Tronlink Wallet Airdrop: GOLD TREND March 05

March 9, 2012
08.00 A.M GMT
UPDATE

Thursday was the beginning of the major cycle windows where long term, medium term, intermediate term, and short term are all in play for the first time in at least 4 years. It’s a big event and if there’s to be a major move this year, the next 30 to 45 days are highly favored.

The ‘control boyz’ are going to take gold whatever way they want---they will use whatever news to make it sound ‘good.’ Let’s be ready. The jobs claim numbers on Thursday we’re in line, and now we get non-farm payroll.

If the deal falls through Friday in Europe, and we get bad job data, we'll have to keep a close watch.

The overall short term trend is still down---we should find out in the next two trade days if Gold will stage a rally. The short term cycle window closes after today’s trade and next week sets the pace.

Short Term (cycles)

The latest thing on the cycle plate is the potential that gold is actually putting in a low this week. If it does, it would be the first BLUE cycle low since the correction began in August. If the cycle is already down, the potential for gold to fall for another two weeks in hard fashion is a strong possibility.

The IDEAL cycle day is complete and the cycle window closes on Friday. Next week’s first new high or low will favor to set the trend for the next two weeks. IF we’re making the low here on a blue cycle, the correction in gold could be complete. But if we break next week, it will be hard. It should be interesting.

06.00 A.M GMT
Gold first resistance on Friday is the 1709-1719 area
and then 1727-1735
First Support is 1675-1683 and then 1655-1667

00.00 A.M GMT

Our opinion is selling gold around 1709.00, and take profit in stages at 1680.00

Stop loss with 4-hour closing above 1717.00 might be appropriate.

Supports / Resistances

Res 2   1,716.3800
Ex-High   1,704.0500
Res 1   1,708.0900
Pivot   1,695.7600
Sup 1   1,687.4700
Ex-Low   1,683.4300
Sup 2   1,675.1300

Now gold is flirting with the black line and is threatening to drop into the sell zone. Limit orders can be placed at prices at the black zone for shorting (selling purposes), now if gold was to plunge into the sell zone convincingly, the price of gold should fall back to around 1680.

In America

U.S. employers announced workforce reductions totaling 51,728 during February, down 3.3% from January levels, according to the latest job-cut report released Thursday by global outplacement firm Challenger.

Jobless claims in the U.S. rose to the highest level in five weeks, climbing by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 362,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. Markets had estimated claims would rise to 355,000 in the week ended March 3. Continuing claims – payments to people already approved for jobless benefits – increased by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 3.42 million in the week ended Feb. 25.

The Fed is considering a new form of “sterilized” quantitative easing that would allow asset purchases despite high oil prices, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal.

In northern America, the Canadian Central Bank held rates today at 1% following the lead of banks around the world.

In Europe

The Bank of England announced their current rate decision which was as expected to hold rates. No new additions to their monetary easing policies announced in February.
The European Central Bank committee held lending rates at the current rate of 1% and made no comments on any additional lending policies.
ECB President Draghi said in his monthly press conference in Frankfurt on Thursday that the central bank’s long-term refinancing operation, has had a positive effect on markets and sentiment in the euro zone but that “all non-standard measures are temporary.” He also said that the three-year LTROs have been an “unquestionable success.”
Prices for Italian government bonds jumped and Spanish bonds also rose Thursday, sending yields lower on expectations Greece will successfully complete its voluntary debt swap with private investors. Italy’s 10-year bond yield fell 0.20
Investors holding around 60% of eligible Greek government bonds have indicated so far they will participate in a massive debt swap, Bloomberg reported Thursday. That puts the country nearer to completion of a major sovereign restructuring.

March 8, 2012
07.00 A.M GMT

Our opinion is selling gold around 1695.00, and take profit in stages at 1657.00

Stop loss with 4-hour closing above 1705.00 might be appropriate.

Long Term=Up (major resistance held the uptrend – Need monthly closes above 1767-1804)
Medium Term=Up (Major Resistance 1767 Monthly Close) CLOSE TO GOING NEUTRAL
Intermediate Term=Down---The North American Winter seasonal correction in play.
Short Term=down – First Resistance at 1692-1712 – MAJOR CYCLE TURN MAR 8th – 12th
Support and Resistance for Thursday
Initial Resistance for 1692-1701 and 2nd tier 1712-1717 3rd Tier
Initial Support 1654-1666 and 2nd tier 1625-1637
Last night’s update listed 1683-1693 as resistance and the high was 1688. Support was listed at 1654-1666 and the low was 1672. (all prices spot)

Recap and outlook

Gold prices followed the Euro higher on Wednesday, which rallied on reports that 58% of Greek bondholders were prepared to accept a voluntary write-down. The Wall Street Journal also reported that the U.S. Federal Reserve was considering buying long-term Treasury bonds in order to maintain low-interest rates, a form of quantitative easing.

