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GOLD CURRENT TRADE
(For Spot Use Two dollars Lower)
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Bgt 1 April Mini Gold at 1669.10 on 2/5/13
Use 1660.10 as a stop loss -If gold reaches 1674 undefinedbring stop to breakeven.
IF NOT STOPPED OUT ----
SELL 1 April Mini Gold at 1678 if given the chance.
If we close above 1705 we’ll look at re-entering but wait for an update.
Commentary
February history
Wedge Chart
The hourly chart
GOLD CURRENT TRADE
(For Spot Use Two dollars Lower)
===================================================
Bgt 1 April Mini Gold at 1669.10 on 2/5/13
Use 1660.10 as a stop loss -If gold reaches 1674 undefinedbring stop to breakeven.
IF NOT STOPPED OUT ----
SELL 1 April Mini Gold at 1678 if given the chance.
If we close above 1705 we’ll look at re-entering but wait for an update.
Commentary
February history
Gann Globe’s database of 35 years of gold price shows that the first part of February usually produces choppy prices and the latter half often results in a sell off. That’s the average and any individual year can be different but the odds favor the risk to favor a downside action beginning near this timeframe.
Seasonal chartWedge Chart
Gold is at the edge of the wedge – and the downtrend line has a multiple slopes that must be considered ranging from 1625 to 1660. There’s also a horizontal line at 1648-1655 that can be considered an important monthly number. The low of 1651 at options expiration during the last week in January defines that horizontal line. The lowest close is 1648. Thus 1648-1655 is an important zone and a break of that area would favor lower prices.
The 1st couple of lines are obviously the most important for this trade --- 1660, 1654. On the upside the 1674 area is now where the downtrend line crosses and this week’s bull/bear pivot zone is 1671-1675 (ideal 1672) is also right at that area. The battle of the 50 and 200 day moving averages is now 1665 to 1679 so the ranges now are very tight indeed.
It possible to remain in the wedge this week but that would mean the 1679-1687 area is the max to the upside (allowing a bit of penetration). Odds favor if we close below 1649-1654 the downside would gain the advantage. In fact anything below 1661-1663 begins to warn of downside potential. You can see how important that area around 1650 is also. After that the 1635-1642 area and then the 1625 area is the lowest wedge line.
The hourly chart
After four unsuccessful tests to stay above the red downtrend line from October and two price failures at the mini blue line near 1685, gold prices ended up getting resistance on Friday at the red downtrend line at 1674. To top it off Friday closed below the green 200 hour moving average at 1671. The most important lines here are the one we are on at the 1663-1667 area and then the red downtrend line at 1660-1661. For this line we give some penetration potential so 1654-1661 is very important support. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM is the choppy and overlapping pattern. It looks like its barely holding. On the upside we are now below the green 200 hour moving average. All in all, the odds are switching to favor the downside if we break below the RED downtrend line and close below it. ANYTHING is possible in this wedge but the risk to the downside outweighs the upside of we can’t close above 1675-1680.
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
