Gold Trend 19/April/2013

Long Term=Bullish/Neutral – the 1476 close last Friday was below the long term average (1480). A monthly close below 1480 would put long term out of bull mode and into neutral.
Medium Term=Bearish Need a close above 1680 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term=Bearish –need a close above 1480 to neutralize downtrend.
Short Term=Neutral/Bearish-- A close above 1404 and full neutral. 1420-1425 is key resistance. A close below 1320 & 1280 would be next support area.

Support and Resistance
(NOTE JUNE GOLD NUMBERS– Spot about 1 dollar above June gold)
Initial Resistance 1412-1425 and 2nd tier 1434-146
Initial Support 1376-1386 and 2nd tier 1362-1371

Gold Hourly Chart

Gold reached the 1400 area again on Thursday as the bounce continues. If we get above 1409-1412 the chances are good that we’ll see 1419-1425. Friday’s resistance begins at the 1398 area and runs to around 1402. Above that and odds favor a move to the purple trend line near the 1419 area and up to 1425 where a Fib resistance point resides. The Thursday pullback we were looking for took place in one hour where gold was pummeled from 1381 to 1335 but then turned around and as you can see by the chart went up for 10 straight hours.  THAT was the pullback and its complete for this week.

The resistance on the hourly chart is defined by that white channel line. While they can be penetrated, gold has remained along this line for a full day. Thus the buying pressure on this bounce so far remains intact. The shorts are trying to stop entry into the 1400 area, but the bulls have begun a buying line in the 1360-1380 area that is starting to gain a bit of strength. A push above it will lead to a purple line test near 1420-1425 and is favored at the moment.

So far the bounce hasn't established an UPTREND yet but it has established an 80 dollar sideways trading range. Thus the first step in building a base has developed. From a price pattern standpoint, the odds heavily favor that there’s one more push higher here before another pullback attempt develops. Given the fact that this was a manipulation event and the massive physical buying that is going on, makes the odds high that gold is not going to stick around these lower levels very long. Next week’s pullback that is due should offer a buying opportunity and odds favor that a two week rally is going to develop from there. We won’t eliminate the potential for one final low near 1280 but with that aside, odds are good for a low and a rally back towards the 1480-1500 is favored to develop. The key resistance level for gold is that BLUE channel line near 1480. That’s where gold is favored to move to next. Thus the pullback next week finds support we favor a two week rally to that 1480 level.

As long as we remain above 1345-1350 the bounce can continue. The control boys will try and defend 1400 for Friday but the physical buying looks to be too much to handle. Add in that the shorts have made their money so they are going to be looking to buy their positions back as well.  This suggests higher prices for Friday

What Next?

Friday is the “battle for 400” call to arms. The control boyz want to see a close below it and the bulls want it. Thus odds favor we’re going to spend most of the day fighting for it. With short covering and physical being sucked up the bulls have the advantage.

There are no major reports due in the morning so gold is going to have to forge it alone. The advantage it has is the physical shortage and the antsy shorts. A PHYSICAL SHORTAGE favors that gold moves back over 1500 by the end of May to the middle of June. Thus the BATTLE OF 400 is the likely scenario for Friday.

As long as gold is above 1355, the bounce remains in play. However, the 1355-1360 area is also important. A CYCLE TURN is due April 25th –plus or minus 72 hours, so a pullback next week would have us favoring a TWO WEEK rally to begin.

Odds favor the gold range on Friday to be in the 1370-1405 range. Above 1404 and we should see 1425. On the downside, 1377-1387 is support, and below that 1361-1371 and unless there’s another FAKE NEWS article gold’s bounce is still underway.

GLD OPTIONS expire on Friday but we’re so deep I don’t think it will make a difference.

Odds favor the bulls go after 1400 and conquer it.  The key will be to hold it.

Bottom Line

Ever since February I’ve discussed the HUI and the potential messages it was sending. I said in order for it to gain validity silver would have to be next to give the SELL signal. That occurred on March 31st when silver closed below the long term moving averages at 28.32

Then I discussed that gold would have to be next to break down in this liquidity crisis scenario. That happened last week. The final straw is the stock market. Should we have a breakdown in stocks, the likely hood that some event is going to occur this year would be greatly enhanced. If there is a “shock” event coming, it’s likely it will last until late 2015.

There’s still a major budget agreement that has to take place in USA and Europe better get a central bank organization like the US has where on entity controls policy and can print money with a wave of the hand.

 

YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 

 Do your own due diligence. 

No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 

 King Regards