September 02 2011
September 01 2011
Gold is still consolidating close to the pivotal support of 1833.00 after achieving bullish actions from 1815.00 as seen on the provided four hour graph. TEMA 20-colored in blue- and Parabolic SAR are still carrying the movements from below; whilst the negative sign of AROON which appeared yesterday was fixed. Henceforth, the bullishness is still in favor over intraday basis, supported by the IM –impulsive structure-; noting that clearing 1833.00 will be a very positive indication.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1772.00 and key resistance now at 1895.00.
The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside, targeting $ 1945.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1475.00 remain intact with weekly closing.
Support: 1825.00, 1815.00, 1800.00, 1785.00, 1772.00
Resistance: 1833.00, 1845.00, 1854.00, 1867.00, 1875.00
Recommendation: Our opinion is, buying gold around 1823.00 targeting 1888.00 and stop loss below 1777.00 might be appropriate
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1772.00 and key resistance now at 1895.00.
The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside, targeting $ 1945.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1475.00 remain intact with weekly closing.
Support: 1825.00, 1815.00, 1800.00, 1785.00, 1772.00
Resistance: 1833.00, 1845.00, 1854.00, 1867.00, 1875.00
Recommendation: Our opinion is, buying gold around 1823.00 targeting 1888.00 and stop loss below 1777.00 might be appropriate
The gold markets were very quiet on Thursday, and basically sat still. The range wasn’t even $10, but many of you may not know that is actually how this market normally functions! The bullish nature of this market cannot be understated, and as such we only buy. We are waiting for pullbacks to get involved. The Non-Farm Payroll announcement will certain affect the market, so taking a position before then isn’t necessarily prudent. We like buying pullbacks, but after 9 a.m. New York time.
September 01 2011
Gold prices were slightly lower on Wednesday, where rising optimism in markets boosted demand for higher yielding assets, and accordingly, reducing demand for safe assets including gold, which put gold prices under pressure, nonetheless, rising speculations of QE3 put also downside pressure on the U.S. dollar, which limited the losses for gold, since gold is seen as a hedge against a weakening dollar.
Traders will be eyeing more data from the U.S. labor market with the weekly jobless claims, in addition to the ISM manufacturing, and if the data signals more weakness, traders are likely to increase their bets of QE3, which should provide gold prices with bullish momentum overall.
Traders will be eyeing more data from the U.S. labor market with the weekly jobless claims, in addition to the ISM manufacturing, and if the data signals more weakness, traders are likely to increase their bets of QE3, which should provide gold prices with bullish momentum overall.
The fell on gold markets was not significantly so. In fact, the fall received a bounce in the later hours of the session, and the resulting candle looks very much like a hammer for the day. The market is certainly bullish, and the problems in the United States with fears of recession, and the European debt issues – gold is a safe haven play in the uncertain environment we find ourselves in. We are still buying on dips – this strategy has worked most of the last ten years.
Gold first support on Thursday is the 1806-1815 area......
The metal is still consolidating below the pivotal resistance of 1833.00 as seen on the provided four hour graph. Indeed, trading is trapped within tight range, resulting in negative sign on AROON, but it is not complete bearish sign as AROON down-red- is still below levels of 30.00. In the interim, we can see stability below Parabolic SAR indicator that may fix the aforesaid sign. Anyhow, the IM-impulsive- wave consisting of five waves from 1477.00 is still in progress, encouraging us to keep our bullish overview intact over intraday basis.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1772.00 and key resistance now at 1895.00.
The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside, targeting $ 1945.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1475.00 remain intact with weekly closing.
Support: 1815.00, 1800.00, 1785.00, 1772.00, 1765.00
Resistance: 1833.00, 1845.00, 1854.00, 1867.00, 1875.00
Resistance: 1833.00, 1845.00, 1854.00, 1867.00, 1875.00
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying gold around 1815.00 targeting 1888.00 and stop loss below 1772.00 might be appropriate.
August 31 2011
The metal inclined violently yesterday, approaching the technical objective, previously detected in our last reports at 1845.00. The IM-impulsive- wave consisting of five waves from 1477.00 is still in progress as seen on the provided four hour graph, where we believe that the fourth wave has been placed at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the third wave started 1580.00 to all-time high of 1912.00.AROON indicator is still positive, solidifying the technical idea of resuming the upside rally of the fifth wave; whilst RSI 14 may cause some kind of fluctuation once the metal reaches 1845.00-1850.00 zones. Anyway, we hold onto our positive predictions over intraday basis as far as 1772.00 remains intact; however, focusing now becomes on 1888.00.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1772.00 and key resistance now at 1895.00.
The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside, targeting $ 1945.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1475.00 remain intact with weekly closing.
