Gold Trend 29/April/2013

Long Term=Bullish/Neutral – the 1476 close last Friday was below the long term average (1480). A monthly close below 1480 would put long term out of bull mode and into neutral.

Medium Term=Bearish Need a close above 1680 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term=Neutral –need a close below 1320 to return to downtrend.
Short Term=neutral – resistance 1487-1502--above that and bullish -- weekly support 1425-1435 and close below last week low bearish
Support and Resistance
(NOTE JUNE GOLD NUMBERS
Initial Resistance 1475-1487 and 2nd tier 1497-1504
Initial Support 1444-1454 and 2nd tier 1429-1435

Gold Hourly Chart

we got as high as 1484 on Friday before a pullback to 1447 in the latter part of the day. The short term trend that began after the low has not let up yet and it takes a close below 1420 to put it in jeopardy. Until then it remains up. The green 200 hour moving average sports that support area. There are two key areas to watch for support. That gold trend line just under price in the 1447-1457 area is the first and the purple channel line in the 1335-1340 area is the 2nd. Those lines are the 1st two key areas this week. Keep in mind the daily pivot on Monday at 1460 as that plays with that gold line also. The weekly pivot at 1450 does also. Always allow a few dollars of penetration on those lines.

On the upside, the gold horizontal line at 1487 is a Fib retrace line. There’s a minor line (that mini red line right where price peak on the last bar is near 1477-1479 is. But its minor, but worth to watch at least on Monday. The two key highs on Friday was 1481 and 1484. As long as were stay below that level, we’re still technically in a pullback since Friday. So that 1480-1487 looks to be the MOST IMPORTANT PRICE POINT ON MONDAY and FOR THE WEEK. Once price is above that, then we have a 2nd UP week on the chart. I WOULD THINK THERE’s GOING TO BE A BATTLE FOR 1480-1487. It’s the most important upside. A break above it and 1500 becomes next test. (1497-1503) it would seem by looking at the chart that it wants to go test that dotted white line and the major BLUE line which is the old support channel before the 1525 meltdown.

What Next?

There is a bucket full of economic reports this week and it all begins on Monday and the list is below. Most important is the FED meets once again. BY now, we see that their MOUTHS is what they are using. The reports are that they are VERY concerned about the deflationary aspects that have come up. Manipulation aside, we’ve been bearish the metals for a while now on the medium term and as early as February we’ve been saying that the HUI was warning of such an event arising. That is now the news and so the FEDS have to be dovish in this meeting and will do all they can to reassure us that they have the presses on ludicrous speed. The truth is that the forces of debt liquidation is very strong and the economy is not reacting because none of the money is for the economy. It’s to keep the bond market afloat with zero rates. If they lose that market it’s over for all assets. The other bail is for the real estate market as that was the tipping point that took away everybody’s ability to borrow. Now all the presses have the money going into stocks as no one can afford to borrow and if they can, they are not doing it at the moment.

The economic data is being twisted as much as possible, and they’ve just changed the way the measure GDP. They have no choice as the economy is about to rollover. Liquidity is what keeps the stock market going and not economic activity.

This week is kind of a showdown and the sell in May and go away is going to be alive if things look bad in the reports. Thus the FED will reassure everyone on Wednesday that the punch bowl has been filled with 150 proof moonshine. The control boyz will be at it with gold and the one problem they do have is the physical inventory. If they haven’t gone as far as taken it out and getting ready to put it back in and the physical demand remains this week, it could be a problem for them. Gold will most likely stay in the 1450-1480 zone on Monday. The fed meeting begins on Tuesday and the minutes come out on Wednesday. That’s if they don’t release it early like the last time. The bounce in gold to fill the gap is complete. The new short term cycles begin and last through this week. With the way things are, price RULES and cycles are secondary. We have a 65% chance of a pullback to test support. IF gold exceeds 1503undefined1508 then all bets are off and it can continue higher.

The trends are down and watch 1480-1490 as that is where the shorts will try and hold price. Especially below 1480-1485. Monday’s high should not exceed that area if the control boyz are in charge. That should be the peak area then. Support will be the 1460 area to begin but the 1447 low on Friday means the longs will be buying near 1450 if we get that low. Thus we favor 1448-1480 on Monday for a range.

Bottom Line 

The key is the inventory. If there’s a shortage then gold has a chance. The feds have gold low enough they can afford to say bullish things and it could rally. The past six months have shown that to be a one or two day affair and it turns back down. That’s because the Fed is now trying to talk their way out of this big slowdown that is occurring. They just might have to announce NEW programs now and I wouldn’t put it past them as the economy is in so much trouble. IF they do, gold could certainly fly. IF they do, and gold gets back above 1503-1508, this cycle will most likely invert and gold will move higher.

Monday favors 1449-1480 for a range.

 

YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 

 Do your own due diligence. 

No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 

 King Regards