April Gold moved higher and closed up the day $12 higher. Price settled above the 200-day moving average at 1677 and the 50 day at 1690. That’s where the majority of time may be spent on Thursday. We think gold might be gearing up for a big move here.

Now that the February low has been broken, and quick bounce back up MUST CLOSE ABOVE 1692 at a minimum to get back inside the Feb range. If we close below 1755 (Fib retracement), then 1625-1637 becomes the last support until the 1550-1580 area.

Traders should consider wanting to be long whenever we are in the February range (Above 1692-1702)

Looking towards the upside, overhead resistance is now the 1692-1702, 1709-1717 area---and the 1727-1736 zone. So there’s a lot of overhead resistance forming.

THE GREEK DECISION IS HOURS AWAY – so gold should be ready to move.

If it’s not called a “default” the bondholders take a haircut with no insurance. If they reject and try to collect the “insurance” --- the market escalation into a liquidity situation will INCREASE and that will scare all markets.

For Thursday

Thursday is the beginning of the major cycle windows where long term, medium term, intermediate term, and short term are all in play for the first time in at least 4 years. It’s a big event and if there’s to be a major move this year, the next 30 to 45 days are highly favored.

The ‘control boyz’ are going to take gold whatever way they want---they will use whatever news to make it sound ‘good.’ Let’s be ready. We have jobs data, Greek decisions and rumblings of War all over the place in the Middle East. We favor a test of first resistance in the 1692-1702 area, then we'll see. If the deal falls through on Thursday, and we get bad job data, look out. The over all trend is still down, lets see if the cycle begin their work.

What Next?

we favored a bounce on our what next paragraph in last the last update to 1683-1688 and the high was 1688.

Due to the Greek thing and the Jobs reports coming, we think Thursday favors higher. But if it fails resistance on this bounce, it will be a SET UP FOR A TURNDOWN next week. Gold needs to hold that mini red dotted trend line or we go to 1637-1650 quickly. THE yellow zone on the chart is the cycle window. It closes on Friday. Since the website is still fully open till next week, Non premium members can still view the signals trade room. There’s some good commentary on stops and other commentary on cycles and trading. Get ready, the cycle’s here. Let’s see if it does a major reversal up at this cycle point. If it doesn’t, a big move will have higher than normal potential.

Gold daily Price Chart with support and resistance

05.00 A.M GMT

GOLD has risen for the first time after three straight days of falls and is now looking to reestablish a consolidative phase. Increased optimism over the Greek debt swap deal and a report by the Wall Street Journal that the Federal Reserves is considering further asset purchases have supported prices. The price action over the past few days indicated to us that a technical fall in the gold price may be forthcoming and we have resisted taking on any new positions. The range overnight was $1,671 to $1,688. Solid support at $1,660 appears to be safe for now and we expect a short term attempt at solid offers building at $1,700. Expect a couple of quiet sessions as investors await the US Non Farm Payrolls data to be released tomorrow night. We are expecting a number that is lower than consensus so on that basis and given the recent strong inverse correlation between the USD index and the gold price we will see weakness after the data release.

Scheduled Economic Events for March 8, 2012 (GMT)
06:30     EUR French Non-Farm Payrolls     -0.1%     -0.2%
French Non-farm Payrolls measures the change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and government.
08:15     CHF     CPI (MoM)     0.2%     -0.4%
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
12:00     GBP     Interest Rate Decision     0.50%     0.50%
Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
12:45 EUR     Interest Rate Decision     1.00% 1.00%
The six members of the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board and the 16 governors of the euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
13:15     CAD     Housing Starts 199K     198K
Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector.
13:30     USD     Initial Jobless Claims      350K      351K
13:30     USD     Continuing Jobless Claims      3385K      3402K
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.
14:00     CAD     Interest Rate Decision 1.00%      1.00%
Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

March 7, 2012

Resistance should be strong near 1683-1688.
There’s Fibonacci support at 1654-1659

and Gann Support at 1665.
A break below those and the 1625-1637 will be in play.

