GOLD TREND April 16 - 20, 2012

 April 20 

 04.00 P.M GMT

   CME NEWS

Gold prices overnight saw a rather narrow trading range perhaps because higher equity price action in Asia was mostly countervailed by weaker equity market action in Europe. Some would-be gold bulls could be discouraged by a lack of fresh economic news today and others might be hesitant to enter gold ahead of the French election outcome this weekend. There is talk that a new French leader is likely to make different demands of the EU leadership and that change in leadership might offer up at least a temporary wrinkle in the handling of Euro zone debt concerns.

Gold should have garnered some support from a higher German Ifo business climate index reading overnight and it might also garner some support from news of a rise in UK March retail sales figures that were released this morning. But, gold prices in the early Friday US trade don't seem to be embracing a positive macro economic view even though the gold trade is seeing marginally supportive early dollar market action and a minimally higher US equity market opening.

While there continues to be talk that the PBOC might be poised to provide some extra liquidity to its economy, there was also some conflict at the IMF meeting with respect to increasing it capital firepower. Apparently the BRIC nations are lobbying for more say or power in the IMF before they commit more capital. In the long run, seeing the IMF increase its capitalization base could be seen as a supportive development to gold and other commodity markets.

Equity markets in Asia were generally higher overnight, with Shanghai stocks reaching a new 1 month high off positive leadership from the financial sector. European markets were weaker to start today, mostly off political wrangling within the IMF and perhaps because of the potential for political leadership changes in France. Early in the US trade today, share prices are up, with the markets shifting their focus toward another round of corporate earnings reports later this morning. The US economic report slate today is mostly empty, with a weekly ECRI report the only scheduled release today. However, there could be a series of reactions off an ongoing IMF meeting and a G20 Finance Ministers/Governors meeting.

Gold – Golng to the Chart
CHART 1 – CYCLES

Today is the ideal day April 20th (plus or minus 72 hours) for a short term low and potential trend turn for gold. Yesterdays 1631 low was one dollar lower than last weeks and within the 72 hour time ‘window’ for a turn. Thus either today or Monday still has potential to move lower but the turn due here has about a 75% reliable factor.

So between yesterday and Monday there’s a strong potential for a low point to be established.  Maximum drawdown however is that lower channel line all the way down under 1600.  That can’t be ruled out.  On the upside, a close above 1665-1670 would favor that the low is in place and a two week uptrend is underway.

  Lets zoom in a bit more on the GOLD

Gold is trying to hold the 1640 area and that is a consideration as a Pivot point for today.  KEY SUPPORT LOOKS like its most favored at the 1630-1635 area where I’ve circled two TREND LINES coming into play.  That is the most likely area of support on any pullbacks under 1640 for Friday.

Today is options expiration ----so the control boyz might try and keep GLD (GOLD ETD) as near to 160 as they can (which is 1640 spot gold) ------  and that goes a long way in explaining the action here near 1640.

RESISTANCE IS THE UPPER CHANNEL LINES at the 1648-1652 area.   IT TAKES a move above 1655-1660 to favor higher prices.   Until then we remain in a trade range.

IN SUMMARY – short term trends are due to turn, but next week won’t be a picnic either as a FED FOMC meeting and gold and silver futures options expiration is on tap.  COUNTERING that is the India Festivities coming up on the 24th .

FOR NOW – this choppy action continues, where every sharp rally has been countered by a move back to 1640.  Until we get out of this WEDGE here in gold – the chop will continue.  One of these moves will finally breakout – or breakdown --- and once a trend develops off of that , I’ll look to get in.

TRADERS can watch 1630-1635 for the lows today ---BUT any break below 1625 would favor lower to 1600 early next week------ and the 1648-1652 area as first resistance.   The one other support is the 1640 area ---- as the chart shows.

 07.00 A.M GMT
 We still expect an upside move today, where consolidation above 1653.00 might trigger a bullish rebound towards 1679.00. Consolidation below 1624.00 is sufficient to negate our positive outlook.
Support: 1638.00, 1632.00, 1628.00, 1624.00, 1608.00
Resistance: 1645.00, 1650.00, 1653.00, 1662.00, 1666.00
Our opinion is buying gold around 1638.00, 
targeting 1675.00, and stop loss below 1624.00.

