Feb 03
UPDATE
Gold first resistance for Friday is the 1761-1771 area.
1767 is the December high so the shorts will be trying to hold that area.
support is the 1739-1749 area.
on a weekly basis 1699-1705 is the 38% minor retrace.
Odds favor choppy action in a trade range until the jobs report
UPDATE
The Trend remains up, but gold is at weekly resistance 1755-1775. Gold usually stays within a range before the NFP reports on Friday morning. Usually we see an Asian peak, and then a lower London for the first 2 to 3 ½ hours of the session. Of course, this is just a guide of the favored course when nothing else happens during the night. In any event, the best description is gold is usually cautious before the numbers. The usual script is a sideways to lower chop up until a few hours before the report. If there is a spike down, it usually completes between 10 am -11 am New York time (EST). Friday’s used to be strong affairs and if this is a new bull run, the upside has the favor. (there's commentary below this chart)
The Jobs report Friday morning will give the ‘control boys’ an opportunity to spike it and shake off the weak hands or those with tight stops. That grey line with support written under it crosses at the 1735-1745 area. Thus any move below the 1729 area would probably have a lot of traders looking for the exit. And when everyone decides to take profit from this 250 dollar run, it should allow for pullback to at least the 1699-1718 area as a minimum. If you’re a trader and you have good profits, you might want to consider bringing your stops up and getting ready. It’s a fine line as to when to get out because the market has been SO STRONG that any exit for short term traders has to have a re-entry point. In summary, the trend is up, price is at 1755 resistance, and cycles are due to peak. As long as price is touching the panic line (from the earlier chart) each day on the bar chart, we have to favor higher and stay with the uptrend. Watch 1755-1767 on the upside Friday, and 1736-1742 on the downside.
Gold first resistance for Friday is the 1761-1771 area.
1767 is the December high so the shorts will be trying to hold that area.
support is the 1739-1749 area.
on a weekly basis 1699-1705 is the 38% minor retrace.
Odds favor choppy action in a trade range until the jobs report
Friday morning 8:30 AM New York EST.
Scenario for today
Elliott: support in an extended wave up 1749.06
Currently uptrend should end around 1767.02 - 1766.56 area.
A correction down to below 1746.60 is expected.
A rise above 1773.85 will abort the expected correction.
Warning: End of trend - Imminent end of bullish move
Supports / Resistances
Res 2 1,773.8500
Ex-High 1,761.1700
Res 1 1,766.5600
Pivot 1,753.8800
Sup 1 1,746.6000
Ex-Low 1,741.2000
Sup 2 1,733.9200
Scenario for today
Elliott: support in an extended wave up 1749.06
Currently uptrend should end around 1767.02 - 1766.56 area.
A correction down to below 1746.60 is expected.
A rise above 1773.85 will abort the expected correction.
Warning: End of trend - Imminent end of bullish move
Supports / Resistances
Res 2 1,773.8500
Ex-High 1,761.1700
Res 1 1,766.5600
Pivot 1,753.8800
Sup 1 1,746.6000
Ex-Low 1,741.2000
Sup 2 1,733.9200
Price might remain sideways until Thursday morning when the Job data comes out at 8:30 am In New York. Everything in equity land has been spun positive recently, that if the data is spun in the morning, gold could move higher even in the context of how overbought price is. If you nimble, you can try exiting in this 1750 area and re-entering on a move above 1775 but be careful. We might stay in this wedge until the report. Once it moves, I suspect it will be a long range day. Something should give in the next 24 hours. Everything looks like a peak here, but Until price breaks -- we have to favor higher. WATCH 1755 ---- AND 1767. If I exit early.
Feb 02
Mid Week Wednesday gave us the weekly high. There's usually a pullback into Thursday and US Jobs and Payroll reports. Lately, market seems to rally eary in Asia, and then start a sideways to lower grind into London. Bottoms usually occur between 2 to 4 hours into the London session and begin to move back up in a choppy fashion into the reports. Over the last 6 months, they have become less and less a factor. Nevertheless, odds favor a choppy, pullback bias into Thursday. 1725-1733 is the current FIRST Support. But this market can still trade down to 1699-1708 on a WEEKLY test of support. A move to that area would be a spot to consider entering or adding a long position for a trade. Stops at 1688 or somewhere near there. target back up towards 1750.
