GOLD TREND November 14-18, 2011

 November 18, 2011

GOLD saw heavy selling in offshore trade as most asset classes were sold off last night on increasing concerns in the Eurozone and the effects a recession will have on the rest of the global economy. No asset was spared as the USD gained sharply and equities tumbled seeing commodities sold off across the board and growth and demand concerns grew on the night. Gold finished US trade weaker by 3.05% at $1,720. Gold was not spared in offshore trade as even perceived safehaven assets were sold off as investors moved to cash on the back of increased concerns in Europe. Having said this, Gold has held up very well in the face of such strong USD buying and still remains above trend support which resides at $1,690/95. Only a breach here will have us concerned. Remember, markets have been loading up on precious metals of late so it is not surprising to see a pullback even when safety flows should pick up. Now that longs have been flushed out of the market we should see trend support hold and another big move higher occur as equities stabilise. We turn neutral in the short-term until we see a close back above $1,750 but remain bullish in the MT above $1,690/95. Buyers should keep stops just below this level and look to buy dips towards $1,705/10

Compass Direction

• Short-Term: NEUTRAL
• Medium-Term: BULLISH

November 17, 2011

 Gold markets fell slightly on Wednesday as traders continue to mull the various issues coming out of the EU. The gold markets are decidedly in an uptrend at the moment, and have been for over 10 years. Because of this, buying is the way to go in this market, and we think that pullbacks are simple invitations to buy more at this point. The $1,750 level should be supportive in the market, and we will continue to buy dips until that area, and perhaps even the $1,700 level gets broken to the downside. $1,800 could be somewhat resistive, but should only be so in a temporary and minor way.

 Gold first resistance is the 1775-1785 area on Thursday..........
first support 1735-1754.......options expiration 11/22....
and open interest is very high.........BE CAREFUL........they're trying to take it down.....

 November 16, 2011

Gold markets fell slightly at first during the Tuesday session, only to bounce later as the daily candle printed a hammer. The market continues to be boosted by the issues in Europe, and now there is also concern about the Congressional “Super Committee” in the US not reaching some kind of deal for the budget. The EU could be printing Euros soon, and this should continue to push the price of gold to the upside for the foreseeable future. Because of this, we buy on the dips, with the $1,700 level being our “floor”.

November 15, 2011

The metal has showed bearish tendency suggesting that the bearish harmonic AB=CD pattern is still in favor as far as 1803.00 remains intact. The main test for the validity of this harmonic structure resides at 1755.00 which represent 23.6% Fibonacci of CD leg. At the same time, we see Stochastic is in need for a breakout below this pivotal support to keep pace with our harmonic outlook. Anyway, we look forward to witness bearish actions over intraday basis, but we recommend being careful with any break above 1803.00 areas and for those who can bear risk; our risk limit will be the 1815.00 resistance.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1695.00 and key resistance now at 1830.00.

The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside, targeting $ 1945.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1475.00 remain intact with weekly closing.

Support: 1753.00, 1745.00, 1735.00, 1728.00, 1715.00
Resistance: 1773.00, 1785.00, 1795.00, 1800.00, 1815.00 

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling gold around 1775.00 targeting 1702.00 and stop loss above 1815.00 might be appropriate. 

 November 14, 2011

Scenario for today

Elliott: common flat correction up 1803.03
It should trade higher to 1802.94 while 1774.01 or 1766.57 offers support. Stop loss below 1759.14 zone.

                                                    

Supports /Resistances

Res 2    1,817.8100
Ex-High    1,788.8800
Res 1    1,802.9400
Pivot    1,774.0100
Sup 1    1,759.1400
Ex-Low    1,745.0700
Sup 2    1,730.2100

Gold Technical Analysis 14th to 18th
 

Gold is now poised to challenge the recent highs of 1800. Will it break that level and continue towards the 1900 levels? Or will a correction take it down to the low 1700 levels?

Granted that the Eurozone crisis is far from over, Italy is now a new problem child, after Italy’s turn should be Spain. The ECB has no other bright idea then to print money and a war against Iran might be on the cards. With all these news gold is looking real bullish. 

However such a sudden rise over the last week should be looked closely and a drop to the 1750 levels shouldn’t be frowned upon.

 

Gold looks to challenge the old high of 1800. There should be a mini-consolidation here so trading here is pretty easy, a good breakout above the 1800-1805 level will see gold in another big rally, however if gold somehow cannot break this barrier, a fall towards 1720-1750 is on the cards.

Gold prices rose on Friday, as optimism reignited following the latest political developments in the euro zone, especially after tension eased in both Italy and Greece, in addition U.S economy broke the silence today with the latest estimate of consumer confidence for November, fueling hopes regarding the threatened economic recovery.

If truth be told, optimism was mostly seen among the markets on Friday, as investors grew more confidenced that Italy will able to carry out a credible fiscal consolidation. While in Greece, the former ECB president Lucas Papademos sworn in as the new Greek Prime Minister on Friday, paving a way for the unity government to take place in Greece. Meanwhile, investors will be focused on Greece as the Greek government must endorse the 130 billion euro bailout to avert default.

Traders will continue to monitor the developments from Europe regarding the debt crisis, especially amid the lack of major economic data from theUnited States, but overall, we expect gold prices to extend the rally over the coming period.

The outlook for gold remains generally to the upside, however, we still expect volatility to continue to dominate gold prices, thus still weigh down on gold prices, however, our general outlook for gold prices remains to the upside.