Feb 10, 2012
Scenario for today
It looks more likely that it would rise to 1745.73 - 1762.32 from 1727.62 or 1719.32.
After which a downside move is expected.
Supports / Resistances
Res 2 1,762.3200
Ex-High 1,752.5000
Res 1 1,745.7300
Pivot 1,735.9100
Sup 1 1,719.3200
Ex-Low 1,726.1000
Sup 2 1,709.5100
13:30 USD Trade Balance -48.4B -47.8B
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
14:55 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 74.3 75.0
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
17:30 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
19:00 USD Federal Budget Balance -65.2B -86.0B
The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government’s income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Feb 09, 2012
Scenario for today
It looks more likely that it would rise to 1748.46 - 1763.78 from 1729.07 or 1721.41.
After which a downside move is expected.
Supports / Resistances
Res 2 1,763.7800
Ex-High 1,752.0500
Res 1 1,748.4600
Pivot 1,736.7300
Sup 1 1,721.4100
Ex-Low 1,725.0000
Sup 2 1,709.6800
09:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) 0.2% -0.6%
Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
09:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.3% -0.2%
Manufacturing Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers. Manufacturing accounts for approximately 80% of overall Industrial Production.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
09:30 GBP Trade Balance -8.4B -8.6B
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
12:00 GBP Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%
Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.
12:45 EUR Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
The six members of the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board and the 16 governors of the euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the EUR.
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 388K 367K
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3525K 3437K
Initial and Continuing Jobless claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time or renewed during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
Feb 08, 2012
Scenario for today
It looks more likely that it would rise to 1745.73 - 1762.32 from 1727.62 or 1719.32.
After which a downside move is expected.
Supports / Resistances
Res 2 1,762.3200
Ex-High 1,752.5000
Res 1 1,745.7300
Pivot 1,735.9100
Sup 1 1,719.3200
Ex-Low 1,726.1000
Sup 2 1,709.5100
Gold rose $17.60, or 1%, to $1,748.90 an ounce on the Comex division of New York Mercantile Exchange. The news that Greek officials had reached the austerity deal on which new loan funds are predicated buoyed the euro and as European central banks decided to continue on a loose monetary-policy path.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep its key lending rate unchanged for another month, in line with what most analysts have been expecting. Politicians in Spain, France and Italy were hopeful that the ECB would cut rates to offset rising debt burdens and help save them from further ratings downgrades. Greece, Portugal and Ireland, the three countries already in receipt of bailout funds from Brussels, were also keen to see lower rates that would cut their borrowing costs and, in the case of Lisbon and Dublin, prevent the need for further bailouts
The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep its key lending rate unchanged for another month, in line with what most analysts have been expecting. Politicians in Spain, France and Italy were hopeful that the ECB would cut rates to offset rising debt burdens and help save them from further ratings downgrades. Greece, Portugal and Ireland, the three countries already in receipt of bailout funds from Brussels, were also keen to see lower rates that would cut their borrowing costs and, in the case of Lisbon and Dublin, prevent the need for further bailouts
Although todays market movement was more about the dollar, gold moved in contrast to the fluctuations in the USD. Today’s reports showed that initial jobless claimed dropped lower then forecast giving the USD some strength, but was shortly thereafter followed by positive news on Greece, voiding the upward motion of the greenback.
Economic Events: (GMT)13:30 USD Trade Balance -48.4B -47.8B
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
14:55 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 74.3 75.0
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
17:30 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
19:00 USD Federal Budget Balance -65.2B -86.0B
The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government’s income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Feb 09, 2012
GOLD our move to a neutral stance on gold in the short term has been validated over the past week as the strong uptrend has clearly stalled. The range overnight was $1,724 to $1,751. Gold looks likely to maintain this range for the short term as investors seek further developments and clarification of the situation in Europe. Gold opens the morning at $1,732. Given our neutral short term bias we expect more of the same with gold expected to maintain recent ranges for now. It will only take some form of even minor shock, most likely emanating from Europe or the Middle East to propel the price above strong resistance at $1,750. For today, we are unlikely to initiate any trades given the high event risk associated with announcements that may come from any one of the parade of cast members involved in the Greek drama. We clean break of $1,755 will have us buy while a test of support at $1,720 will see us enter into a short term long position.
Scenario for today
It looks more likely that it would rise to 1748.46 - 1763.78 from 1729.07 or 1721.41.
After which a downside move is expected.
Supports / Resistances
Res 2 1,763.7800
Ex-High 1,752.0500
Res 1 1,748.4600
Pivot 1,736.7300
Sup 1 1,721.4100
Ex-Low 1,725.0000
Sup 2 1,709.6800
News of a possible Greek settlement, with the ECB agreeing to accept a haircut on its holding of Greek bonds, there now seems to be deal close at foot. The pair are likely to find support at USD1,712.65 and short-term resistance at USD1,765.85. Thursday, will be about Greece and the USD employment data. Watch gold closely.
