Gold Trend 9/May/2013

Long Term-Neutral – Need a monthly close above 1490-1526 in May to regain Bullish status.
Medium Term=Bearish Need a close above 1650-1675 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term=Neutral –need a close below 1403 to return to downtrend.
Short Term=bullish– resistance 1487-1494-- -- weekly support 1439-1449 and monthly at 1415-1425---close below 1439 and bearish. Close above 1489 and full bullish.

Support and Resistance
(NOTE JUNE GOLD NUMBERS)
Initial Resistance 1477-1487 and 2nd tier 1497-1503
Initial Support 1453-1463 and 2nd tier 1437-1447

Gold Hourly Chart

So far the push back up from the 1440 area has been pretty good. A zoom in on the hourly chart shows we’re back inside the congestion area and we still need one more push above 1490 to get the upside we’re looking for. With the ideal cycle time arriving here on Thursday/Friday, we can’t rule out a push lower by the control boyz just yet on the short term.

What Next?

The bears had a slight advantage on yesterday’s outlook but did not take advantage of it. Mid week Wednesday was three dollars short of making the high for the week and as we enter Thursday it could be a LARGE range day potential. They don’t always produce but it’s good to be aware of them. With the daily, weekly, and monthly pivot at 1465 odds favor it should be an important part of the Thursday trade. We’re in the ideal 48 hours for the new cycle to begin. The window opened Tuesday and gave us the 1440 low and now we've gotten the bounce up. What we need to do is to get above this all important 1475-1485 area. Since we’re still in the cycle window, we can’t eliminate another probe lower. Once next week kicks in any new weekly high will significantly raise the odds that higher prices into May 25th area in play. The NEXT cycle point is definitely in that time frame. What we need now from that market is that move above the SAME resistance we've used for over two weeks. Until we do so, we can’t count our chickens just yet.

Bottom Line

we got the push back up, but gold NEEDS to deliver the knockout blow. The control boys know where everyone is watching. They know that the 1490 area is going to bring on buying. So they will try to contain price below it as long as they can. If they lose the battle they will retreat to the 1520-1540 area to set up shop. What they usually do is wait for a point where the short term buying gets exhausted and then they strike. If there’s a shortage, it will mean they are still desperate and so we still need to be cautious on the short term. With the key “48”hours now under way in the cycle, there is nothing to say they won’t try and attack to the downside again. It seems like the fight is going to be at the 1465 area where the daily, weekly, and monthly pivots reside.

 

YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 

 Do your own due diligence. 

No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 

 King Regards