Gold Trend 06/June/2013

Long Term-Neutral – Need a monthly close above 1490-1526 in May to regain Bullish status.
Medium Term=Bearish Need a close above 1650-1675 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term=Bearish –need a close above 1435 to return neutral.
Short Term=Bullish close below 1352 bearish--close below 1372 bears could take control. Got to hold 1353-1357.
*note – short term cycles due to peak this week. June 7th (plus or minus 72 hours)
Support and Resistance
(NOTE JUNE GOLD NUMBERS)
Initial Resistance 1405-1415 and 2nd tier 1419-1424
Initial Support 1383-1395 and 2nd tier 1356-1366

Gold Short Term

Gold peaked at the yellow channel line again on Wednesday and for once mid week Wednesday did not make the high or low for the week.

Gold is trying to form a channel in this uptrend but the look of this pattern is choppy and overlapping and not usually a bullish outcome. That doesn’t mean it can’t continue in this manner inside this channel line. As always we’re dealing with odds and not absolutes.

If we close below the lower white dotted line channel that is trying to form channel, price could retreat quickly towards 1350-1355. As we discussed last night gold has spent the entire short term up cycle in what has to be rated as a weak pattern. Until it changes we have to favor that side of the equation. That doesn’t mean it won’t change and get better but that’s the situation right now. The green 200 hour moving average has supported ½ dozen times and it will only take so much testing. It’s still support and the uptrend is still in play. Until we close below the channel line there is still the potential to move higher. It’s just that the choppy and overlapping look is one we have to respect as it has time and again kept us from getting bullish when we shouldn’t. As long as it keeps in the channel the trend is still up on the short term but it’s questionable and risky and as longer term readers know, it has many times resolved to the downside. It still has to close below the dotted trend line in order for the bears to gain control and it’s still possible that it will move to the upper channel line also.

1st resistance on Thursday is the 1408.50-1415.50. Channel resistance is the 1420-1424 at the purple channel lines and then the 1440 top of the channel line. Support on Thursday is going to be the 1383-1395 area but if we close below that channel line near 1380 then the downside lines get activated in the 1360 area.

What Next?

With the jobs report on Friday the odd are that gold should have resistance where we’ve had it all week---in the 1410-1420 area on Thursday. Support is the 1383-1395 zone. An hourly close below 1392 puts the short term in bearish mode. It takes a close above 1415-1420 for a bullish reading. Watch the 1385-1395 area. That’s where we price has to hold to avoid the upside. Gold will try and get back into the 1400 area and make it support. It has yet to do so this week in what has to be one of the strangest two weeks we’ve seen in quite a while. The jobs data on Friday should be the next “event” for gold.

Bottom Line

We’re neutral, choppy and overlapping on the short term. One or two days up and one or two days down. Trendless but capable of 30-40 dollar ranges in a brief period of time. All other longer trend remain down at the moment. With a cycle change in process , the next two week trend is about to develop between now and Monday. The last two weeks gave us upside, but it was a weak pattern. Once this next trend is underway it should last into the 21st of the month.

 

YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 

 Do your own due diligence. 

No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 

 King Regards