December 30
First support for Gold on Friday is the 1525-1533 area and resistance is 1555-1566.....
FOMC minutes out on 1/3/12.....
Elliott: irregular flat correction down 1529.45
It should try higher up to 1553.71 - 1564.07. Entry point 1543.35 or 1534.26.
After this rise, a correction is expected.
Technical points
Key point 1,536.8800
Entry point 1,544.6900
Elliott 1,641.8800
Closing 1,545.9000
Projection 1,510.2500
Trendline 1,564.4200
Trendline 1,529.9300
Supports / Resistances
Res 2 1,582.2500
Ex-High 1,561.5300
Res 1 1,564.0700
Pivot 1,543.3500
Sup 1 1,525.1700
Ex-Low 1,522.6200
Sup 2 1,504.4500
December 29
December 28
December 27
December 26
Gold markets were very quiet on Friday as the volume dried up. The result was a very flat session that sold off just slightly. The recent shooting star on Wednesday suggests that the next move might be down, but we like the overall uptrend of gold over the last 10 years as a barometer of which way to trade. The $1,500 – $1,600 area is one massive support zone, so we are not selling – rather looking for supportive candles to buy from in the next few sessions.
The Gold Price was little changed in London on Friday, ending the short pre-Christmas session 0.6% higher from last week's finish after setting an AM Gold Fix of $1607.50 per ounce.
Silver Prices also held flat, moving in a tight range below $29.50 per ounce and recording a London Fix almost 1.9% down for the week.
Global stock markets ticked higher overall in what equity dealers also called "very quiet" trade, and crude oil prices extended their strongest week since October.
Thursday's series of attacks in the Iraqi capital Baghdad, which killed perhaps 200 people, were followed today by the murder of 40 people by two suicide car bombers in Damascus, Syria - blamed by the government on al-Qaeda.
"Our Hong Kong office observes that the Gold Price has gone up during the period between Christmas and New Year in eight of the last nine years (2004 being the exception)," said Mitsui's London note today, "[rising] by just over 2% on average.
"If this trend continues, gold would stand around $1,650 by the years end."
"[But] the 200-day moving average, currently at $1624, continues to provide strong resistance," says Russell Browne at Scotia Mocatta in New York.
"We still stress the vulnerability of precious metals to a tightening of Eurozone money market liquidity," says Standard Bank's London team, "which might result from the region’s sovereign debt problems."
European Central Bank member Lorenzo Bin Smaghi - who leaves the ECB this month to avoid "over representation" of Italy after Mario Draghi became president in November - says in a Financial Times interview today that he sees "no reason" not to use quantitative easing "if the economic outlook deteriorated and deflation became a risk."
Spanish and Italian government bonds ticked lower in price on Friday, nudging the interest rate on 10-year debt above 5.4% and 7.0% respectively.
The ECB should "use as much constructive ambiguity as possible" Bin Smaghi says, adding that the ECB "has a duty of action" to help struggling governments where the issue is liquidity, not solvency.
Meantime in India - the world's No.1 physical gold consumer - "A sharp drop in the Gold Price is required to boost the demand," MoneyControl today quoted a Chennai-based wholesaler, as the Indian Rupee Gold Price continued to hold near historic highs thanks to the currency's record low exchange rate.
"Jewellery demand is very weak...Gold Investment demand is also weak," the Reuters news agency quotes a spokesperson in Ahmedabad for Zaveri and Co, one of India's largest jewelry retail chains, who attributes low sales to the current period of Kharmas observed by some Hindu calendars, when there are no "auspicious" festivals or events.
Across in Tehran, however, "Iranians are rushing to Buy Gold and Dollars," reports Bloomberg, "sending the national currency plunging."
The Rial has lost some 15% vs. the Dollar this month, and bureau de change are charging 15,300 Rials per Dollar, says Bloomberg - almost 39% above Tehran's official rate.
"State television this week showed lines of people camped out overnight in front of state banks, with sleeping bags and blankets, saying they were waiting to buy Gold Coins," the newswire goes on.
Faced with new US and EU sanctions - plus inflation running near 20% per year - the Central Bank of Iran suspended deliveries of Gold Coins on Dec. 20, imposing what it calls a "just distribution" system by delaying settlement of new purchases by four months.
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
First support for Gold on Friday is the 1525-1533 area and resistance is 1555-1566.....
FOMC minutes out on 1/3/12.....
Elliott: irregular flat correction down 1529.45
It should try higher up to 1553.71 - 1564.07. Entry point 1543.35 or 1534.26.
After this rise, a correction is expected.