Economic Events: (GMT)09:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) 0.2% -0.6%
Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
09:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.3% -0.2%
Manufacturing Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers. Manufacturing accounts for approximately 80% of overall Industrial Production.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
09:30 GBP Trade Balance -8.4B -8.6B
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
12:00 GBP Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%
Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.
12:45 EUR Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
The six members of the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board and the 16 governors of the euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the EUR.
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 388K 367K
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3525K 3437K
Initial and Continuing Jobless claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time or renewed during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
Feb 08, 2012
The gold markets rose on Tuesday as traders got wind of a supposed Greek debt deal in the works. At the end of the day however, nothing had been announced – except that the Greek lawmakers had postponed a meeting to discuss the workout. The gold markets rose as the Dollar sold off, and managed to pop above the $1,750 level at one point during the session.
The central banks are also buyers of gold, and this has put a serious bid in the market. Because of this, the dips have all proved to be buying opportunities over the last several years, and the fall we saw on Monday was yet another example. However, the $1,750 level just above is resistance, and we need to see the market close above it on the daily chart to think that we are “free” of the constraints of this present consolidation area.
The $1,750 level has seen many attacks on it, and the most recent visit was back in early December when the market failed and plunged to the post-holiday lows in January. Because of the action back then, this area should continue to offer a fight, but with the last eleven years being so bullish, it is hard to go against the bulls in this market. Because of this, we are “buy only” in this market.
The world is currently watching several central banks cutting rates, printing money, and being dovish in general. With this in mind, the value of gold should rise as the fiat currencies are weakened in value simultaneously. The trend should continue for the long-term, and we are looking for a $1,900 print by the summer time this year.
The candle does look very strong from the Tuesday session, and does suggest that there will be more buying pressure, but until that level gets closed above, it is hard to buy at the moment. Pullbacks would also be welcome – that exact advice worked on Tuesday. The $1,700 level looks to be supportive going forward, and each time we fall at this point in time, we are willing to go long on shorter time frames in small positions to build up a large one over time.
Now gold is in the sell zone with respect to the previous uptrend, now will it be better to go short or long? It will depend on how the price of gold will move for the next few days, if it keeps shy from breaking above the 1760 level, perhaps shorting gold down back to the bottom purple line could be good.
Feb 07, 2012
What Next?
April Gold extended its drop from the Friday highs. This decline is increasing the bearish technical pattern, and we would expect the pattern favors a continue through down support between 1649-1681 if the cycles remain in effect over the next two weeks.
As long as we remain below 1767, the trend is down. On this daily chart, the 1649-1681 area is the area with best price support on a monthly basis. Swing Traders should keep an eye somewhere in this level, especially if it enters into play when cycles become due to turn up near the 21st of February. This 1649-1681 range is also in line with the 34 week moving averages,so its an important Monthly support area.
The current area to watch on Tuesday is the 1703-1717 area. A price bounce should develop from this area and target 1730-1740. We think its too early to favor the drop we just got is the final low on this pullback. We could get a nice bounce, but we think there is more to play out.
Tuesday favors a 1703-1717 low area, and then a bounce to go check out support. If price gets to 1730-1740 first, we should run into resistance there. FOR THE WEEK, the 1755-1763 area is the place to think about a short if your a bear on the market or a trader who's looking lower.
Trader bulls can consider trying the 1703-1717 area with a 10 dollar stop loss---and the best way to play it is to buy 2 contracts---and sell one if we reach 1738-1740 in April gold. Since the trend is favored lower, it should only be done if your a nimble trader and you know when to take profits and move your stops up as your trading against the trend. SO IF YOUR A QUICK TRADER -- that's the area you want to consider a long for a quick bounce up. IF your looking to short on Tuesday, the safest spot is the 1738-1742 area or the 1755-1759 area.
UPDATE
GOLD Traded in a range of $1,711 to $1,738. We had expected a move lower in gold yesterday and our move to a neutral stance on gold yesterday was well timed as the metal had a rare down day. Within the last few days, we have seen gold prices react negatively to both good news in the form of the US employment data and bad news in the form of the continuing Greek tragedy. When will gold prices behave and act as they have in the past like any good safe haven asset? We believe a number of factors are now playing out which will see gold soon spike towards $2,000 by mid year. For now we maintain our neutral short term stance due to a number of significant risks in the market this week which may have an entirely unpredictable effect on gold. Barring any further bad news out of Europe, look for a tight range in trade today between $1,710 and $1,730. We expect that gold will retest support just below $1,710 today but that this level should hold.
As the saying goes, USD up – Gold down and vice versa
The USD surged on Monday on worries about Greece.
