21 Jan – 22 Feb
$500 Contest
Fxprizes
The 1698-1710 area is the most likely point where the market would turn back down IF THIS IS A COUNTER move and not a new trend.That is the most likely reason the market is fighting at this price point (1693-1698). If we get a failure here, then the most likely event would be a return to either the 1678 area where the green 200 hour moving average resides or a move all the way back down to the 1660 area where the red downtrend line and the up trending purple lines meet.
The gold trade was anticipating efforts by the Indian government to moderate gold imports, as increased duties and other discouragements have been implemented and yet international gold prices weren't markedly undermined in the overnight action. In fact, Gold seemed to take more guidance from the promise of additional stimulus efforts from the BOJ, than it did to the Indian duty developments. Gold might also be drafting some minor indirect support from news that some South African Congress members might be poised to push for even more control of the South African platinum mining industry, as that could signal increased tensions in that region.
With a weaker dollar and a revival of concerns toward Greece seen overnight, it is possible that gold was getting some lift from currency and safe haven sentiment.
The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of January 15th for Gold showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 151,218 contracts, for an increase of 7,565 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 192,906 contracts, an increase of 11,749 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 41,688 contracts, an increase of 4,184 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 192,906 contracts. This represents an increase of 11,749 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.
Mainland Chinese shares were off slightly in a profit taking reaction to a recent string of gains. Hong Kong shares were positive but some investors are now wondering if earnings will be able to live up to expectations that have been raised by persistent share price gains. European shares were off slightly in the wake of a renewed debate over the next tranche of Greek support. US equities were also showing some weakness to start the holiday shortened trading week. However, the US markets will see a rather active flow of critical blue chip earnings reports today and it is possible that earnings could temporarily take center stage over scheduled US data flows. Home Sales for December in the US we’re down 1% at a yearly sale rate of 4.9 Million.
Gold Chart
Since the lows gold has been following our purple trend channel lines and have forged a channel between the two. The low last week on the job claims report was a retest of the down trending red channel lines and we got a strong bounce off that level. But the key at this point is the double top from the Dec 13th high at 1698 and the 1699 high from last week. The most important aspect of the chart is the following.
The drop from 1698 to 1626 on Dec 13th is an impulse move down. In other words, it was a strong move down and is in line with the trend from October 5th, which has been a downtrend from 1798. The move back up from the lows has been a choppy and overlapping pattern and is best labeled as a corrective move. What that suggests is that the move back up looks more like a corrective pattern in a downtrend more than a new bullish leg up. In other words, it looks like a counter trend move. That is why the market is hesitating here because if this is a counter trend move, the most likely point of failure would be near the last peak at 1698. Thus the 1698-1710 area is the most likely point where the market would turn back down IF THIS IS A COUNTER move and not a new trend. That is the most likely reason the market is fighting at this price point (1693-1698). If we get a failure here, then the most likely event would be a return to either the 1678 area where the green 200 hour moving average resides or a move all the way back down to the 1660 area where the red downtrend line and the up trending purple lines meet.
Choppy and overlapping patterns usually do revert back to the trend that has been in place and that would be suggestive of turning down. However, choppy and overlapping trends can and at times do MORPH into impulsive patterns when key fundamental issues are realized in news events or surprise news comes forth.
The next short term cycle we watch begins the 27th (plus or minus 72 hours). These cycles are usually short term trend changes but the month of January has often been one where these cycles become continuation patterns. This was the case last January when gold had a huge move that lasted until the end of February. The one difference so far from this year is last year’s move did not look choppy and overlapping.
There is a minor cycle that is due today the 22nd. That would leave the potential that gold could peak today/tomorrow and pull back for a few days into this short term cycle of the 27th and then forge higher prices from there into February. At the moment that is the odds favored scenario. There are no absolutes, and we are trying to get very specific with very short term swings so keep that in mind. The other scenario is that gold could continue higher this week and test the 1710-1722 area. This time of year is usually a seasonally strong period as we have India festivals and the Chinese New Year celebration that begins on February 10th and favors positive gold prices.
In summary – gold has resistance at the 1695-1705 area at the moment. A move above 1705 would favor a test of the 1715-1722 area.Because we have a choppy and overlapping pattern, our best take at the moment is that is why we are hesitating here at the same level of the Dec 13th high and that it is possible we get a pullback into the 27th and then another leg up into February. Countering that idea s that gold has been hanging around these levels since Thursday and we can’t eliminate the potential for gold to burst thru 1700 and move towards 1720. Support for today is the 1683-1686 area and resistance is 1694-1698.
