Tronlink Wallet Airdrop: Gold Trend 03/April/2013

Long Term=Bullish - major yearly resistance 1792-1804 needs to be exceeded on a monthly bass and close above 1840 to resume long term up bull trend.
Medium Term=Bearish - It takes a weekly close above 1694 to turn the trend back to bullish. Resistance 1755-1765(Oct/Nov 2012 Resistance) Support 1450-1530
Intermediate Term=Bearish--it takes a close above 1625-1630 for bullish.
Short Term=Bearish--- Need a close above 1609 for Bullish

Support and Resistance

(NOTE JUNE GOLD NUMBERS– One dollar lower for spot and $2 dollars higher April )

Initial Resistance 1575-1583-and 2nd tier 1592-1596

Initial Support 1553-1563 and 2nd tier 1533-1542

Gold Hourly Chart

The choppy and overlapping structure of the price patterns kept us on the right side of the analysis that the drop from 1680 to 1555 was an impulse wave and that the bounce since then was a corrective COUNTER trend move. This analysis kept us from taking the long side on our trading signals and thinking that the overall trend had turned back up. The weakness in silver also was a clue. As we go forward the next support is that trend line that is coming up just under 1560. It’s mid- Week Wednesday so this week’s low should happen today or by early Thursday morning at the latest. From there gold should get a bounce on some short covering. In summary odds favor a low around 1550-1558. (It depends on when price hits that line). Resistance should be the 1675-1681 on Wednesday. If another silver selloff begins then 1542 gold would be the alternate low point.

What Next?

Our worries about the gold stocks since February turned into our worry about Silver in March and by last night our silver update was at critical level. We now have STRIKE TWO in our concern for the GLOBAL LIQUIDITY situation and a repeat of 2008. The Cyprus event that everyone thinks is bullish for gold is exactly the opposite. We’re just about finished a report on that situation. Today’s overview gives the basics of a liquidity squeeze and how it could actually work against gold.

The trend is down into next week. Odds favor a low this week on Wednesday (today) and possibly on Thursday morning. The 1555-1562 area is the most likely spot for a low this week.

Once the low is in place look for a bounce to 1575-1583. Short term cycles favor lower into the next Wednesday time frame.

Bottom Line

Gold remains in medium term correction and the failure to hold 1600 has put the shorter term trends down.

Odds favor a low this week 1555-1562 area (as low as 1542 if things escalate lower). Most likely low is Wednesday to early Thursday and a small end of week bounce.