Technical points
Key point 1,536.8800
Entry point 1,544.6900
Elliott 1,641.8800
Closing 1,545.9000
Projection 1,510.2500
Trendline 1,564.4200
Trendline 1,529.9300
Supports / Resistances
Res 2 1,582.2500
Ex-High 1,561.5300
Res 1 1,564.0700
Pivot 1,543.3500
Sup 1 1,525.1700
Ex-Low 1,522.6200
Sup 2 1,504.4500
The year of 2011 has come to an end at least for the trading season. Greece and Eurozone and the PIGS are still on Life-Support, what will happen in 2012? Some say it is the end of the world, perhaps it will be a revamp of the entire financial Era.
But anyways, lets take a look at gold for the last few days.
Read on to perhaps Profit! :) Gold has left the channel which means the sentiment for now is genuinely bearish, the fundamentals of a financially wrecked world is still great for gold, but the sell off for gold seems to be a little severe.
Gold has now plunged past the strong resistance channel and now is going to most likely hit the bottom. Once it does hit that area, the chance for an upside move is going to be quite strong at least temporarily.
December 29
First support for Gold on Thursday is the 1520-1530 area and 1542-1544.....
Elliott: irregular flat correction down 1541.33
One more dip to 1553.38 - 1540.12 is likely followed by a grind higher to 1575.14 - 1583.65. After which it can resume its downtrend.
Warning: Imminent end of bearish move.
GOLD Traded in a $1,549 to $1,593 range overnight and has opened up this morning at $1,556. Weakness in the equity markets brought on by renewed concerns over Europe and a surging USD has seen the gold price fall almost 3% to sit just above pivotal support. A break of critical support at $1,530 will see a rapid and sustained fall that has the potential to mark the beginning of the end for the bull run in gold. Silver has now fallen more than 45% from its year's high in April as a resurgent USD has impacted on precious metals prices. We expect that gold will hold support at $1,530 and stay range bound between $1,530 and resistance at $1,640. Only a clean break of these levels will give us a clear indication of what lies ahead. We are now neutral in our outlook until a clear pattern emerges. Given low liquidity and volatile conditions we will remain on the sidelines. Look for support at. $1530 and resistance at $1,580 to hold.
Compass Direction
- Short-Term: NEUTRAL
- Medium-Term: NEUTRAL
December 28
First support for Gold on Wednesday is the 1573-1583 area in spot gold...........First resistance is 1606-1612..........
Gold is got back as high as the 34 week blue moving average last week but then fell victim to a sell off back to 1600. So far this week, gold has now pulled back to 1590. With short term cycles due to bottom on Tuesday, any new lows after Wednesday would have to favor lower prices. UNLESS gold can get back above 1618 on a closing basis the potential to trade lower can't be eliminated. A new low on Wednesday would begin to favor the downside. With low trading volumes and lots of traders on holiday, its a perfect time for the shorts to try and lower price. Remain cautious.
Gold prices declined after dollar dropped and a governmental report showed an improvement in consumer confidence in December, while trading volumes are becoming thinner over the week before the New Year’s holiday, noting markets are closed today including UK and Australia, yet data out today showed that the US economy improved recently.
Keeping in mind, sentiments will start to shape as investors remain cautious ahead of the New Year’s holiday but traders will be mostly concerned about the latest development from the 17-bloc euro area.
Accordingly, we should expect more fluctuations for gold, but if current pessimism persist, we expect gold prices to extend the rallies, however, the level of uncertainty is very high, so investors are ought to remain cautious.
Gold futures declined in thin year-end trade conditions on Tuesday, falling below the key USD1,600-an-ounce level as most traders already closed books for the year and moved to the sidelines, waiting for a fresh start in January.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery traded at USD1,597.75 a troy ounce during early European morning trade, dropping 0.68%.
It earlier fell by as much as 0.96% to trade at USD1,592.95 a troy ounce, the lowest since December 19.
Gold futures were likely to find short-term support at USD1,585.65 a troy ounce, the low of December 19 and resistance at USD1,615.55, the high of December 23.
Trading volumes were thin as financial markets in Australia, Hong Kong and New Zealand remained closed for the holidays, while investors were reluctant to open new positions before the new year amid lingering concerns over the euro zone’s debt crisis.
Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s has yet to announce if it will cut ratings on any of the 15 countries it has on credit watch negative. Two independent European government sources said Friday that S&P was not expected to release its verdict on euro zone debt ratings until January.
Meanwhile, investors were eyeing Italian three and ten-year bond auctions this week. The yield on Italy’s ten-year bonds topped the critical 7% threshold on Friday, adding to concerns over the country’s handling of its financial troubles.
For much of 2011, investors’ typical reaction to bad news from Europe was to buy gold, as it boosts the safe haven appeal of the precious metal, but that relationship has unraveled recently.