Support: 1825.00, 1815.00, 1800.00, 1785.00, 1772.00
Resistance: 1845.00, 1854.00, 1867.00, 1875.00, 1888.00
Resistance: 1845.00, 1854.00, 1867.00, 1875.00, 1888.00
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying gold around 1824.00 targeting 1900.00 and stop loss below 1772.00 might be appropriate.
Gold first resistance on Wednesday is the 1855 - 1869area...
The 200 dollar drop last week threw things for a major loop. The only chart that makes any sense from a support standpoint is the July rally trend line. The pullback removed about 1/2 the gain in just 48 hours, enough to bail out the option writers and price came flying back up last Thursday and Friday. After a pause on Monday, prices exploded higher today to the 1835 area in spot. Resistance on Wednesday is the 1855-1869 area. The last few days of August and first few days of September are usually strong days.
Gold prices rebounded to the upside on Tuesday, as pessimism dominated markets over the outlook for global growth after worse than expected data from all around the globe, especially consumer confidence in the United States after it fell sharply in August, which boosted demand for lower yielding and safe assets, providing gold prices accordingly with bullish momentum.
Traders will be eyeing key data on Wednesday, especially the ADP employment report, which could provide some hints ahead of Friday’s Non-farm payrolls, and if the ADP shows weak employment,
We should expect gold prices to extend the rally on Wednesday.
August 30 2011
Gold surged over $40 after a mostly flat session, hitting a high of $1,831.77. Alot of it has to do with rising physical demand for the precious metal as the festival season is about to begin in India, which is one of the largest users of gold, customarily used in wedding s and religious festivals. Also, spot prices of gold were pushed up due to risk sentiment waning ahead of the FOMC minutes later today and investors are uncertain of the outcome so they want to protect their assets in the safe haven.
Gold first resistance on Tuesday is the 1812-1825 area..
Gold prices fell back on Monday, as rising demand for higher yielding assets weighed down on gold prices, where traders were feeling optimistic over the outlook for economic growth in the United States after the United States reported personal income and spending rose above estimates, which boosted demand for risky assets, and accordingly, pressured gold prices to drop.
Traders will be focused on the FOMC minutes on Tuesday, as after Bernanke’s speech last week, traders will be looking for more cues whether the Fed will announce further monetary easing, and if speculations of QE3 rise over the coming period, we should expect gold prices to receive bullish momentum.
The $1,800 area seems to be supportive, and certainly the $1,700 area is. Because of this, we still like buying gold, but only on pullbacks. In the present scenario, we feel that perhaps a small long position could be established at the current levels, knowing the there is about $100 below here that should serve as support. If we go up on Tuesday, then we will feel that adding to our position is the prudent thing to do. We do not sell gold at all.
Traders will be focused on the FOMC minutes on Tuesday, as after Bernanke’s speech last week, traders will be looking for more cues whether the Fed will announce further monetary easing, and if speculations of QE3 rise over the coming period, we should expect gold prices to receive bullish momentum.
The $1,800 area seems to be supportive, and certainly the $1,700 area is. Because of this, we still like buying gold, but only on pullbacks. In the present scenario, we feel that perhaps a small long position could be established at the current levels, knowing the there is about $100 below here that should serve as support. If we go up on Tuesday, then we will feel that adding to our position is the prudent thing to do. We do not sell gold at all.
August 29 2011
There is a lot of volatility going both ways in gold. After a historic decline on Wednesday, the market slowed down on Thursday, and bounced back sharply on Friday to end the week. We are now at 1827.20, just below 61.8% retracement (1831.95) of the entire slide from 1911.60 to 1703.10.
The 5-wave structure coming down last week suggests the correction period has just started, and it was just wave A. Now, the market can be in a zig zag ABC pattern sliding further lower if the volatility can be maintained at such an violent level. This would be likely if there is strong risk appetite through the week.
Otherwise, we should be flattening, or even be developing a triangle if volatility is to quiet down.
After such a wild week, traders might slow down in anticipation of the Non-Farm Payroll for the US that comes out this Friday. Economists are not expecting anything strong, and in fact a slide from 117K in July, to 90K in August.
Traders haven't forgotten that gold is still safe haven king while the global economy continues to sputter, so there is more upside bias from the fundamental standpoint given a negative expectation of the NFP.
The 4H chart also shows gold trading above the 200SMA, and essentially respecting a rising channel support. Technically, the bullish stance is still there despite some bearish momentum.
Therefore, in anticipation of further consolidation and bullish bias, an ascending triangle could be the preferred structure.
Or we can have a symmetrical triangle that is tilted to the upside.
If the market has some extra risk aversion during the week, we might get a rising wedge development.
Still, it is too early to say since the candlesticks going up have been almost as strong as the ones coming down. Some slowing in price action will help the case for a triangle.
For now, if the resistance stands at 1832, we can anticipate a symmetrical triangle. Otherwise, if the market rises to 1870 or nears 1900 before finding resistance, we are likely to have more of an upside tilted, or ascending triangle. Only a break above 1911.60 suggests a rising wedge scenario.