One thing to watch out for. The market has been very strong and it can keep moving higher here as the trend is up. I may decide to exit near 1750-1755. It just missed 1755 today. I WILL MOST LIKELY POST NEW STOPS between 11am and Midnight if the market warrants it.
If you took profits at 1745-1755, Thursday has the best bet to have a pullback this week after a mid-week wednesday peak. The best time for it to start would be near the latter portion of the Asian trade and into London. For the Nimble, if your looking to sell before the, 1750-1755 spot is still the place to look at first with a tight stop at 1761-1762. With this type of strength however, it's not recommended, or be careful. We are better off trying to catch a pullback into the Jobs data on Thursday morning, or NFP on Friday. But, If there's a pullback to happen this week, it should begin near the London open and into the jobs reports -- target 1729-1735 as potential lows. If we get a weekly pullback to 1699-1708 area.
Consider 1/2 profits at 1750-1755 if you have more than one contract and breakeven on remainder if your long.
1767 is the DECEMBER high, the boyz will br trying to stop it from trading above there. So its a pivot point a few bucks above and below. If they clear 1775---1804 and the November high would be next target to pursue and it would most likely happen pretty quick.
MARKET CONDITION -TREND UP BUT AT RESISTANCE 1755 - 1767 area -- pullbacks and choppy, sideways trading is usually what to expect into a job's report
Feb 01
Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could effect the price of gold.
The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements—including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.
The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements—including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.
These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.
13:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 190K 325K
The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold is trading at 1735.85 after pushing through 1750.00 in earlier trading. It seems the jittery nerves and worries of investors have found that gold is a safe bet at the moment. All of this has been brought on by a weekend of promises from Greek and EU leaders along with the negotiators from the IIF all making statements that a deal had been reached. Portugal’s borrowing rate soared to record levels today, compounding the problems in Europe.
Gold will probably continue to rise over the next week while investors try to figure out just what is happening. Gold will probably bounce between support and resistance over the next few days. Futures were likely to find support at USD1,714.45 Friday’s low and resistance at USD1,760.35, the high from December 8
The US had lackluster consumer confidence report and a showing another drop in housing prices by 1.3%
Now how will gold perform? Lets take an outlook.
Gold is still in a strong momentum up, expect a rise to challenge the 1760 position, do note that gold has risen 15% in just one month, the rise is legitimate due to the Fed’s admission to consideration for long term low interest rates and money printing, but if gold cannot break the 1760 level, expect a drop down to the 1700 level easily.
Jan 31
Scenario for today
Elliott: support in an extended wave up 1721.45
If market stays below 1736.99 a fall to 1717.42 is expected.
If market breaks the point 1741.21 it could reach the sky.
If market stays below 1736.99 a fall to 1717.42 is expected.
If market breaks the point 1741.21 it could reach the sky.
Supports / Resistances
Res 2 1,752.5700
Ex-High 1,740.1200
Res 1 1,741.2100
Pivot 1,728.7700
Sup 1 1,717.4200
Ex-Low 1,716.3300
Sup 2 1,704.9800
Gold is trading at 1735.20. In a surprising day of trading, as the USD picked up momentum as investors moved to the safety of the greenback the euro collapsed against all its trading partners. Gold seemed to follow suit in early trading, but has maintained most of the remaining in a tight range. It seems the jittery nerves and worries of investors have found that gold is a safe bet at the moment. All of this has been brought on by a weekend of promises from Greek and EU leaders along with the negotiators from the IIF all making statements that a deal had been reached. By mid day Monday, there was no deal on the table and the EU Summit convened with out a deal.
Portugal’s borrowing rate soared to record levels today, compounding the worries in Europe.
Portugal’s borrowing rate soared to record levels today, compounding the worries in Europe.
Gold will probably continue to rise over the next week while investors try to figure out just what is happening. Gold will probably bounce between support and resistance over the next few days. Futures were likely to find support at USD1,714.45 and resistance at USD1,760.35, the high from December 8.
Economic Events: (GMT)
Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could effect the price of gold.
The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements—including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.
These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.
00:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -32 -33
Gfk Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A reading above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
07:00 CHF Consumption Indicator 0.81
The UBS Consumption Indicator is a leading indicator of private consumption trends. This indicator is a combined reading of five indicators, including consumer confidence, consumer spending, tourism, new car sales, and retail activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF. Due to the current sitaution of the Swissie this report will be important this week.
07:00 EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) 0.8% -1.0%
German Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles and gas stations. It is the primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
07:45 EUR French Consumer Spending (MoM) 0.3% -0.1%
07:45 EUR French PPI (MoM) 0.1% 0.4%
French Consumer Spending measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods expenditures by consumers. Consumer spending accounts for the majority of economic activity.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate 6.8% 6.8%
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change -7K -22K
The German unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the reported month.
German Unemployment Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.
09:00 EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 8.7% 8.6%
The Italian unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.This data tends to have a muted impact since there are several earlier indicators related to the euro zone labor market.
09:00 EUR Italian PPI (MoM) 0.0% 0.1%
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Tenta EUR Spanish Business Confidence -21 -20
Business Confidence rates the current level of business conditions. It helps to analyze the economic situation in the short term. A rising trend indicates an increase in business investment which may lead to higher levels of output.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) 0.3% -0.6%
09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals 53K 53K
09:30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals 1.2B 1.0B
M4 Money Supply measures the change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks. An increasing supply of money leads to additional spending, which in turn leads to inflation.
Mortgage Approvals measures the number of new mortgages approved for home purchases during the previous month by the Bank of England. The data tends to have a limited impact because about 60% of all mortgages are covered by the BBA Mortgage Approvals data released a few days earlier.
Net lending to individuals measures the change in the total value of new credit extended to consumers. It is closely correlated with consumer spending and confidence.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
10:00 EUR Unemployment Rate 10.4% 10.3%
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. The data tends to have a muted impact as there are several earlier indicators related to labor conditions in the euro zone.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.
13:30 USD Employment Cost Index (QoQ) 0.4% 0.3%
The Employment Cost Index measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for civilian labor.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
14:45 USD Chicago PMI 63.0 62.5
15:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence 68.2 64.5
Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Jan 30
Gold markets have been on a roll lately, and Friday was no exception. The market finds itself being bid up in response to a weaker Dollar, and as the Fed has decided that the low interest rates should continue until at least the end of 2014, it looks as if the Dollar could very well enter a new phase of weakness now.
This is always good for the gold market, and as a result you see sustained buying. The recent breaking above the downtrend line is also a strong indication, and as a result – we are buying pullbacks in this market as it looks likely to continue much, much higher at this point. Selling isn’t even a thought at the moment. $1,700 should be the first line of support from which we could see renewed buying.
The USD has be consistently falling since the Fed Statement on interest two days ago. Gold has surged as the dollar weakened. Investors already leary about the European Debt Crisis and the on going never ending saga in Greece, pulled the plug and headed for the safety of gold. Gold soared continously since the announcement.
Dipping as profts were being taken. Gold is up close to 85.00 per ounce since Wednesday. Gold futures are likely to test support at USD1,649.25 a troy ounce, Wednesday’s low, and resistance at USD1,734.05, an earlier Friday high.
Dipping as profts were being taken. Gold is up close to 85.00 per ounce since Wednesday. Gold futures are likely to test support at USD1,649.25 a troy ounce, Wednesday’s low, and resistance at USD1,734.05, an earlier Friday high.
Economic news in the US this week has been iffy, with unemployment claims increasing unexpectedly and housing starts plummetting well below forecast. Even though the Fed statement earlier this week supported slow growth and a turn around in the US, recent reports have investors worried, as the recovery seems lopsided. The Durable Goods report was above forecast which is good for manufacturing. But the most recent economic report was the U.S. gross domestic product which was lackluster, and cemented expectations that the dollar will remain weak, which was bullish for gold.
Gold should continue to rise even if there is an agreement reached this weekend in Athens, as Portugal is now making the news and will need to be rescued shortly, possibly before the deal with Athens is concluded.
Economic Events: (GMT)
13:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM)
13:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM)
The Core Personal Consumption spending (PCE) Price Index measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption, excluding food and energy. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item. It measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
Personal Spending measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all spending by consumers. Consumer spending accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. However, this report tends to have a mild impact, as government data on retail sales is released about two weeks earlier.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards.
