November 25
So what is the situation with gold currently? Falling all the way down to 1670 and now back at the 1690 levels. Is gold now poised to go up?
Currently gold seems to be on its way up, avoiding the continuous fall (no major rebounces on the red and green line), gold is currently poised to go up and challenge the resistance level of 1710. If it can’t break through that level, expect a fall to 1685+. If it does, gold will go up towards the 1720 level.
November 24
Gold prices fell on Wednesday due to the strength of the U.S. dollar, where fears from Europe continued to dominate global financial markets, where yields on Italian and Spanish bonds continued to rise, especially after a weak German Bund auction, which fueled fears among traders over the outlook of the European debt crisis, sending the U.S. dollar soaring to the highest level in seven weeks, which put gold prices under pressure.
Traders will continue to monitor the developments from Europe regarding the debt crisis, where rising yields in Europe suggest investors are concerned amid the uncertainty that is surrounding the outlook of the EU debt crisis. Traders will be also watching growth figures from Germany and the U.K., but we should expect gold to trade within a limited range, since U.S. markets will be off celebrating the Thanks Giving holiday. Accordingly, we should expect calm trading on Thursday unless we have new developments from Europe on the debt crisis, but if the U.S. dollar extends its gains, gold prices are likely to remain under pressure
Gold first resistance on Wednesday is the 1705-1722 area..........
First support is the 1682-1692 area........
Options expiration is over and the "option boyz" have returned the gold market back to traders.......
the Thanksgiving Holiday which is on Thursday is arriving......
Expect low volume on Wednesday........
Closed Thursday........
Low volume on Friday.........
With USA on holiday it would be a perfect time for "game" playing....
But will it be the cartel or at their expense.......
First support is the 1682-1692 area........
Options expiration is over and the "option boyz" have returned the gold market back to traders.......
the Thanksgiving Holiday which is on Thursday is arriving......
Expect low volume on Wednesday........
Closed Thursday........
Low volume on Friday.........
With USA on holiday it would be a perfect time for "game" playing....
But will it be the cartel or at their expense.......
Gold Technical Analysis 23rd, 2011. Reversal?
Right now gold might be going through a reversal up towards a bullish mode once again. It might have hit the floor which is around 1670-1680 and is now on its way back to 1800. If so, huge amount of money to be made!
It seems gold has gone above the sell zone and back into bullish territory, however it is still struggling at the edge of the inner trend line, if it goes decisively past that, then the next level it should fly to is 1730-1740 level before a smaller correction happens in the shorter. The floor might have been seen at 1670-1680, and gold is now poised to up.
Important update for the week on gold and silver for 22 Nov 2011
Gold and silver have another major fall since September. Here is a brief update on what happen and this time I will compare it with the fall in September as there are too many similarities and these can be used as future guidelines as most of the fall or correction happen when these events take place. I will also give a brief overview of the current market situation and the looming crisis.
This is critically important, clients & readers, please take this to heart.
Before the major fall of gold and silver price this year in September JP Morgan announced that gold will rally and recommend their client to buy gold and before the current fall Goldman Sac also recommend their clients to buy gold. Of course they are not wrong as gold and silver is still bullish in the long term but because the banks are mainly pushing for short term gold and silver financial product and the mass will usually follow the advises of the bank. The bank as a business tends to gain more by manipulating and shorting the paper market and racks in Tons of money from the masses. To them squeezing every ounce of money out of you is business.
Similar to the fall in September, It happens around option expiry date. There is always an issue with CME taking delivery when options expire. For every big movement up in gold and silver they will lose tons of money. Just treat them as an internet casino. They will only make profit if you make a loss. Why did I say internet casino? That is because they run on paper and all of the odds are stack against you the moment you step in. You will have a better chance if you go into a normal casino as compared to an internet casino where your odds of winning is already determined in their programs. Only those who know how to read and follow the tail of these people can make money together with them.
In September USD also rally while nearly every other investment falls including commodities Price of gold and silver in the paper market will dropped due to rallying USD because people find it more expensive to trade and because people are trying to cover for their loss in other part of the market.
On the other hand now we take a look at the physical market. With the physical demand of gold rising and central banks increasing their holdings of physical gold one must expect gold price to go up but price of gold in the paper market actually tumbles. Russia central bank is adding another 100 tons of gold to their holding this year. Demand for physical gold and silver have never been higher despite the falling paper price. Even when paper price fall drastically, physical dealers are increase the premium when selling based on real market supply and demand. The real money to be earned lies in physical gold as the futures and options market will detach from the physical market one day especially after the opening of the Pan Asian gold exchange where price will be able to peg to actual physical demand and pricing.
Back to the fundamentals, now let’s take a look at the world situation. Europe is nearly as good as dead. The USA official data about their debt exceeding 15 trillion only goes to show that nothing have changed for the better and situation in US will only be getting worst. Currently everyone is rushing into USD and they claim that it is a safe haven. What is safe about a fiat currency backed only by debt and poor government policies? What had happened in history to all countries that keeps printing money is hyperinflation and USA is heading toward that direction. Don’t expect China to come and save the world as they have too much problems on their hands to solve to prevent themselves from falling into a serious recession. China property market is already collapsing. The previous banking crisis still has the countries and government to bail them out. The current crisis is the country itself that needs to be bailout. We are dealing with not a banking default but a sovereign default crisis that is looming now. Even in Singapore the Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam has warned of a possible severe slowdown in the global economy. This crisis is going to make the previous one look like a walk in the park.