INVATA SA TRANZACTIONEZI GRATIS PIPSI IN FOREX
21 Jan – 22 Feb
$500 Contest
Fxprizes
INVATA SA TRANZACTIONEZI GRATIS PIPSI IN FOREX
$500 Contest
Fxprizes
The 1698-1710 area is the most likely point where the market would turn back down IF THIS IS A COUNTER move and not a new trend.That is the most likely reason the market is fighting at this price point (1693-1698). If we get a failure here, then the most likely event would be a return to either the 1678 area where the green 200 hour moving average resides or a move all the way back down to the 1660 area where the red downtrend line and the up trending purple lines meet.
The gold trade was anticipating efforts by the Indian government to moderate gold imports, as increased duties and other discouragements have been implemented and yet international gold prices weren't markedly undermined in the overnight action. In fact, Gold seemed to take more guidance from the promise of additional stimulus efforts from the BOJ, than it did to the Indian duty developments. Gold might also be drafting some minor indirect support from news that some South African Congress members might be poised to push for even more control of the South African platinum mining industry, as that could signal increased tensions in that region.
With a weaker dollar and a revival of concerns toward Greece seen overnight, it is possible that gold was getting some lift from currency and safe haven sentiment.
The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of January 15th for Gold showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 151,218 contracts, for an increase of 7,565 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 192,906 contracts, an increase of 11,749 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 41,688 contracts, an increase of 4,184 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 192,906 contracts. This represents an increase of 11,749 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.
Mainland Chinese shares were off slightly in a profit taking reaction to a recent string of gains. Hong Kong shares were positive but some investors are now wondering if earnings will be able to live up to expectations that have been raised by persistent share price gains. European shares were off slightly in the wake of a renewed debate over the next tranche of Greek support. US equities were also showing some weakness to start the holiday shortened trading week. However, the US markets will see a rather active flow of critical blue chip earnings reports today and it is possible that earnings could temporarily take center stage over scheduled US data flows. Home Sales for December in the US we’re down 1% at a yearly sale rate of 4.9 Million.
Gold Chart
Since the lows gold has been following our purple trend channel lines and have forged a channel between the two. The low last week on the job claims report was a retest of the down trending red channel lines and we got a strong bounce off that level. But the key at this point is the double top from the Dec 13th high at 1698 and the 1699 high from last week. The most important aspect of the chart is the following.
The drop from 1698 to 1626 on Dec 13th is an impulse move down. In other words, it was a strong move down and is in line with the trend from October 5th, which has been a downtrend from 1798. The move back up from the lows has been a choppy and overlapping pattern and is best labeled as a corrective move. What that suggests is that the move back up looks more like a corrective pattern in a downtrend more than a new bullish leg up. In other words, it looks like a counter trend move. That is why the market is hesitating here because if this is a counter trend move, the most likely point of failure would be near the last peak at 1698. Thus the 1698-1710 area is the most likely point where the market would turn back down IF THIS IS A COUNTER move and not a new trend. That is the most likely reason the market is fighting at this price point (1693-1698). If we get a failure here, then the most likely event would be a return to either the 1678 area where the green 200 hour moving average resides or a move all the way back down to the 1660 area where the red downtrend line and the up trending purple lines meet.
Choppy and overlapping patterns usually do revert back to the trend that has been in place and that would be suggestive of turning down. However, choppy and overlapping trends can and at times do MORPH into impulsive patterns when key fundamental issues are realized in news events or surprise news comes forth.
The next short term cycle we watch begins the 27th (plus or minus 72 hours). These cycles are usually short term trend changes but the month of January has often been one where these cycles become continuation patterns. This was the case last January when gold had a huge move that lasted until the end of February. The one difference so far from this year is last year’s move did not look choppy and overlapping.
There is a minor cycle that is due today the 22nd. That would leave the potential that gold could peak today/tomorrow and pull back for a few days into this short term cycle of the 27th and then forge higher prices from there into February. At the moment that is the odds favored scenario. There are no absolutes, and we are trying to get very specific with very short term swings so keep that in mind. The other scenario is that gold could continue higher this week and test the 1710-1722 area. This time of year is usually a seasonally strong period as we have India festivals and the Chinese New Year celebration that begins on February 10th and favors positive gold prices.
In summary – gold has resistance at the 1695-1705 area at the moment. A move above 1705 would favor a test of the 1715-1722 area.Because we have a choppy and overlapping pattern, our best take at the moment is that is why we are hesitating here at the same level of the Dec 13th high and that it is possible we get a pullback into the 27th and then another leg up into February. Countering that idea s that gold has been hanging around these levels since Thursday and we can’t eliminate the potential for gold to burst thru 1700 and move towards 1720. Support for today is the 1683-1686 area and resistance is 1694-1698.
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
