Gold Trend 21/March/2013

Long Term=Bullish - major yearly resistance 1792-1804 needs to be exceeded on a monthly bass and close above 1840 to resume long term up bull trend.
Medium Term=Neutral - It takes a weekly close above 1694 to turn the trend back to bullish. Resistance 1755-1765(Oct/Nov 2012 Resistance) Support 1500-1550.
Intermediate Term=Neutral --it takes a close below 1550 for bearish.
Short Term=BULLISH --- Need a close above 1599 for Bullish and close below 1575 for neutral.   A close above 1610 would favor 1619-1627
Support and Resistance
(APRILGOLD – Use one dollar higher for spot)
Initial Resistance 1609-1619-and 2nd tier 1624-1628
Initial Support 1589-1599 and 2nd tier 1575-1582 3rd tier 1558-1564

Gold Hourly Chart

I’ve zoomed in to just a portion of the hourly chart and have cleaned it up a bit. The key resistance line is that purple dotted at 1620 and the one near 1635.  Those are the two most likely targets for the upside move this week.  Resistance is the 1612-1615 area and the gold dotted line at 1609.  The key areas of support is lines at 1596-1603 and the purple support line at 1590. Thus 1585-1592 is the other support point.  Thus if price pulls back on Thursday, those two points are the most likely place where support should occur. The weekly pivot point (not shown) is at 1578 and anything below that point would suggest the uptrend has been neutralized. 

What next?

THE COT reports continue to show that the FUNDS are short and the PRODUCERS are LONG and at their most bullish condition in quite a while. It’s not a timing element but if the funds do have to cover it could spark a good rally in gold.  IF we get above 1612 odds favor 1619-1627 as the next target.

Odds favor a pullback test of the 1585-1595 area has a high degree of potential for a Thursday pullback. A lot of that will depend on whether gold can get above 1609-1613.  If we do get above that area then the odds to pullback will be much less.  Above 1609-1613 will favor the test of 1620 and the purple line.  Thursday’s are usually pullback days so that has a bit of advantage if we can’t get above 1609-1613.

BOTTOM LINE

The uptrend is still in play on the short term and not due to peak until next week.  The COT short position by the funds keeps the potential of short covering if gold can get above 1620.  The one thing we don’t like is how weak silver is.  It made a new low for the week today at 28.40.  It bounced back quickly but the fact that we’re still below 29 dollars is troublesome.

The other issue to watch on Thursday is the situation in Europe and the Cyprus banking situation.  As of this update there still hasn’t been a final vote to go thru with the “levy” on deposits.  The banks didn’t open on Wednesday, so we’ll have to see what develops.  The short term trend is up. IF we get a pullback then 1585-1592 or 1596-1603 area the two supports most likely to hold price. On the upside, 1609-1613 is the KEY spot we need to get above.  Watch that area as the key point on Thursday.

GOLD CURRENT TRADE

(For Spot Use one dollar higher as futures currently lower than spot)

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Bgt 1 April Mini gold at 1605.50 on 3/20

STOP 1585 loss

Target to sell --- Sell 1 April Mini gold at 1633

Resistance 1619-1622 and then 1630-1635

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SILVER CURRENT TRADE

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Buy 1 May Silver 29.15

Target

Sell 1 May Silver 30.30

Stop loss (sell 1 may silver 28.30)

 

YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 

 Do your own due diligence. 

No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 

 King Regards