December 16 2011
Gold first resistance is 1596-1612 on Friday...
Support is 1555-1565...
GOLD continued to recover recent losses in Asia trade today as equities pushed higher on the back of better data in the US last night and short covering going into the weekend. The AUD pushed firmly higher back towards parity but the Euro remained under pressure which capped any big gains through resistance on the day. Gold traded in a $1,569-87 range and finished the session stronger by 1.40% at $1,586. Gold is still consolidating after recently heavy selling and now that we are seeing some consolidation above major support this should entice fresh buying interest to return. Hedge funds have been unwinding longs as stops were triggered and real demand has not yet returned but it looks as this may change tonight and next week if equities settle and the USD gives back some of the recent gains. We have seen this before but in this situation we must see the Euro find some support to push commodities higher as traders and investors are not focusing on the US and improving data right now and rather on Europe. We turn bullish in the ST as we see bullish divergence and a bit of a base forming above key support at $1,532. A clear break above $1,595 and we should be headed back towards $1,642. Back above here and we are MT bulls again. We remain bullish fundamentally but have to remain sidelined and cautious for now. Support at $1,560 should hold firm for now.
Compass Direction
- Short-Term: NEUTRAL
- Medium-Term: BULLISH
SPOT GOLD closed lower for the fourth day in a row on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The lowrange close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible nearterm. If it extends this week's decline, September's low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
December 15 2011
Gold first resistance is 1590-1612 on Thursday...
Gold in global selloff...
US Dollar hit above 80 at a one year high...
Gold is arriving at a long term time and price point. The 26 week cycle is coming due in February. 2009 and 2010 provided a February low for the year. But it isn't always like that. Sometimes it produces a high. But if you'll notice, It's usually a MAJOR TURN POINT FOR THE YEAR.
The break of the upper gold channel line and the lower dotted momentum channel has produced a tremendous drop. This usually the case when the long term channels are hit. The huge rally up last July was a break of the upper gold channel line to the upside and the result was huge on the upside. The same is happening now, huge to the downside. We say gold is acting normal because this is what it did in the last liquidity crunch in 2008.
The next long term support is the 1448 area where the long term 38% retrace area resides. Additional support is the fair price line near 1500 and the adaptive average at 1552. (All prices spot gold).
Gold Technical Analysis 15th & 16th December 2011.
Do not Panic
The gold bull run is not over. Not by a long shot. This is just a technical correction due to the fact of the deepening crisis of the Eurozone. We are entering into a more volatile phase of the secular bull market. Volatility just means financial assets on sale more frequently.
The price of gold has flirted with the black uptrend line before and penetrated the 200 day moving average, but that does not mean the gold bull run is over. This currently correction though not completely predictable is still normal in a bull market moving up. This is called the wall of worry. Expect more falls in gold to 1590-1610 before we can perhaps call it a day to this sell off.
Hooray for physical gold investors in a good time to accumulate the metal, mixed reactions for traders depending if you longed or shorted this big move.
Lets put things into perspective.
Nothing goes up in a straight line, not even a rocket to the moon. There are ‘vibrations’ or corrections on the way up, take a look, the average correction is around 20%. We are currently down 10% from the 1800 levels ( or 14.2% from the 1900 level depending on how you want to look at it). This correction is perfectly natural, in fact it is lower then the previous corrections.
Will gold go lower in the short term? Possibly. Will gold recover in the long term with such undisciplined fiscal policies by nations? Definitely. Although we are in a bit of a liquidity problem, this is not as major compared to the big finale coming which could well be in a full-blown currency crisis.
December 14 2011
European Commodity Report: Gold
GOLD managed to recover some of the early morning losses seen in electronic trade in the US after the FOMC disappointed which lead to commodities being sold down along with equities and the USD gained. However, on the re-open in Asia we saw buying interest return and we managed to post some good gains as equities moved off the lows and the USD consolidated. Gold traded in a $1,622- 42 range and finished the session higher by 0.50% at $1,640. Gold prices have come along way in recent sessions and we feel as though this move has been overdone and we should now start to see some buying interest return and if the USD gives up some of the recent gains and equities at least bounce we should see a move back towards $1,650 to start and then $1,700 which is now key resistance. Having said this, below $1,600 and we are in trouble with $1,585 in focus and below here $1,535 is on the cards. We must maintain closes above $1,600 for sentiment to improve and for the tend to remain in tact. The Daily and weekly charts look concerning but we have seen this before and if a run higher is going to occur it should be either tonight or tomorrow. Our fundamental view stays the same for now so that is why we are not short and rather wait for a bottom to get long again. If trading pure technicals we would still be short but bullish divergence is form g so we should see at least bounce. Resistance sits initially at $1,642 with a break testing $1,653. Above here and there is much more room to the upside.