Gold has been pressured in recent months, with its safe haven appeal waning as investors prefer the U.S. dollar as their safe haven of choice amid Europe’s deepening sovereign debt crisis.
Year-end selling by hedge funds and tight liquidity in European interbank money markets have also contributed to recent price falls.
Prices have tumbled nearly 15% since hitting a record high of USD1920 in early September. Despite the slump, prices are still 13% higher on the year, on track for its 11th consecutive annual gain.
First support for Gold on Tuesday is the 1588-1592
area in spot gold...
First resistance is 1616-1622...
Has Christmas dried up your wallets, lets get back behind the trading desk and make some cash.
How is the situation for gold so far? Before the holiday peace, gold is seen to be on a downtrend, will it continue? Probably it will. Expect light trading until early next year, traders will most probably trade lightly or cash out some profits before the year ends so expect gold to fall slightly more.
The potential to short gold is perhaps higher then for gold to be bought. Only attempt to long gold if it crosses into the buy zone.
Happy Christmas, the real intensity of trading will happen in early January, Enjoy this Lull while it last!
Gold Price Adds 0.6% Ahead of
"Christmas Week Rally" as ECB Member Vows
"Duty of Action", Hints at Quantitative Easing
Gold markets were very quiet on Friday as the volume dried up. The result was a very flat session that sold off just slightly. The recent shooting star on Wednesday suggests that the next move might be down, but we like the overall uptrend of gold over the last 10 years as a barometer of which way to trade. The $1,500 – $1,600 area is one massive support zone, so we are not selling – rather looking for supportive candles to buy from in the next few sessions.
The Gold Price was little changed in London on Friday, ending the short pre-Christmas session 0.6% higher from last week's finish after setting an AM Gold Fix of $1607.50 per ounce.
Silver Prices also held flat, moving in a tight range below $29.50 per ounce and recording a London Fix almost 1.9% down for the week.
Global stock markets ticked higher overall in what equity dealers also called "very quiet" trade, and crude oil prices extended their strongest week since October.
Thursday's series of attacks in the Iraqi capital Baghdad, which killed perhaps 200 people, were followed today by the murder of 40 people by two suicide car bombers in Damascus, Syria - blamed by the government on al-Qaeda.
"Our Hong Kong office observes that the Gold Price has gone up during the period between Christmas and New Year in eight of the last nine years (2004 being the exception)," said Mitsui's London note today, "[rising] by just over 2% on average.
"If this trend continues, gold would stand around $1,650 by the years end."
"[But] the 200-day moving average, currently at $1624, continues to provide strong resistance," says Russell Browne at Scotia Mocatta in New York.
"We still stress the vulnerability of precious metals to a tightening of Eurozone money market liquidity," says Standard Bank's London team, "which might result from the region’s sovereign debt problems."
European Central Bank member Lorenzo Bin Smaghi - who leaves the ECB this month to avoid "over representation" of Italy after Mario Draghi became president in November - says in a Financial Times interview today that he sees "no reason" not to use quantitative easing "if the economic outlook deteriorated and deflation became a risk."
Spanish and Italian government bonds ticked lower in price on Friday, nudging the interest rate on 10-year debt above 5.4% and 7.0% respectively.
The ECB should "use as much constructive ambiguity as possible" Bin Smaghi says, adding that the ECB "has a duty of action" to help struggling governments where the issue is liquidity, not solvency.
Meantime in India - the world's No.1 physical gold consumer - "A sharp drop in the Gold Price is required to boost the demand," MoneyControl today quoted a Chennai-based wholesaler, as the Indian Rupee Gold Price continued to hold near historic highs thanks to the currency's record low exchange rate.
"Jewellery demand is very weak...Gold Investment demand is also weak," the Reuters news agency quotes a spokesperson in Ahmedabad for Zaveri and Co, one of India's largest jewelry retail chains, who attributes low sales to the current period of Kharmas observed by some Hindu calendars, when there are no "auspicious" festivals or events.
Across in Tehran, however, "Iranians are rushing to Buy Gold and Dollars," reports Bloomberg, "sending the national currency plunging."
The Rial has lost some 15% vs. the Dollar this month, and bureau de change are charging 15,300 Rials per Dollar, says Bloomberg - almost 39% above Tehran's official rate.
"State television this week showed lines of people camped out overnight in front of state banks, with sleeping bags and blankets, saying they were waiting to buy Gold Coins," the newswire goes on.
Faced with new US and EU sanctions - plus inflation running near 20% per year - the Central Bank of Iran suspended deliveries of Gold Coins on Dec. 20, imposing what it calls a "just distribution" system by delaying settlement of new purchases by four months.
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
