Gold Trend 25/March/2013

Long Term=Bullish - major yearly resistance 1792-1804 needs to be exceeded on a monthly bass and close above 1840 to resume long term up bull trend.
Medium Term=Neutral - It takes a weekly close above 1694 to turn the trend back to bullish. Resistance 1755-1765(Oct/Nov 2012 Resistance) Support 1500-1550.
Intermediate Term=Neutral --it takes a close below 1550 for bearish. 1625-1630 for bullish.
Short Term=BULLISH --- Need a close above 1622-1625 to keep uptrend going. A close below 1570 goes to neutral and below 1555 bearish.

Support and Resistance
(APRILGOLD – Use one dollar higher for spot)
Initial Resistance 1613-1622-and 2nd tier 1627-1625
Initial Support 1595-1605 and 2nd tier 1575-1582 3rd tier 1558-1564

Gold Hourly Chart

Gold pattern on the hourly chart has a lot of choppy and overlapping qualities and that’s not usually the sign of a sustainable uptrend.  To quote Elliot, it looks corrective and not impulsive. Corrective is usually a counter trend pattern and impulsive is usually the main trend.  So while price has been going up, these clues that it leaves is suggestive that it’s a counter trend move.  IF that is the case then the overall correction we’ve been has the odds favoring its not fully over.  Support on Monday is the green 200 hour moving average and the lower purple channel line.  With penetration that gives us support in the 1595-1599 area.  Additional support is the 1585 where the top of the consolidation took place.  The final area is 1568.  Anything below that and the short term goes to bearish.  With 1589.60 as last week’s low, odds favor the 1591-1598 area is more favored for a Monday low if the option boyz want to take prices under 1600 for the expiration (they expire on Monday).  If we get a pullback into one of these support zone it’s a consideration for a potential trade.

If the uptrend is to remain viable we need to hold that lower purple line or at the worse the 1585 area.  Odds favor the Monday low to be the upper support area.  On the upside the 1615-1622 area is resistance.  With the 1615.30 high last Friday, we should see resistance at 1613.50-1614.50 first will a pullback potential near 1595-1600.  With the options expiration we might see price just under or above 1600 for most of the day until near the end of the New York session.  That’s what the odds favor anyway.

  What Next?

Odds favor a pullback in gold to 1590-1600 on Monday and to remain below 1615-1620 until we get by options expiration.  The next few days are important for gold and how the cycles will pan out. 

Bottom Line

The uptrend is still in play on the short term.  All of the stocks and metals on this page are at least neutral on the shorter trends.  There’s still a lot of work to do on the upside, but it can’t begin until we at least bottom and turn.

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GOLD CURRENT TRADE

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Our Position 

Bought 1Apr Gold on 20/03/2013

Entry: 1605

Sell Stop : 1590

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SILVER CURRENT TRADE

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Our Positions 

Bought 1May Silver on 21/03/2013

Entry: 29.15

Sell Stop : 28.30

Bought 1May Silver on 22/03/2013

Entry: 28.60

Sell Stop: 28.30

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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 

 Do your own due diligence. 

No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 

 King Regards