Long Term=Bullish - major yearly resistance 1792-1804 needs to be exceeded on a monthly bass and close above 1840 to resume long term up bull trend.
Medium Term=Bullish - It takes a weekly close below 1625 to turn the trend Neutral. Resistance 1755-1765(Oct/Nov 2012 Resistance)
Intermediate Term= Neutral---it takes a close below 1647 to go bearish.
Short Term= NEUTRAL/Bearish--- Need a close above 1681 to neutralize downtrend & close below 1647 for bearish.
Support and Resistance (SPOT PRICES – ADD TWO DOLLARS FOR APRIL GOLD)Initial Resistance 1671--1681 and 2nd tier 1692-1705
Initial Support 1649-1659 and 2nd tier 1620-1635
What next?
Gold is stuck in a wedge between the 200 day average and the 50 day in the 1660-1695 area.
Thus it’s a key week.
BOTTOM LINE
Gold is stuck in a wedge between the 200 day average and the 50 day in the 1660-1695 area.
Seasonal rallies in Feb have developed over the last four years and two of them started after a minor low at the end of January. Gold short positions have reduced to levels that are near where some nice rallies have developed in the past. Not quite there but pretty close. With options expiration, the Fed meeting out of the way, and the NFP report not due for another month, along with rollover into April gold futures, and the Chinese New Year coming up, it would certainly be an opportune time for the gold bulls to make a stab at that upper trend line again this week and perhaps launch a seasonal move.
Silver is stronger than gold and that is another plus when we see silver leading. The commodity index is beginning to favor the upside as well.
If gold can’t do it today, or this week, the downside will have a good chance of a hard acceleration down. Gold is fighting to hold the 200 day average and those holding gold stocks that are leveraged don’t have much room on the downside before margin calls start to kick in.
THE PATTERN SINCE LAST WEEKS LOW IS CHOPPY AND OVERLAPPING. Thus it’s a key week.
BOTTOM LINE
we are arriving at an important juncture in the US dollar, the stock market, the bond market, and every other market. Most are at key trend lines. Some on the upside (stocks) and some on the down (bonds). Gold is no exception
How important are these levels?
Here’s the chart I’ll leave you with today. It’s the Andrews pitchfork from 2008. Note the lower trend line. We can penetrate it a little, but this area is very important. There’s more than one set of eyes watching. The Control boyz are watching.
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