Compass Direction
- Short-Term: NEUTRAL
- Medium-Term: BULLISH
Gold first resistance is 1666-1683 on Wednesday ...
Opec meeting on Wednesday...
Straight of Hormuz in spotlight with Iran and USA saber rattling...
Gold important support is 1599-1619 area...
Gold prices fell on Tuesday, where traders will be eyeing the FOMC rate decision later on Tuesday, which weighed down on gold prices, knowing that the majority of analysts expect the FOMC to leave the current monetary policy unchanged, while on Wednesday, traders will be following the Import Price Index from the United States.
Traders will continue to monitor the developments from the 17-bloc euro nation and the European leader’ latest moves to contain the debt crisis, where we expect volatility to persist this week.
Accordingly, we should expect more fluctuations for gold, but should the current pessimism persist, we should expect gold prices to extend the rallies, however, the level of uncertainty is very high, and investors are ought to remain cautious.
One more dip to 1627.10 - 1610.10 is likely followed by a grind higher to 1654.82 - 1665.55. After which it can resume its downtrend.
Warning: Imminent end of bearish move
Technical Points
Key point 1,617.7600
Entry point 1,638.1900
Elliott 1,756.0300
Closing 1,631.5500
Projection 1,590.0100
Trendline 1,676.7400
Trendline 1,652.1200
Supports / Resistances
Res 2 1,699.5500
Ex-High 1,678.1000
Res 1 1,665.5500
Pivot 1,644.1000
Sup 1 1,610.1000
Ex-Low 1,622.6500
Sup 2 1,588.6500
December 13 2011
Gold markets fell hard on Monday as the trading world was rocked by several negative headlines, not the least of which was the possible downgrading of the EU countries by Moody’s. The possible downgrade by two of the three major credit agencies is enough to spook the markets, and the commodities markets were all hit hard as a result.
The level that the market sits at presently is just above the $1,650 level, but well within our support band between the $1,600 and $1,700 level. We are still keen on owning gold long term, but at this point in time, the markets will need to settle down – something we haven’t seen yet. The situation in Europe will continue to increase the volatility in all markets, and ironically – eventually drive the price of gold higher as it goes back to the “safety trade” that it can sometimes be. While this certainly hasn’t been the case lately, the argument will still hold over time that when push comes to shove, traders like owning some gold as the uncertainty increases around the world.
With this in mind, we are simply waiting to see that all-important support area come into play. While we are in it, we are just skimming the top of it and could see lower prices first. The next couple of sessions could be somewhat rocky for the markets in general, and as such we are weary of taking the trade until a couple of calm days return to the markets. With the situation in Europe seemingly getting worse, it could be a bit of a wait, but the long-term trend and this massive support area simply cannot be ignored enough to compel us to get short of gold. The last ten years have been overwhelmingly positive for the market, and as such we can only buy at this point. The formation on the daily chart of a hammer, bullish engulfing candle, or something of that sort is what we will need to see in this area to buy. Preferably after a few days of tight ranges, we will get that candel.
Gold first resistance is 1669-1683 on Tuesday....USA FED Meeting Dec 13th
Elliott: elongated flat resistance in downtrend 1681.78
Market should not go lower than 1661.91 - 1644.21
After this move down it should go up to 1690.76 - 1701.91 area.
Warning: End of trend - Imminent end of bearish move
Technical points
Key point 1,659.2900
Entry point1,678.6300
Elliott 1,756.0300
Closing 1,666.5000
Projection 1,635.9000
Trendline 1,701.4100
Trendline 1,705.8500
Supports / Resistances
Res 2 1,737.3200
Ex-High 1,715.0300
Res 1 1,701.9100
Pivot 1,679.6200
Sup 1 1,644.2100
Ex-Low 1,657.3200
Sup 2 1,621.9200
European Commodity Report: Gold
December 12 2011
GOLD took a beating in Asia trade today pushing through support at $1,700 on the back of nothing. There was no real reason for the move today and we put this down to poor liquidity in Monday morning trade and rebalancing of books by fund managers going into years end. This is most likely a false break and if we see a push higher tonight then we can confirm that this was nothing but a chance to trip stops in Asia and get long at lower levels. Gold traded in a $1,684-$1,715 range and finished the session weaker by 1.20% at $1,694. This looks to us like a false break of support as currencies barely moved and equities were steady when the sell-off occurred in Asia today. It was also interesting to note that we saw a similar sell-off in Silver earlier in the session suggest to us that it was an order rather than any real fundamental move. We turn neutral for tonight to see if we can confirm that this was a false move and any move higher back to $1,710/15 in Europe or the US will signal just this. However, if we do see follow through selling push through $1,665 then we could be in for further selling back towards major support down at $1,600. We are seeing some bullish divergence here and favour buying dips still as support at $1,665/75 remains in tact. Offers are initially at $1,700 and the $1,710/15 should see strong selling interest return with a break clarifying that today was a false move.