06.00 A.M GMT

Long Term=Up (major resistance held the uptrend – Need monthly closes above 1767-1804)
Medium Term=Up (Major Resistance 1767 Monthly Close) CLOSE TO GOING NEUTRAL
Intermediate Term=Down---The North American Winter seasonal correction underway. The 100 dollar drop last week does allow for a bounce. (We’ve already matched last year’s pullback)
Short Term=down

Prices remained favored on the downside as we came into today and the break was a bit lower than we expected. Mid Week Wednesday is due. A lot of high points are put in on Wednesday’s, but with the downside in play, might we get a low on Wednesday this week and then a bounce? We shall see. While a bounce to 1688-1692 should be in play, the last two days has gold very week, unable to stage hardly any bounce.

What Next?

Today is mid week Wednesday and with the Jobs data arriving at the end of the week, it’s going to be CRITICAL that unemployment numbers are down. If they are not, the stock market will have its excuse for another day like Tuesday.
We arrive at mid-week Wednesday, where a lot of highs for the week occur. Once in a while, they are lows for the week. I don’t have a good read, but a bounce toward 1683-1688 would be a typical pattern. IF we fail that area, we could turn back down and gold could get more pressure.
Wednesday favors a bounce attempt to 1683-1688undefinedbut overall, the trend is down. WE reached the downside target for the week on the chart below, but gold is in danger of more slippage if we don’t hold here. There has not been one bounce since the rout last week that has had any power to it. The trend remains down.

Gold Daily Price chart with channel lines

04.00 A.M GMT

Our expectation that gold will re-establish a direct correlation with the USD, moving in the same direction (higher) as global uncertainties and concerns reach a crescendo in the coming weeks has yet to come to fruition as gold continues to fall with the risk– off market environment. Gold traded in a $1,663 to $1,709 range yesterday with a triggering of stop losses below $1,680 resulting in an over extended move before a recovery to above $1,678 this morning. We maintain our neutral short term stance in gold and will stay out of the markets for now as building topside price resistance gives us cause for concern..

Compass Direction

Short-Term: NEUTRAL
Medium-Term: BULLISH

00.05 A.M GMT
Trade Consideration

Buy 1 contract -- April Micro Gold -- 10 Ounce contract at 1670 or better NOW
CURRENT PRICE ----------1668 spot ----
Note --- IF ITS TRADING above 1670 when you read this --- buy it under 1675
NOTE: RISK IS VERY HIGH

Gold is quite obviously in the sell zone, expect a drop down towards the resistance of 1638-1640, remember that gold has gone from 1560 up to 1800 within 2 months, a 15% increase, this correction is a healthy one, no surprise if a 10% correction occurs.

Economic Events: (GMT)

Scheduled Economic Events for March 7, 2012 (GMT)

13:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment 205K 170K

13:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 0.8% 0.7%

13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 1.2% 1.2%

The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is a good predictor of the government’s non-farm payroll report. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.

Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry. Productivity and labor-related inflation are directly linked-a drop in a worker’s productivity is equivalent to a rise in their wage.

Unit Labor Costs measure the annualized change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 07 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Mar 07 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Mar 07 10.30 UK Auctions new Sep 2017 conventional Gilt

Mar 08 16:00 US Announces auctions of 3Y Notes on Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar 13

& 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08 16:30 Italy Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09 11:00 Belgium OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14

March 6, 2012
11.00 A.M GMT
Trade Consideration

This trade uses the Feb Low as a buy point --- with a tight stop underneath the price lows.

The Feb low is 1688 on Globex and 1703 in New York.

The strategy would be to buy 2 contracts of April Futures MINI 33 OZ – or MICRO 10 ounce Gold contracts at 1685 or better (1683 spot gold). The stop would be 1666 intra day April and (1664) spot gold. The target strategy would be to sell 1 of the contracts at 1703 and place a breakeven stop on the remaining positions and look to exit in the 1736-1744 area spot gold.

