Dec 09
Gold and most commodities slumped overnight with the preciously metal slumping over
2% with the ECB refusing to print money.
Gold markets sold off on Thursday as various factors came into play. With another round of selling in the equity markets, many traders found that they had to cover the losses in other markets. Also, the Euro fell hard, and this boosted the Dollar, with of course can sometimes hurt the gold markets as they are priced in those Dollars.
The breakdown didn’t manage to get below $1,700 – which was the start of the massive support area that we said must hold. Because of this, we are still bullish of this market in the long-term. However, the EU summit is presently going on, and any disappointment could be very dangerous for markets in general. It is because of this that we feel this might be a good time to give the market a few days to settle down before buying again. We don’t sell gold, it has been in an uptrend for over ten years, and has obvious support all the way down to $1,600 below.
The “buy on the pullback” strategy has been the one we have used most often in this market, and we feel that it should continue to be used – but presently we need to see a bit more supportive action as the daily chart is closing near the bottom of the range for the day. With this in mind, it makes sense to simply step away from this market and let the panic settle before we try to buy it again. In the long run, it should still be going up as all the fundamentals point towards serious concerns with fiat currencies, and we think that longer-term investors should definitely be holding gold as well. But part of trading is the timing, and the time to buy this market isn’t quite right.
Good news out of the EU summit may actually cause this market to skyrocket as the Dollar would get sold off. Because of this, we think that could be the catalyst, but again – the trend is so strong we are willing to forego a day of trading for confirmation.
Gold first resistance Friday is 1715-1727.....
Euro Summit Dec 9th.....
S&P warns of Euro nation downgrades.....
Fed Meeting Dec 13th.....
Short term cycles due to turn.....
Be in full force next week..... Gold and most commodities slumped overnight with the preciously metal slumping over
2% with the ECB refusing to print money.
Scenario for today
Elliott: irregular flat correction down 1689.62
There is bearish potential for a fall to 1689.82 while 1722.92 - 1732.20 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 1732.20 or 1741.47 is expected.
Technical points
Key point 1,686.5500
Entry point 1,721.2900
Elliott 1,756.0300
Closing 1,708.3800
Projection 1,669.1000
Trendline 1,730.9400
Trendline 1,730.9400
Ex-High 1,756.0300
Res 1 1,741.4700
Pivot 1,722.9200
Sup 1 1,689.8200
Ex-Low 1,704.3800
Sup 2 1,671.2700
Elliott: irregular flat correction down 1689.62
There is bearish potential for a fall to 1689.82 while 1722.92 - 1732.20 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 1732.20 or 1741.47 is expected.
Warning: Engulfing pattern
Technical points
Key point 1,686.5500
Entry point 1,721.2900
Elliott 1,756.0300
Closing 1,708.3800
Projection 1,669.1000
Trendline 1,730.9400
Trendline 1,730.9400
Supports / Resistances
Res 2 1,774.5700Ex-High 1,756.0300
Res 1 1,741.4700
Pivot 1,722.9200
Sup 1 1,689.8200
Ex-Low 1,704.3800
Sup 2 1,671.2700
Dec 08
UPDATE
UPDATE
GOLD was very quiet in Asia today after good gains last night in the face of weakness in equities and a rise in the USD on the back of safe-haven buying. Losses were minimal on the day and were only related to profit taking rather than anything major. Support levels held throughout the session and we have yet to see a test on major resistance which we wouldn't ex-pect to see in the thin Asian trading conditions. Gold traded in a $1,734-43 range and finished the session weaker by 0.20% at $1,737. Little to add to this morn-ings report as we have generally seen very quiet trade in Asia at the moment on the lead up to the EU Summit and all the headlines are coming out of Europe and the European trading hours right now so market move-ments are contained in Asia. Support at $1,735 held perfectly today and we have seen a small bounce off the level before European traders walk in the door. Offers between $1,745-52 are going to be hard to break right now but we should get through here by the end of this week and once stops are triggered above here we should quickly move back to $1,800. Our strategy remains the same and we are a buyer of dips towards $1,727-35 with stops under $1,700 targeting $1,800. This may take a week but this is our strategy for now.  |
Gold markets first fell on Wednesday, but bounced later in the session to form a second hammer in a row for the day as the $1,700 level continues to push prices higher in this bullish market. The buying of gold has been the only way to go for over ten years now, save a few pullbacks here and there. With this in mind, we have been calling for support at $1,700 and it looks like that has been confirmed again.
The crisis in Europe is taking all of the headlines, and many traders are buying gold back up in order to protect wealth. The rise of the Dollar has been slightly troublesome for the gold markets from time to time, but in general – they both have been going up over time. The recent low is higher than the one before it, so we are fairly confident in our bullishness in the short-term as well as the long-term. The concerns over fiat currencies should continue, and with the debt situation in the United States not being too much better than Europe for the long run, we feel there will always be at least some underlying demand for gold.
The past two days have both shown that traders are willing to step in and buy when the markets fall, and this is our thesis going forward. The buying of dips is the way to go, and the massive support level from $1,600 to $1,700 can be thought of as a floor now. The recent high at $1,800 is our first target, and we are willing to step in and buy on short-term dips, or even at this point presently. With the crisis going the way it is, there is far more risk of bad headlines our there than good ones, and either should propel the gold market upward as it not only serves as a safe haven, but also as a risk asset simultaneously. The recent action has been strong, and we think that going into the new year this trend should continue for quite some time.