Compass Direction- Short-Term: NEUTRAL
- Medium-Term: BULLISH
December 12 2011
Gold first resistance is the 1725 - 1737 area
Watch 1701-1710 Sunday Evening into London Monday AM session if 1701 breaks the 1666-1678 area will be next support
Euro Summit this weekend
S&P warns of Euro nation downgrades
USA FED Meeting Dec 13th
Gold first resistance is the 1725 - 1737 area
Watch 1701-1710 Sunday Evening into London Monday AM session if 1701 breaks the 1666-1678 area will be next support
Euro Summit this weekend
S&P warns of Euro nation downgrades
USA FED Meeting Dec 13th
Elliott: flat correction down 1702.30
One more dip to 1700.51 - 1690.95 is likely followed by a grind higher to 1722.32.
One more dip to 1700.51 - 1690.95 is likely followed by a grind higher to 1722.32.
Technical points
Key point 1,708.3900
Entry point 1,702.3600
Elliott 1,756.0300
Closing 1,711.2000
Projection 1,702.3000
Trendline 1,724.2000
Trendline 1,692.3700
Key point 1,708.3900
Entry point 1,702.3600
Elliott 1,756.0300
Closing 1,711.2000
Projection 1,702.3000
Trendline 1,724.2000
Trendline 1,692.3700
Supports / Resistances
Res 2 1,733.4500
Ex-High 1,724.2000
Res 1 1,722.3200
Pivot 1,713.0700
Sup 1 1,701.9500
Ex-Low 1,703.8200
Sup 2 1,692.7000
Gold Fundamental Analysis December 12, 2011
Gold prices gained slightly on Friday, with optimism spread through markets after the European leaders were able to create a strong firepower to stop the debt crisis. Next week, we will watch European leaders finalize their comprehensive plan.
Traders will continue to monitor the latest developments from Europe, looking up to the credible efforts of European nations, where we expect volatility to persist through the sessions this week, especially with eyes wide-opened on the European bond auctions, hoping bond yields will fall this time after European leaders agreed to drop the private sector’s involvement in the cost of bailouts needed to safeguard Europe’s indebted nations from falling down.
Traders will continue to monitor the latest developments from Europe, looking up to the credible efforts of European nations, where we expect volatility to persist through the sessions this week, especially with eyes wide-opened on the European bond auctions, hoping bond yields will fall this time after European leaders agreed to drop the private sector’s involvement in the cost of bailouts needed to safeguard Europe’s indebted nations from falling down.
Accordingly, we should expect more fluctuations in prices, but should the current optimism persist, we should expect gold prices to extend the rallies, however, the level of uncertainty is very high, and investors are ought to remain cautious.
December 11 2011
Gold is arriving at a long term time and price point. The 26 week cycle is coming due in February. 2009 and 2010 provided a February low for the year. But it isn't always like that. Sometimes it produces a high. But if you'll notice, It's usually a MAJOR TURN POINT FOR THE YEAR. The last liquidity squeeze produced a Feb high and six month consolidation. Is that our scenario this year? Wouldn't a six month pause after a February high confuse the masses? On the other hand, wouldn't a February high also confuse the masses? 2012 might be just what the market is not expecting in the timing department. Either way our strategy will adjust. A Feb low at the Chinesee new year will have us look for another rally as we saw in 2009 and 2010. A February high will have us looking for a major consolidation.
From a price standpoint the turn point is right where the upper gold channel line and the lower blue dotted momentum channel line meet. IF we close below this area -- odds will favor a major low in February. If price can hold this area near 1600, then the potential for a February high will still remain a potential for this year. The 1628-1649 area will be where the long term channel lines meet. If there's a test to the downside, that's the most likely spot to watch.
From a price standpoint the turn point is right where the upper gold channel line and the lower blue dotted momentum channel line meet. IF we close below this area -- odds will favor a major low in February. If price can hold this area near 1600, then the potential for a February high will still remain a potential for this year. The 1628-1649 area will be where the long term channel lines meet. If there's a test to the downside, that's the most likely spot to watch.
The Last week
Gold high for the week 1757 --- low 1701 last 1710 spot gold.......
Euro Summit this weekend........
S&P warns of Euro nation downgrades.....
USA FED Meeting Dec 13th--
QE3 anyone ?????....
Before anything to understand how the gold will move this week
It is important to see the gold movement the last Friday
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
