Gold Trend 18/March/2013

Long Term=Bullish - major yearly resistance 1792-1804 needs to be exceeded on a monthly bass and close above 1840 to resume long term up bull trend.

Medium Term=Neutral - It takes a weekly close above 1694 to turn the trend back to bullish. Resistance 1755-1765(Oct/Nov 2012 Resistance) Support 1500-1550.
Intermediate Term= Bearish--it takes a close above 1612 for neutral and 1627 for bullish.
Short Term=Neutral --- Need a close above 1599 for Bullish and close below 1555 for full bearish.   A close above 1610 would favor 1619-1627

Support and Resistance
(APRILGOLD – Use same number for spot)
Initial Resistance 1609-1619-and 2nd tier 1627-1633
Initial Support 1578-1588 and 2nd tier 1560-1567 3rd tier 1542-1552

Gold Hourly Chart

Gold has two key lines of resistance.  The red channel line near 1610 and the thicker red line near 1620.  Those are the first two key areas of resistance that gold is facing on the upside. Just above that the 1627-1633 area is the last resistance line we have on the hourly until the 1660 area. However keep in mind the daily chart does have some near 1640.  For Monday it’s the two red lines we need to focus on at 1610 and 1620.  On the downside support is the 1577-1580 area where the purple line and the green 200 hour moving average resides that we must hold.

The bottom line is the banking situation in Cyprus is a game changer and there the risk to either side cannot be determined with confidence.  It’s just too much of an explosive situation to be gauged and when we’re talking about the world monetary system, support lines and cycles take a back seat when the big boyz step in or when there’s an “event.”  Nothing can be gauged with any guarantee. They could run this down 50 dollars and reverse it back up and there’s nothing we could do about it.

What more can we say.  We have a banking situation in Cyprus and a Fed meeting on Wednesday. A lot will depend on what Europe does with the bank situation. It should be bullish for gold but things are so screwed up that should there be a bank run we don’t know what they will do.  Obviously it comes down to whether the central banks decide that gold must be contained or not.  If there’s a dash for cash, anything can develop.

Bottom Line

like we said it should be bullish for gold. But so shouldn’t everything else that is going on.  At this point we have to see how Monday plays out.

 

YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 

 Do your own due diligence. 

No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 

 King Regards