Like I say before and I will say again. The real money will come from physical gold and silver and I always advocate to my clients, families and friends that physical gold and silver is for the long run. Horde up when you have the chance when there is a dip to increase your physical stash. Our journey on the gold and silver bullet train is only halfway through and is far from over. Do not fear or panic as we know that our destination to true wealth is just ahead.
November 22
Scenario for today
Elliott: extended impulse wave down 1662.30
Market should not go lower than 1672.01 - 1653.92. After this move down it should go up to 1701.80 - 1713.50 area.
Warning: Imminent end of bearish move
Gold prices fell on Monday, where the U.S. dollar gained strong momentum against major currencies on mounting concerns over the fiscal health of the United States after the “supercommittee”, which is responsible for delivering budget cuts of at least $1.2 trillion over the next decade by Nov. 23, was reported to have failed to reach an agreement amid difference between Democrats and Republicans over raising tax revenues, while fears from Europe continued to dominate traders as well, which boosted demand for lower yielding assets, leading the U.S. dollar to rise and putting strong negative pressure on dollar denominated assets including gold.
Traders will continue to monitor the developments from Europe regarding the debt crisis, where rising yields inEuropesuggest investors are concerned amid the uncertainty that is surrounding the outlook of the EU debt crisis. Traders will be also eyeing the latest developments regarding the budget deficit deal and whetherU.S.lawmakers will be able to reach an agreement or not. Moreover, traders will be eyeing the second GDP estimate for the third quarter of this year, while finally, the FOMC Minutes are due to be released later on Tuesday.
Accordingly, we should expect heavy fluctuations to continue to dominate gold prices over the coming period, and if the U.S. dollar extends its strong gains, gold prices are likely to remain under pressure as a result.
November 21
Why did this fall happen? There are many reasons why, from speculation of manipulation to a correction, the fact remains, gold is still falling in the short term. How do we profit from this, that is the question!
Take a look at these ETFs, from a previous exposure of 2x the gold prices (the miners) to now 3x, this will most likely result in higher volume resulting in margin hikes/ or margin calls due to the currently falling gold price which might result in further falls. Yes this is minor compared to an overall precious metals hike, but every bit counts.
Expect gold for the next few days to go slightly lower to perhaps around 1700 level before a rebound. If the price drops below 1700 the strong resistance level or floor is the 1670-1680 region, unless a real margin hike is done, this level shouldn’t be breached.
Daily Gold Fundamental Analysis November 21, 2011
Gold prices settled on Friday, where the U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies after the ECB announced it bought bonds in the secondary market to ease mounting fears over the outlook of the euro zone debt crisis. Moreover, the U.S. leading indicators rose above projections, which provided investors with hope over the outlook for the world’s largest economy.
Traders will continue to monitor the developments from Europe regarding the debt crisis, where rising yields in Europe suggest investors are concerned amid the uncertainty that is surrounding the outlook of the EU debt crisis. Traders will be also eyeing the U.S. existing home sales on Monday. We still expect gold prices to continue to fluctuate heavily over the coming period, but overall, we remain bullish on gold prices.
Traders will continue to monitor the developments from Europe regarding the debt crisis, where rising yields in Europe suggest investors are concerned amid the uncertainty that is surrounding the outlook of the EU debt crisis. Traders will be also eyeing the U.S. existing home sales on Monday. We still expect gold prices to continue to fluctuate heavily over the coming period, but overall, we remain bullish on gold prices.
Russian Central Bank Aims To Buy 100 Tons Of Gold In 2011
The Central Bank of Russiahas purchased 90 metric tons of gold to date in 2011 and is on course to buy 100 tons before the end of the year, deputy head of the bankSergey Shevtsovsaid as quoted by the bank’s press service.
The bank said earlier it would aim at buying 100 tons of gold every year and increase the proportion of gold in the country’s reserves as a safeguard against volatility on the international financial markets.
-Morning Star Advisor
The longer term view of gold shows the current situation.
First and foremost, gold is acting EXACTLY NORMAL AND AS IT HAS BEEN FOR 11 YEARS. During the last "liquidity panic" gold suffered a drop from the top of the momentum channel to the bottom in a 350 dollar drop to the and during this current "liquidity panic" gold has basically had a 400 dollar pullback from highs to lows ---- as is currently at the "middle" of the channel line. So while gold is in a medium term correction, the long term price remains solidly intact.
The seasonal "upside" to gold returns for one more run before the next cycle turn. As far as the correction we've seen, we still don't think the final lows are in. If history repeats (and we have lots of evidence it does) then at some point in this bull market --- gold is going to TEST the 34 month moving average. When I am asked "what could make gold have a correction," -- I have from day one always said: "The only thing that can effect gold would be a "liquidity panic."
