Long Term=Bullish - major yearly resistance 1792-1804 needs to be exceeded on a monthly bass and close above 1840 to resume long term up bull trend.
Medium Term=Bullish/Neutral - It takes a weekly close below 1625 to turn the trend Neutral. Resistance 1755-1765(Oct/Nov 2012 Resistance)
Intermediate Term= Neutral---it takes a close below 1647 to go bearish & close above 1711 for bullish.
Short Term= neutral--- Need a close above 1675 for bullish & close below 1647 for bearish. We closed at 1649
Support and Resistance(APRILGOLD – SUBTRACT TWO DOLLARS FOR APRIL GOLD)
Initial Resistance 1654-1661 and 2nd tier 1667-1672
Initial Support 1638-1642 and 2nd tier 1619-1629
The hourly chart
What Next?
Price hit the important trend line for a 2nd day running. Price bounced to 1655 yesterday and if 1641 can hold on the April contract odd favor we take another bounce attempt towards 1650-1660 again on Thursday. Resistance is the 1654-1662 and 1668-1672. Support is the 1640-1642 area and the 1619-1629 area.
The hourly downside is about as stretched as it can without at least a breakdown to 1620-1630. As you can see by the chart there is only one day on the chart in 2013 that has a lower intraday value and that is January 4th. Today was the lowest daily close of 2013.
No matter which way we look at it when price is at the yearly lows there is no way we can say anything but the trend is down. Price is only 10 dollars above the December low and 20 dollars above the January low. It stands to reason then that should be break below 1615 the chances for another selloff towards 1570-1600 will most likely come in play. Resistance is 1651-1661 on Thursday and a pivot of 1646 all basis April gold. Support is the 1619-1630 area and 1641-1642. If 1638 lets go odds favor 1619-1630 will be tested. If we hold 1641 then the potential for Thursday to bounce will be in play. With that said the trend remains down. Watch this price area at 1641-1642. If we make a new low for the week (under 1638) odds will favor lower.
What Next?
The trend is down and now it’s whether we’re going to support between 1619-1630.
Because we’re in a wedge and with the way price has been acting we have to be open to reversals back to the upside as we saw over the last two weeks when we were testing upside resistance. We discussed that the downside could be tested and that has developed this week.
If we get a probe to 1619-1630 on Thursday, and more so 1630 it would be an excellent place for a reversal back up into the end of the week. Another high potential is a low just above the low price points of Tuesday and Wednesday. There’s a minor support at 1641-1642 and that’s the spot to watch first and BEST SHOT to hold the lows from this week. We’ll favor a bounce attempt from1641-1642. The key will be how strong it is to move around in them.
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