4.00 A.M GMT

Gold Update for Tuesday March 6 2012

Long Term=Up (major resistance held the uptrend – Need monthly closes above 1767-1804)
Medium Term=Up (Major Resistance 1767 Monthly Close) CLOSE TO GOING NEUTRAL
Intermediate Term=Down---The North American Winter seasonal correction underway. The 100 dollar drop last week does allow for a bounce. (We’ve already matched last year’s pullback)
Short Term=down – First Resistance at 1738-1755
Support and Resistance for Tuesday
Initial Resistance for 1717-1727 and 2nd tier 1734-1744
Initial Support 1675-1685 and 2nd tier 1637-1655

Last night’s update listed 1722-1729 as resistance and the high was 1717. Support was listed at 1699-1711 and the low was 1694. (all prices spot)

Prices are hanging on the edge of the 1690-1715 area and look like they are going to break. It takes a move above 1722-1725 in gold. Anything less favors the downside has the advantage.

The decision for today's trend should be made at the1695-1700 area. If we can't hold there, look for 1675-1685.

IT TAKES A CLOSE ABOVE 1722-1725 in gold to favor higher.

Trader talk has them looking at the 1715-1725 area is being used to short. The longs are trying to pick up at 1700-1710. Downside targets are 1675-1685 and upside targets are 1727-1736.

Short Term (cycles)

Cycle land is open to a few interpretations. If we’re having a cycle failure, odds favor a move to the 1637-1680 area will develop rather quickly. Gold needs a close above 1725-1730 at a minimum to stabilize the price drop. The cycle window is open and thus a drop can begin at any time this week. The ideal day is the 8th (plus or minus 72 hours). The ideal situation would be for gold to bottom on Monday, and then move up for a few days into Mid Week Wednesday. The wild card was whether the Fed talk and 30 ton gold sale on Monday was a set-up that was enough to set the cycle off early. Either way, we expect a peak and a pullback. It's just a question of whether we move towards the 1740-1750 area first.

THERE’s a major development here we must address. When gold is in a BULL market, the blue dominant circles are the price lows. When we are in a correction, they are the HIGHS. IF WE MAKE A LOW THIS WEEK---and begin a rally next week, the potential that the correction that started last AUGUST will be over. But if the cycle is so weak, that it has already begun, we should expect a HARD LEG DOWN TO the 1637 area and maybe 1600.

IF you want to TRADE IT---look to buy in the 1675-1685 area with a stop below 1666. (add two dollars for April Gold.) I say if you want to trade it, because the risk is high. So we have many potentials here. A short here or at 1712 also has potential. The thing that makes it hard is to understand what last Wednesday’s 100 dollar drop did to the cycle. And at the moment, there’s many scenario’s. RIGHT NOW – IT FAVORS LOWER and could very well break down tonight. Be careful.

Gold Daily Price Chart with short term cycles

What Next?

Price broke below the upper Gann line and the next one is at 1700-1702 and is the one we discussed to watch last night.

Right now we have to favor a drop towards 1675-1680 where price might be a buy at. The thing that keeps me on the sideline is that if the cycle started early, we’re going toward 1637 and not just 1680-1685.

WATCH that rounded BLUE LINE near 1712-1715. As long as we’re below that, then the downside has the advantage. If we break Red Gann line at 1700, then look for that mini red to guide the downtrend and look for 1680-1685 first. Favor lower under the BLUE LINE -- Favor higher and a bounce under way above it. That's you're best GAUGE for Tuesday.

Gold Price Chart with key price points of support and resistance

3.20 A.M GMT

We are looking for a short term intraday rise in gold today above $1,715 so a short term long position is in order. We continue to expect gold to re-establish a direct correlation with the USD, moving in the same direction (higher) as global uncertainties and concerns reach a crescendo over a slowing China and a splintering Europe.

0.20 A.M GMT

Market should hold major support at 1693
before rising towards 1724

Supports / Resistances

Res 2   1,728.5500
Ex-High   1,716.8000
Res 1   1,717.4700
Pivot   1,705.7200
Sup 1   1,694.6500
Ex-Low   1,693.9700
Sup 2   1,682.9000

Gold dropped to 1704.25 just ahead of the 100 day MA which sits at 1694 and should hold some technical support., extending a selloff started in the last week and continued in electronic trading over the weekend, following a weekly loss of 3.7%, as negative data from Europe, China and the U.S. weighed in.
The Institute of Supply Management said its non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 57.3 in February from a reading of 56.8 the previous month. Economists had expected the index to decline to 56.1.

Another report showed that U.S. factory orders fell, but at a slower than forecast rate in January, declining by a seasonally adjusted 1.0%, compared to forecasts for a 1.3% slide.