If if the market at any point starts to hold above 1800, then our consolidation scenario could be short-lived.
It should be noted that, with most instruments, we tend to complete consolidation prematurely and are susceptible to continuation traps. For gold however since the global recession, corrections have been short-lived.
The metal inclined violently, approaching the technical objective, previously detected in our Friday's reports at 1845.00. The IM-impulsive- wave consisting of five waves from 1477.00 continues dominating the four hour graph, where we believe that the fourth wave has been placed at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the third wave started 1580.00 to all-time high of 1912.00. Now, we can see Parabolic SAR is carrying the movements from below; whilst the AROON is positive, solidifying the technical idea of resuming the upside rally the fifth wave during this week. A break above 1833.00 will be a very positive indication.
The trading range for this week is among the key support at 1700.00 and key resistance now at 1945.00.
The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside, targeting $ 1945.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1475.00 remain intact with weekly closing.
Support: 1800.00, 1785.00, 1755.00, 1746.00, 1726.00
Resistance: 1833.00, 1854.00, 1877.00, 1895.00, 1912.00
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying gold around 1805.00 targeting 1890.00 and stop loss below 1750.00 might be appropriate.
The month of August has been a wild ride for precious metals traders, with unprecedented volatility swinging the sector to record highs as well as record one-day drops amidst huge intra-day price swings. Gold futures were particularly unsettled during last week’s precipitous drop from above $1,900 per ounce all the way back to the $1,700 level in less than three full trading sessions. Bullish optimism following Friday’s G-20 meeting set the stage for a relief rally and the nearby gold futures managed to close the week near the middle of this range at $1,830 per ounce.
The rapid recovery after this first major setback for the rally suggests the top may not yet be in. While the push lower was dramatic, the willingness for speculators to jump in at the lower end of the price and drive it back above resistance at $1,790 per ounce suggests the bulls still have the upper hand.
The technical outlook serves as strong confirmation that the trend remains towards higher prices to come. Last week’s drop was a textbook breakout from the large Channel Up chart pattern illustrated here on the 240 minute time interval, and highlighted in last week’s Commodities Update.
After a final retest of support at the top of the channel near $1,915 per ounce, gold reversed sharply to test the bottom end of the channel. A modest bounce ensued, with a second test of trend line support failing at the $1,830 level. The result was a very fast sell-off with no retracement until the swing low at $1,702 per ounce. This one-way move of about $130 per ounce reached the target projected by Autochartist from the point of the initial breakout, with a subsequent retest of the top of the target area confirming a shallow penetration of the zone.
Upon successful completion of this breakout pattern, the subsequent rally has moved gold back to the initial breakout point- a 100% retracement of the decline.
While range-bound trading between last week’s lows and $1,830 is possible for the week ahead, a renewed buying frenzy is also highly possible given the current market environment. Gold will need to overcome resistance now created by the underside of the channel near $1,870 per ounce to regain it’s momentum higher. If this occurs in the trading week ahead, it would encourage the probability that the harrowing drop was indeed a minor retracement in what remains the strongest bull market trend in the commodities complex.
Gold first resistance on Monday is the 1840-1855 area
The gold market rose after the Jackson Hole speech in America on Friday. The market is bullish to begin with, but with the lack of doing anything new in the form of easing, many traders see this as a bullish sign on the economy. The forming of the daily hammer on Thursday foreshadowed the move, and a breaking of the highs got us involved. Being long of gold is the only direction to be, and now we are simply looking for some kind of pullback in which to set our stops below. Looking at this chart, we believe that the $1,800 mark should be supportive overall.
The past month investors have been hit hard from the falling stock market. Those who owned gold and bonds have been rewarded. During times of economic fear which leads to selling of stock shares investors and traders find safety in gold and bonds. It was this surge of money coming out of stocks that propelled the price of gold and bonds sharply higher through-out this selloff.
On Sunday I warned subscribers that any day now gold should start to correct and there is potential for it to drop all the way back down to the $1640 - $1670 area depending how much of the recent buying volume was investment versus speculative money which will quickly sell out if prices began to fall.
Gold prices fluctuated heavily last week before ending lower, where gold prices rose earlier last week to a new record high above $1900 an ounce, however, gold prices dropped back towards $1700 an ounce, as rising confidence levels reduced demand for safe assets including gold, which weighed down on prices, although gold prices were still able to rise towards the end of the week amid disappointing growth levels from the United States, and as the Fed’s Chairman Bernanke didn’t announce further monetary easing, which supported gold prices slightly.
Gold prices are most likely to continue their bullish trend over the coming period, especially since the level of uncertainty remains unusually high, as beyond the debt crisis in Europe, the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for global growth is also very high, and that should further boost demand for safe havens including gold.
