would be in exact line with the Chinese New Year celebrations that begins on Feb 10th.
The cycle inversion continues. Last January we just kept going higher right past the coming short term cycle and into February. That still is possible. The only difference is that last January we had an impulsive looking pattern and so far we have a choppy and overlapping one. It can morph but so far hasn’t. The silver strength is bullish and part of the reason that gold has been a bit weaker is there is a trade spread long silver/short gold going on in the market. At some point it will be unwound but not so far.
In summary, it’s possible to peak at 1695-1704 and begin a pullback into weeks end or even Monday. Wednesday would be the favored day for a mid week high.Wednesday Daily Bull/Bear pivot zone 1688-1692 (ideal 1690)
Weekly Bull/Bear pivot zone 1677-1682 (Ideal 1680)
the hourly chart
the one concern we continue to stay cautious with is the pattern from the lows have maintained a choppy and overlap look. The most likely failure point would be 1698-1704. Because we’re dealing with odds and not absolutes, the potential for gold to move higher towards 1711-1722 certainly can’t be ruled out. Seasonal factors are bullish, but I am concerned with the pattern. The purple trade channel line continues to keep prices from pushing above it with the 1695-1698 area as key resistance. Odds favor it either breaks through on Wednesday or provides a price failure from which a pullback will develop. What we’re not certain of is whether the pullback will just be a 3 to 5 day affair and then another 2 week rally into February occurs of if we make end up making a short term cycle peak this week and have the pullback last until around the 8th to 10th of February.
As we move to mid week Wednesday there’s always a chance for the high of the week to be registered. With the short term cycle turn window opening up the potential for a pullback to begin from this rally will be in play into the 26th (plus or minus 72 hours) between now and next Monday. However, with a cycle inversion in play it makes the call less reliable. As we’ve mentioned the one thing we’re concerned about is the price pattern we’ve seen since the lows. It has more chop and overlap then we like to see. For medium term investors we continue to like the upside but WON’T be off the hook until we finally take out the 1792-1804 yearly resistance. For now the trend is up medium term, but short term has us cautious around this price and time point.
BOTTOM LINE
The potential to make a price high on the 22nd and pullback into Friday or early next week is a strong consideration. IF WE CAN’T get above that purple trend line on the hourly chart, gold can turn down here. That is what the chop and overlap warn us of and the 1698-1704 area is the most likely point where it could top out. We hit 1699 last Thursday so that is the one concern we’ve had all week and it remains so as we enter Wednesday.
INVATA SA TRANZACTIONEZI GRATIS PIPSI IN FOREX
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
