Gold Trend 06/March/2013

Long Term=Bullish - major yearly resistance 1792-1804 needs to be exceeded on a monthly bass and close above 1840 to resume long term up bull trend.
Medium Term=Neutral - It takes a weekly close above 1694 to turn the trend back to bullish. Resistance 1755-1765(Oct/Nov 2012 Resistance) Support 1500-1550.
Intermediate Term= Bearish--it takes a close above 1627 for neutral.
Short Term=Bearish --- Need a close above 1602 for outright neutral and 1620 for bullish
Support and Resistance
(APRILGOLD – SUBTRACT ONE DOLLAR FOR APRIL GOLD)
Initial Resistance 1584-1594-and 2nd tier 1601-1606
Initial Support 1564-1573 and 2nd tier 1555-1559

Gold Hourly Chart

The 1568-1572 area listed as support last night gave us 1571.10 as a low on April gold on Tuesday.  With the cycles set to go either way it comes down to this price chart. That GOLD dotted line is the SUPPORT and if breached below last week’s 1564 the odds would favor we’re heading for the red line support in the 1520-1545 area.  Even then this market has been so uncertain that it makes patience a virtue.  We’re in this mini channel but as you can see once again the PATTERN IS CHOPPY AND OVERLAPPING.   That suggests that the move if it is up most likely runs into resistance at the purple line dotted up line and the gold descending line in the 1595-1607 area.  So even though it’s choppy and overlapping we can’t rule out a move to that area.  The 200 hour moving average at 1586 – 1588 is also resistance and has been providing the high resistance points ever since last Friday. 

While the trend is very uncertain, the odds still have the downside as the odds favorite at the moment.  Like we said, the short term up cycle has been very weak and our best take is if we do go higher it has a good chance of turning back down on the next short term turn due the 11th (plus or minus 72 hours). When we combine the weakness and the choppy look it makes it very dangerous and at any time it could turn down on us.  If it does, odds favor that the lower red channel lines would be where gold is heading.  Any break of the 1564 area would favor lower to the red channel lines.  IF we hold 1568-1572 then the potential to run up to 1595-1607 is still a potential.  Resistance in London and New York will begin at around 1582 and up to 1589.  In summary, a push to the purple 1595-1607 is in play but it is fraught with danger. That lower gold channel line must hold with no more than a five dollar break.  Look for 1567-1573 as support (especially 1570-1573) and resistance at 1582-1588 (especially1587-1589). It’s a coin toss.  We’ll give the edge to the upside but only as long as price is above the gold trend line near 1570-1573 as we think that holding the last few days would prompt a test of that purple and gold line.

What next?

Gold has tested 1567-1571 for four days in a row. We’ve either established support and a bounce attempt to the 1600 area is coming into to play or a final breach of 1565 will lead to another probe towards 1520-1545.

BOTTOM LINE

 Wednesday favors an attempt to get back above the 1580-1588 area but with the weakness we’ve seen in gold during an up short term cycle, there is no guarantee of gold catching a bid.  The trend remains down and we think the only thing holding is that this short term up cycle is in play. There’s two points for a potential gold low.  The March 5th-7th timeframe or the March 22nd -29th.   Those are the two most likely times.  March 5th-7th has the potential to rally to March 11th (plus or minus 72 hours) and then begin the final move down to March 22nd – 29th where we feel that a low will develop and a 5 to 8 week bounce in the metals will be due. 

IF we close below 1564 then we’ll favor lower prices to continue into next week.

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GOLD CURRENT TRADE
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Our Position 
Bought 1Apr Gold on 28/02/2013

Entry: 1577

Stop Loss: 1552

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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 

 Do your own due diligence. 

No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 

 King Regards