Long Term=Bullish - major yearly resistance 1792-1804 needs to be exceeded on a monthly bass and close above 1840 to resume long term up bull trend.
Medium Term=Neutral - It takes a weekly close above 1694 to turn the trend back to bullish. Resistance 1755-1765(Oct/Nov 2012 Resistance) Support 1500-1550.
Intermediate Term=Neutral --it takes a close below 1550 for bearish. 1625-1630 for bullish.
Short Term=BULLISH --- Need a close above 1622-1625 to keep uptrend going. A close below 1580 goes to neutral and below 1555 bearish.
Support and Resistance
(NOTE JUNE GOLD NUMBERS– One dollar lower for spot and $2 dollars higher April )
Initial Resistance 1609-1619-and 2nd tier 1627-1625
Initial Support 1583-1593 and 2nd tier 1573-1578 3rd tier 1555-1560
Medium Term=Neutral - It takes a weekly close above 1694 to turn the trend back to bullish. Resistance 1755-1765(Oct/Nov 2012 Resistance) Support 1500-1550.
Intermediate Term=Neutral --it takes a close below 1550 for bearish. 1625-1630 for bullish.
Short Term=BULLISH --- Need a close above 1622-1625 to keep uptrend going. A close below 1580 goes to neutral and below 1555 bearish.
Support and Resistance
(NOTE JUNE GOLD NUMBERS– One dollar lower for spot and $2 dollars higher April )
Initial Resistance 1609-1619-and 2nd tier 1627-1625
Initial Support 1583-1593 and 2nd tier 1573-1578 3rd tier 1555-1560
Gold Hourly Chart
We’ve moved to the June chart and we’re still developing the support and resistance channel lines as it always takes a week or so to HONE them in but I spent some time today constructing them and they look pretty good as far as the “fit” goes. A little bit of tweaking over next week should make them solid. Our biggest concern and best clue we have is in the structure and makeup of the price pattern. There are two different types of price patterns –bullish/bearish or impulsive/corrective. The impulse patterns occur on the MAIN trend and the corrective waves occur on counter trend moves and price bounces. The impulse wave is strong and has a good slope to it, the pullbacks are very mild and they usually play out in waves of five. A good impulse wave is one where it usually stays above or below the green 200 hour moving average depending on the main trend. In a downtrend price is below the 200 hour moving average.
The impulse wave in gold’s chart above is when prices are going down. And you can see the last wave down with the characteristics I’ve described.
The corrective wave is choppy and overlapping, has a lot of false starts, is on a much lower slope and often intertwines with the green 200 hour moving average. It has the tendency for rallies within the wave to take place quickly in spurts and then chop and overlap for a few days and repeat. In other words the way price looks and is behaving in gold.
SO the chart is telling us that odds favor the correction in gold is not over and this so far is just a counter trend bounce. Not that we can’t rally, but it’s favored as a counter trend move. Corrective waves can last quite a while or have very short durations and they can break down at anytime. Once in a great while the MORPH and turn into impulse waves, but not often. We could stay in the action for the next two week cycle and chop and overlap and struggle or we could break down tomorrow morning. Here were looking at the short term and as you can see this counter trend is almost five weeks old. It can rally up to the top of the PURPLE channel in the 1640 area if we get an up cycle next week. If it remains a corrective wave it most likely will peak below 1700 and the next short term cycle would most likely bring gold down to the 1520 area. Finally, we have to be careful it doesn’t break today or Monday. That would allow this new cycle to be a DOWN one. Support is the 1582-1593 area and resistance is the 1610-1616 area. A close above 1610 should lead to the test of 1620-1630.
Thursday is wind down day as Friday is closed for Easter Holiday. Volume could be low and it could be a trade range day again like we say on Wednesday. However, a sneak rally or drop can’t be eliminated either. Odds favor a trade range day.
Gold remains in medium term correction. The short term is bullish but the price pattern doesn’t look great as its corrective. That favors another try and new lows can’t be excluded yet. There’s certainly a lot of bullish factors surrounding gold but the most important one ---price isn’t at the moment. It can morph and any event could alter the look and we could get an extended rally. But that’s not the odds. For now the short term trend is up. A close above 1610 keeps things alive and a close above 1625 would favor the new short term cycle to be an up one.
Have a great holiday. Markets closed on Friday.
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GOLD CURRENT TRADE
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Our Position
Bought 1Apr Gold on 25/03/2013
Entry: 1592
Stop : 1578
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SILVER CURRENT TRADE
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Our Position
Bought 1May Silver on 25/03/2013
Entry: 28.60
Stop : 28.00
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