Gold first resistance Thursday is the 1744-1757 area and 1767-1775.............Euro Summit Dec 9th........S&P warns of Euro nation downgrades.....Fed Meeting Dec 13th....short term cycles due to turn....and be in full force next week............
Gold prices slightly gained on Wednesday, where cautious trading continued to dominate markets ahead of the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday, where the ECB is widely expected to cut the benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.00%. Moreover, investors were careful ahead of the EU summit on Friday amid hopes EU leaders will announce strong measures to ease the euro zone debt crisis.
Traders will continue to monitor the developments from Europe regarding the debt crisis, where the focus will turn to the ECB decision on interest rates and the conference that will follow the decision, as investors will be eyeing remarks by the ECB Chairman Mario Draghi and whether the ECB will loosen its monetary policy further in the future.
Traders will continue to monitor the developments from Europe regarding the debt crisis, where the focus will turn to the ECB decision on interest rates and the conference that will follow the decision, as investors will be eyeing remarks by the ECB Chairman Mario Draghi and whether the ECB will loosen its monetary policy further in the future.
Accordingly, we still expect volatility to continue to dominate gold prices over the course of this week, as investors will be also eyeing the EU summit on Friday. But overall, we could witness more gains for gold over the short term.
Scenario for today
Elliott: flat correction up 1754.33
Currently uptrend should end around 1743.20 - 1749.74 area. A correction down to below 1727.22 is expected. A rise above 1757.61 will abort the expected correction.
Technical points
| Key point | 1,753.2200 |
|---|---|
| Entry point | 1,741.3500 |
| Elliott | 1,702.3000 |
| Closing | 1,741.8800 |
| Projection | 1,763.2200 |
| Trendline | 1,720.4200 |
| Trendline | 1,738.5500 |
Supports / Resistances
| Res 2 | 1,757.6100 |
|---|---|
| Ex-High | 1,742.9500 |
| Res 1 | 1,749.7400 |
| Pivot | 1,735.0800 |
| Sup 1 | 1,727.2200 |
| Ex-Low | 1,720.4300 |
| Sup 2 | 1,712.5600 |
December 7, 2011 Midday Metals Report
Dec 07
Gold markets fell during the session on Tuesday as traders continued to sell off their winnings for the year in order to balance books. The fall in the overall markets has been forcing traders to liquidate gains in order to cover losses lately, and this has hit the gold markets. The Street is still very bullish of gold, and 2012 should continue to see a rise in the market.
The candle for the session formed a hammer just above recent support at the $1,700 level, and this shows just how strong the area below is going to be for the bulls. Because of this, we like buying on a break above the highs for Tuesday. We do not sell gold as it has been in a ten year bull market.
Ok the sell off in gold is still continuing, at what limit will gold sell off until? I propose 2 limits, the upper limit of 1700 and the lower limit of 1740. Chance is good that gold should hold fast at the 1700, fundamentals are still strong, the most severe fall I would imagine is down to 1640, but below that, I doubt it.
Dec 06
The gold trade has been very good to a lot of traders around the world. It is because of this that it is suffering lately. The gains that traders are seeing lately are often the first ones to be sold off to recover losses from other markets, and the gold market is often one of the first markets they sell when they need to raise cash. With this in mind, it is difficult for the trader to remain bullish at times, but the last ten years have seen large gains and one should remember this when trading gold.
The recent action hasn’t been very encouraging though. The Friday session saw a bearish shooting star form at the $1,750 level and Monday saw the bottom of the range broken to the downside, signaling more selling at this point. The market will certainly have support below though, and as long as those levels are there, we aren’t interested in selling at this point.
The $1,700 level will be the first real supportive area that the market will test soon. It certainly looks very frail at this point, but only in the short-term. The entire area between $1,600 and $1,700 is one massive support level and should be a great area to buy the market going forward. The market has an extremely bullish tone to it in the long run, and we are only willing to buy overall because of this. In order for us to start selling, we would need to see a close below the $1,600 level as this would represent a massive breakdown in an otherwise massively bullish market.
The fiat currencies around the world are not loved at this point, and because of this we think the gold markets will continue to get bid in the long run. The market should find the above mentioned levels very supportive, and we want to find supportive candles in that zone in order to buy. Once this happens, we will not hesitate to buy this market. The next couple of days could still have a negative tone, so we will simply wait for our opportunity.
Dec 05
Gold markets gained a bit on Friday as traders continue to push the envelope of the “risk on” trade. The recent move has been strong, and the candle did fizzle a bit towards the end of the session. With this in mind, it looks likely that we are about to see a pullback in this market. As far as we are concerned, this is good news. It will allow us to buy at cheaper prices, and we are willing to buy supportive candle below as long as we are over the $1,650 level.
Gold prices slightly gained on Friday, as investors sought risky assets after the jobs report from the United States showed unemployment fell in November to 8.6% from 9.0%, while investors were also hopeful that EU leaders are working on plans to ease the European debt crisis, which provided gold prices with some bullish momentum.
Traders will continue to monitor the developments from Europe regarding the debt crisis, where rising yields in Europe, especially in Italy suggest investors are concerned amid the uncertainty that is surrounding the outlook of the EU debt crisis.
Accordingly, we should expect more fluctuations in prices, but if the current wave of optimism prevails, we should expect gold prices to extend their gains, but we should note that the level of uncertainty is very high, and investors are ought to remain cautious.
