Long Term=Bullish - major yearly resistance 1792-1804 needs to be exceeded on a monthly bass and close above 1840 to resume long term up bull trend.
Medium Term=Bullish - It takes a weekly close below 1625 to turn the trend Neutral. Resistance 1755-1765(Oct/Nov 2012 Resistance)
Intermediate Term= Neutral---it takes a close below 1648 to go bearish.
Short Term= NEUTRAL --- Need a close above 1681 to neutralize downtrend.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1692--1704 and 2nd tier 1715-1722
Initial Support 1662-1669 and 2nd tier 1643-1653
Overview
we got our push to 1666-1673 that was favored last night as we hit 1667 by time New York opened. But the GDP report propelled gold and once 1673 was exceeded, every pullback held 1673 – 1675 in spot (1675-1677 in April Gold Futures). There was an early test of 1673 before the FOMC and then three after it. All so far have held.
Thursday Daily Bull/Bear pivot zone 1660-1664 (ideal 1662)
Weekly Bull/Bear pivot zone 1666-1672 (Ideal 1669)
The hourly chart
The purple lines are the key resistance points. Note how price held below the line until the moment of the GDP report. I don’t think many planned for that drop and I surely did not expect it. That news pushed gold thru that purple line immediately and it did not stop until price got to the green 200 hour moving average. Just as the 200 day average is important to big funds and institutions, the 200 hour average is important to the short term trade. It’s pretty good support and resistance but that is not the main function. The main function is “trend.” Look how the last rally had to overcome the Green 200 and once supported (after a penetration test) the short term trend turned up. The retest spike low on Jan 17th is where our trade page went long at 1668.50.
Now look at today’s action. All of the 1st level support areas are forming at the SAME PLACE under the 200 hour moving average. Note GOLD is above the 200 hour and has been TESTING and trying to make it support for almost 16 hours now (since 9 AM New York Time). So far it is HOLDING. The first test of the 200 hour can be broken like it was on JAN 11th. In that case the purple line was tested and price immediately move above the 200 again to set the uptrend. If there is a pullback below the 200 now-- note how all mini moving averages below price are all turning up and arriving at the purple channel line near between 1666-1670. In addition the 200 day moving average is 1664 and our 34 week moving average range is 1666-1676. In other words the majority of moving averages have just been exceeded and now price is just above them. THIS IS WHERE the TREND for the next two weeks should be made.
If there were no NFP report we could say this is where the market SHOULD hold if a two week bull trend is about to develop. We still think it can but we are being honest when we say that if the reports are economically strong we can’t put it past the control boyz to go after gold. If they do and fail then we’ll get a strong rally regardless. And if the news is bullish gold and we pop higher only to fail the purple channel line and the supports we mentioned then the odds will favor that gold is going lower towards 1600 with the potential for more.
Odds favor that Thursday supports in the 1663-1670 spot area if we fail the 200 hour average.
What next?
The GDP propelled gold higher. Odds favor we consolidate on Thursday and the NFP decision comes Friday as that is usually what happens. But there's even a twist here. ITS THE LAST TRADE DAY OF THE MONTH AND THE DEC CLOSE IS 1674. Last days of the month can have big ranges. It is possible that this time we'll close near 1674 just above or below. That is also an OPTION that has to be considered.
So its either we have a big move or close right near 1674. We'll favor the close within 7 dollars on either side as the odds favorite.
If we rally on Thursday it will be even more important that Friday’s NFP is weak.
BOTTOM LINE
Hourly chart === we’re at the 200 hour moving averages and trying to forge support. 1663-1670 has lots of the moving averages and is key to close above those prices.
It looks like gold is about to decide the next two weeks. Because it’s been a chop for six weeks the only ones guaranteeing you a BREAK out are the guys who have been saying it each time. We only want to say it once. That’s why we have to have price and not just opinion confirm.
FINALLY -- ITS THE LAST TRADE DAY OF THE MONTH AND IT CAN HAVE A BIG RANGE DAY.
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INVATA SA TRANZACTIONEZI GRATIS PIPSI IN FOREX
Medium Term=Bullish - It takes a weekly close below 1625 to turn the trend Neutral. Resistance 1755-1765(Oct/Nov 2012 Resistance)
Intermediate Term= Neutral---it takes a close below 1648 to go bearish.
Short Term= NEUTRAL --- Need a close above 1681 to neutralize downtrend.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1692--1704 and 2nd tier 1715-1722
Initial Support 1662-1669 and 2nd tier 1643-1653
Overview
we got our push to 1666-1673 that was favored last night as we hit 1667 by time New York opened. But the GDP report propelled gold and once 1673 was exceeded, every pullback held 1673 – 1675 in spot (1675-1677 in April Gold Futures). There was an early test of 1673 before the FOMC and then three after it. All so far have held.
Thursday Daily Bull/Bear pivot zone 1660-1664 (ideal 1662)
Weekly Bull/Bear pivot zone 1666-1672 (Ideal 1669)
The hourly chart
The purple lines are the key resistance points. Note how price held below the line until the moment of the GDP report. I don’t think many planned for that drop and I surely did not expect it. That news pushed gold thru that purple line immediately and it did not stop until price got to the green 200 hour moving average. Just as the 200 day average is important to big funds and institutions, the 200 hour average is important to the short term trade. It’s pretty good support and resistance but that is not the main function. The main function is “trend.” Look how the last rally had to overcome the Green 200 and once supported (after a penetration test) the short term trend turned up. The retest spike low on Jan 17th is where our trade page went long at 1668.50.Now look at today’s action. All of the 1st level support areas are forming at the SAME PLACE under the 200 hour moving average. Note GOLD is above the 200 hour and has been TESTING and trying to make it support for almost 16 hours now (since 9 AM New York Time). So far it is HOLDING. The first test of the 200 hour can be broken like it was on JAN 11th. In that case the purple line was tested and price immediately move above the 200 again to set the uptrend. If there is a pullback below the 200 now-- note how all mini moving averages below price are all turning up and arriving at the purple channel line near between 1666-1670. In addition the 200 day moving average is 1664 and our 34 week moving average range is 1666-1676. In other words the majority of moving averages have just been exceeded and now price is just above them. THIS IS WHERE the TREND for the next two weeks should be made.
Odds favor that Thursday supports in the 1663-1670 spot area if we fail the 200 hour average.
The GDP propelled gold higher. Odds favor we consolidate on Thursday and the NFP decision comes Friday as that is usually what happens. But there's even a twist here. ITS THE LAST TRADE DAY OF THE MONTH AND THE DEC CLOSE IS 1674. Last days of the month can have big ranges. It is possible that this time we'll close near 1674 just above or below. That is also an OPTION that has to be considered.
So its either we have a big move or close right near 1674. We'll favor the close within 7 dollars on either side as the odds favorite.
If we rally on Thursday it will be even more important that Friday’s NFP is weak.
BOTTOM LINE
Hourly chart === we’re at the 200 hour moving averages and trying to forge support. 1663-1670 has lots of the moving averages and is key to close above those prices.
It looks like gold is about to decide the next two weeks. Because it’s been a chop for six weeks the only ones guaranteeing you a BREAK out are the guys who have been saying it each time. We only want to say it once. That’s why we have to have price and not just opinion confirm.
FINALLY -- ITS THE LAST TRADE DAY OF THE MONTH AND IT CAN HAVE A BIG RANGE DAY.
INVATA SA TRANZACTIONEZI GRATIS PIPSI IN FOREX
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