Economic Events: (GMT)

Tuesday will be a very quiet day on the Economic Data Front. Keep an eye on Australia, where the RBA will be announcing rates.
10:00 EUR GDP (QoQ) -0.3% -0.3%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
15:00 CAD Ivey PMI 62.1 64.1
The Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in Canada. A reading above 50 indicates expansion; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The index is a joint project of the Purchasing Management Association of Canada and the Richard Ivey School of Business. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

March 5, 2012
9.30 A.M GMT

Downside targets are 1675-1685 and

upside targets are 1727-1736.

Long Term=Up (major resistance held the uptrend – Need monthly closes above 1767-1804)
Medium Term=Up (Major Resistance 1767 Monthly Close)
Intermediate Term=Up---The North American Winter seasonal correction is due to begin this week, or is already in play from last week.
Short Term=down – First Resistance at 1738-1755
Support and Resistance for Monday
Initial Resistance for 1722-1729 and 2nd tier 1738-1748
Initial Support 1699-1711 and 2nd tier 1666-1683

What Next?

The two Gann lines are the supports going into Monday Morning. It looks like that lower Gann line near the 1702 area is the spot to watch. With this 1700 area having been the support from which we launched the move to 1790, and with price knocking on the door since the Wednesday drop, this price area won’t take too much more testing before it gives way.
WATCH that rounded BLUE LINE near 1720. As long as we’re below that, then the downside has the advantage. If we break the first Red Gann line, then favor a test near 1700.

Gold 8 Hour Price Chart with Support and resistance lines and trend lines

Gold 8 Hour Price Chart with Support and resistance lines and trend lines

Prices are hanging on the edge of the 1700-1715 area and look ready to rollover. It takes a move above 1722-1725 in gold. Anything less favors the downside has the advantage. The decision for today's trend should be made at the 1701-1709 area. If we can't hold there, look for 1675-1685. If we hold 1700, prices should begin a bounce up to the 1722-1736 area. WATCH 1701-1709 ---as it should set the pace. The downside has the edge and when we weight the evidence, the DOWNSIDE has the advantage.

Trader talk has them looking at the 1715-1725 area is being used to short. The longs are trying to pick up at 1700-1710.

Downside targets are 1675-1685 and

upside targets are 1727-1736.

0.30 A.M GMT

GOLD prices have stabilised in a $1,705 to $1,717 range on Friday after having collapse from above $1,790 to below $1,690 on Bernanke comments that gave no indication of further quantitative easing. The volatility in precious metals compared to other assets classes in response to Fed announcements may be partly explained by the increasing popularity of exchange traded products. Investments in ETPs have risen so much that gold holdings in ETPs have now surpassed the holdings of Italy and France and are now only below the holdings of the US, Germany and the International Monetary Fund. We expect that although price swings and volatility in gold may in fact increase even as liquidity improves as investors move towards ETPs instead of the more costly option of physical holdings in the metal. We expect gold to continue to trade in a $1,705 to $1,720 range this week and will be looking at short term trading opportunities to take advantage of this range

There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery to 1724.

After that move down to the bottom support is highly possible.

Supports / Resistances

Res 2 1,733.0600

Ex-High 1,724.3000

Res 1 1,722.5400

Pivot 1,713.7800

Sup 1 1,703.2700

Ex-Low 1,705.0300

Sup 2 1,694.5100

Its been a volatile trading week ever since the Fed decided not to buy more bonds
or effectively ‘halting’ Quantitative easing.

For now the gold price is still recovering from the Bernanke Shock of the last few days, expect consolidation trading. That being said, the price of gold should dip lower at least one final time before a possible push back up. Remember that the world is still in a huge mess, from Europe to Iran, Bailouts and threats of war just makes the overall picture of gold glitter more.

Economic Events: (GMT)

08:00     GBP       Halifax House Price Index (MoM)                           0.1%                      0.6%
The Halifax House Price Index measures the change in the price of homes and properties financed by Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS), one of the U.K.’s largest mortgage lenders. It is a leading indicator of health in the housing sector.
08:15   CHF       CPI (MoM)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
08:15    CHF        Retail Sales (YoY)
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
09:30     GBP      Services PMI
The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

10:00    EUR        Retail Sales (MoM)
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
15:00    USD       ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (also known as the ISM Services PMI ) rates the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The data is compiled from a survey of approximately 400 purchasing managers in the non-manufacturing sector. On the index, a level above 50 indicates expansion; below indicates contraction.