Gold Trend 26/April/2013

Long Term=Bullish/Neutral – the 1476 close last Friday was below the long term average (1480). A monthly close below 1480 would put long term out of bull mode and into neutral.

Medium Term=Bearish Need a close above 1680 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term=Neutral –need a close below 1320 to return to downtrend.
Short Term=Bullish – New resistance 1487-1502 -- weekly support 1398-1407
Support and Resistance
(NOTE JUNE GOLD NUMBERS– Spot about 1 dollar above June gold)
Initial Resistance 1481-1490 and 2nd tier 1497-1502
Initial Support 1443-1451 and 2nd tier 1429-1435

Gold Hourly Chart

the last update discussed having moved above the purple channel line put resistance at 1448-1455 or 1470-1489 and the high at 1468.80 put us just a hair of resistance. There’s a Fib retracement at 1487 and the blue trend line at 1502. Support is now the 1448-1455 and 1436-1440. The short term trend remains up. It takes a close below 1425 to give favor back to the bears.

What Next?

Last night we discussed that if price exceeded 1447-1455 that the odds would favor 1470-1480 and Thursday got to 1468.80 and Friday’s Asian trade reached 1484. A new two week cycle begins next week and once the trend is established it should carry into the 10th of May. Odds have a high degree of a consolidation after such a big move in the 1550-1588 area on Friday.

The move up that began last week is still in play and it takes a close below 1430 in order to suggest the short term up move has concluded.

Bottom  Line

it’s been a long time since I’ve seen such a reversal and such long range movement. The key is going to be the physical inventory levels and how the new short term cycle plays out. Even if we get a cycle that gives us a two week pullback odds heavily favor we hold the 1260-1320 and we get higher prices into June.

 

YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 

 Do your own due diligence. 

No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 

 King Regards