News from Greece was not promising. Greece failed to agree on new austerity measures across political parties yesterday, a requirement for the proposed bailout to avoid default in March. There was some progress on bank recapitalization. There cannot be a new program for Greece unless the conditions of the troika are met,” Merkel said at a joint press conference here with Sarkozy, referring to the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank
A higher dollar is a negative for goldand other dollar-denominated commodities as it makes them more expensive for holders of other currencies.
As investors eyed the USD they lost interest in metals. Gold is still in solid territory. If the Greece crisis worsens or overflows to Portugal or Italian and Spain rates increase, we will see gold move back up the scale.
Economic Events: (GMT)
Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could effect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements—including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.
These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.
15:00 USA Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. The testimony is in two parts; the first is a prepared statement, then the committee conducts a question and answer session. The Q&A portion of the testimony can see heavy market volatility for the duration.
Gold is in a serious Bubble once you see this.
Run up to Golds peak in early 1980. Some newspaper articles to give you an idea of what it might look like to be in a Gold bubble plus some quick clips from Youtube Gold videos. Thanks if your vid was included in advance. Used it because I admire it. - TheBullionBoy. Music Gold by Spandau Ballet - Cheesey I know
Gold Silver Bubble Peak Price 1979 1980 Peter Schiff Max Keiser Jim Rogers Mike Maloney David Morgan Bob Chapman Alex Jones 2010 2011 2012 GATA CFTC Burst Collection Articles Crash JP Buy TheBullionBoy Bullion Boy price manipulation dollar precious metals
Gold Silver Bubble Peak Price 1979 1980 Peter Schiff Max Keiser Jim Rogers Mike Maloney David Morgan Bob Chapman Alex Jones 2010 2011 2012 GATA CFTC Burst Collection Articles Crash JP Buy TheBullionBoy Bullion Boy price manipulation dollar precious metals
Gold had started to fall from its 15%+ rise in January, how severe will the sell off be?
This is quite a clear-cut situation, gold is on a correctional downtrend, how far will it drop? Down towards 1680 is definitely on the cards but prudence for shorting can be done until the purple dotted line. Could it break below 1700? Possible but not that probable. Trade from bound to bound is the safer move for now.
Feb 06, 2012
GOLD fell despite the US losing ground on Friday after the non-farm payrolls data release. After failing to hold above $1,750 we now turn neutral gold in the short time as we expect prices to consolidate to range trade this week. The failure of gold to break higher on Friday despite a number of factors favouring such a move has us approach trading in the metal with caution this week. The move from $1,630 critical support to $1,750 has given investors an opportunity to reduce long positions for now to reevaluate market developments. Gold's trading range on Friday was $1,723 to $1,763. The better than expected employment data may have had the effect of lowering the market's expectations of further quantitative easing which is in turn seeing gold lose some of the gains we saw after the last FOMC statement where expectations of QE3 rose. Support at $1,720 held on Friday but if we see this level breached today we will turn bearish in the short term.
Gold price prediction week feb 6 - 10, 2012
Gold prices slipped following a surprisingly strong report on U.S. jobs for January. The headline figure of 243,000 jobs created was far above even the highest trade estimates and about double the average forecast of about 120,000. The rise in new jobs pushed the unemployment rate to 8.3% from 8.5%. Marc Chandler, head of global currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, said this data has two-fold implications.
Prices fell on Friday and were mixed on the week. The most-active April gold contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $1,740.30 an ounce, up 0.28% on the week.
Gold prices could retreat a bit next week following five weeks of gains, but overall market watchers said any correction by the yellow metal next week should be light and short-lived, as the overall trend for gold remains higher.
Gold prices could retreat a bit next week following five weeks of gains, but overall market watchers said any correction by the yellow metal next week should be light and short-lived, as the overall trend for gold remains higher.
Gold to end next week higher concede that gold could pull back temporarily before moving up. “I would look for prices to pull back to roughly $1,715, maybe a little deeper. Only a close under $1,675 hints at a turn in prices to the downside. After the pullback and a couple days of basing, I expect gold to blast off next week over $1,775,” said Ralph Preston, senior market analyst at Heritage West Financial.
After a heavy week of economic data this week, next week’s offerings are lighter, which should have less impact on precious-metals trade. Consumer sentiment is slated for release on Friday, which will give some insight to how people are feeling about the U.S. economy.
The expected drop from 1762 was spot on and i was looking for 1722-25 to come into play. Though quite frankly was not expecting it to be on Friday all on same day... Anyways the day on Friday printed a huge engulfing bearish candle and initially wanted to build longs off around 1722-25 but now I'm of the view that 1699-1701 for Monday or 1703-05 by Tuesday should now be getting printed b4 we can see a bounce back up now.
As for monday expecting 1718-1740 initial range play, with 1738-42 holds for a short momentum testing 1718-19 out...A break under 1718 puts pressure to the 1700 supp..
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
