Gold Trend

Long Term=Bullish - major yearly resistance 1792-1804 needs to be exceeded on a monthly bass and close above 1840 to resume long term up bull trend.
Medium Term=Bullish - It takes a weekly close below 1625 to turn the trend Neutral. Resistance 1755-1765(Oct/Nov 2012 Resistance)
Intermediate Term= Neutral---it takes a close below 1647 to go bearish & close above 1711 for bullish.
Short Term=Neutral--- Need a close above 1683 for bullish & close below 1647 for bearish.

Support and Resistance 
(APRIL GOLD prices – SUBTRACT  TWO DOLLARS FOR APRIL GOLD)
Initial Resistance 1682--1695 and 2nd tier 1704-1714
Initial Support 1660-1670 and 2nd tier 1645-1655

Downside supports

The downside channel lines are now at 1663 to 1670. We have the mini blue uptrend, the mini red downtrend, and the dotted purple uptrend line. In addition the 200day moving average is at the 1665 area.  In addition we have the 1/27 low at 1651 from options expiration and the 1657 low from the last day of January.  Finally the gold downtrend line at 1643 is the last line before the 1626 (spot) 1629 April gold low. Until we exit the wedge we cannot rule out the downside. Upside resistance

the red channel line resistance is now 1678-1682. Price got above the line in the London and New York session but couldn’t hold. The 50 day is at 1682 so it’s just above the red line. 

THE FINAL OBSERVATION TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT THE PRICE PATTERN IS CHOPPY AND OVERLAPPING.  If the upside is chosen then the chop will go away and price should accelerate higher.  It’s the same for the downside.  If the downside becomes in play, then price should accelerate lower.  LOOK HOW CHAOTIC the pattern has become as we get to decision time.  While the odds favor the chop to turn down, they are not as reliable at key turning points. The best example of that is if you go back and look at the May/June choppy pattern on the first chart of this report (daily report).   In this situation price turned up.  That doesn’t mean this one will, but he have to be aware of the potential.  In summary, we await the markets decision. 

On the downside we have the green 200 hour moving average at 1668 and the lows established on Monday at 1662 and the 200 hour moving average at 1664.  Thus 1661-1668 is important 1st support on Wednesday. Last week’s option expiration low at 1651 is critical to keeping the upside potential alive.  The lowest close in 2013 is 1647 so anything below that will set off yellow flags that the downside is taking control on the short and intermediate term.

What next?

Gold is stuck in a wedge between the 200 day average and the 50 day in the 1660-1695 area. Until that time price can go either way.  We say that because it is the correct analysis.  If gold is about to move higher the factors that favor such a move are as follows;

The FED meetings, the options expiration, the NFP reports are all out of the way.  As far as what is not out of the way is if the NEWS continues to be good about the economy, and the potential that gold can move lower will remain in play.

If gold is to rally in February, now is the time for it to make its move.  There’s a new 2 week cycle that begins between this Thursday and next Wednesday. There is so much neutrality that we’re going to have to wait for price to make the ultimate decision.

Bottom Line
The 5th of the Month

I want to bring your attention to a 30 day cycle that has shown up that involves the 5th day of the month.  The above chart shows the market turns since the HIGH of the year on October 5th.   Note we had a low on November 5th.   December 5th produced a low but that was one case that it only lasted a week.   January 4th (one day from the 5th) produced the yearly low and the lowest price in the last 5 months since the breakout in August.

Now we arrive at February 5th.  If this cycle plays out we’re either making the high for the month or we are about to begin an upswing. Since 3 of the last 4 signals have moved higher after the 5th it’s very possible to do so again.  However we won’t kid ourselves either.  Gold is very capable of turning down here.  Is just that when we weigh the evidence of bull and bear that the bottom line is that we can go either direction here.

INVATA SA TRANZACTIONEZI GRATIS PIPSI IN FOREX

 YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 

 Do your own due diligence. 

No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 

 King Regards