 04.00 A.M GMT
 Long Term=Up (major resistance 1767-1804 needs to be exceeded on a monthly close)
Medium Term=NEUTRAL (Major Resistance 1767 Monthly Close) Very close to turning bearish.
Intermediate Term=Bearish (we remain in an choppy trading range -- and price is right at the bull/bear zone and can go either way.
Short Term= Bearish (Mixed results and a choppy trade range of 1600-1680 continues)
Support and Resistance for Friday
Initial Resistance for 1652-1662 and 2nd tier 1681-1688
Initial Support 1625-1635 and 1590-1605

Last night’s update listed resistance at 1655-1665 and the high was 1654.  Support was listed at 1635-1640 and the low was 1632.

Key Events coming:
Options expiration on 4/27 for Gold and Silver;(Gold expiration not a big contract month)
India festival April 24th- Akshaya Tritiya, the third day of the new moon of Vaishakh month (April-May), is considered one of the four most auspicious days of the Vedic Calendar. On this day the sun and the moon are simultaneously at their peak of brightness.
FOMC Meeting Two-day meeting, April 24-25.

Recap

Gold made its low early in the COMEX session, and they rallied hard for a very short time into the 10am key COMEX timeframe, and like it has been doing, turned down and retraced almost the entire move and then spent the rest of the day near the 1640 area. Meanwhile, silver once again held its lows after a rally back to the 32 area, price once again remained near the 31.60-31.70 area for the remainder of the day.

The underlying concern all week has been the continuing and on-going European Debt crisis.  Spain has been in the news all week and although there was another successful debt auction on Thursday morning, the markets turned down anyway.  Equities were weak also as housing starts, job claims, and leading indicators showed more weakness than expected.

THE IMF is meeting in Washington as the situation continues to get more and more dangerous in Europe.  The meeting is to see who is going to pony up more money to bailout Europe.  They seek to boost lending capacity and are looking for commitments.

Seasonal

The seasonal remains elusive and it seems like each rally attempt is met by unusual selling that takes place. We are now past mid Month April and nothing yet. Twice now, we’ve anticipated the start of this move and twice price has been rebuffed at the 1680-1688 area.

The next short term cycle turn is due April 20th (plus or minus 72 hours). The move to 1631 area on Thursday is more evidence that a cycle low is the odds favored time for it to take place between Friday and Monday.

The seasonal is fast going by the boards.  The short term cycles are due to bottom April 20th (plus or minus 72) hours with Friday the ideal day. The Thursday low at 1631 was below last week's low and qualifies as a new low inside the cycle window.

Seasonal chart



Short-Term

Gold traded below 1640 again on Thursday, getting as low as 1631.12 on FOREX SPOT, and about 75 cents lower than last week’s low.  The one big move of the day came after that low was achieved as a 20 dollar rally ensued from there over the course of an hour and a half into the key 10AM Comex New York time frame. From there price retraced almost the entire move back into the close.

 Markets continue to act totally erratic and not able to hold any trend whatsoever as the Thursday rally was just about totally erased once again. The chart below shows the action since the 1681 high as it continues in a choppy and overlapping condition with swift rallies only to sell off once the short term traders get on. This is exactly what happened  again on Thursday.

We’ve remained patient all week looking for some type of bottoming action. Tuesday looked like it had the makings as does today’s action at the lows. A short term decision point is arriving and while cycles are due to turn this week,  the choppy action leaves us no choice to remain patient. THE UPTREND line from the 1612 low points to the 1635 area as a key support point as we move to Friday.  If we break the Thursday lows and the channel lines, it will activate the lower channel line in the 1620 area.

As we move to Friday, first resistance remains at the 1650-1660 area. We’re going to need a close above 1665 as a minimum to neutralize this downtrend. More important will be the look of the pattern.  The pattern looked good on Tuesday and Thursday, but was erased on push backs under 1640.  The same erratic pattern will probably be in play until we move out of this price channel.

Gold has now been stopped 5 times already at 1655-1660 so that is the area we need to watch for as upside resistance.  As long as we are below that point, the downtrend from 1681 is still in play.

This zoom out view of the current downtrend channel shows that the upper line is still around 1670 and until we close above 1681 on a weekly basis, the downtrend will still be in play.

  What Next?

Thursday’s intraday rally moved up to the listed 1655 resistance (1654 was the high) and our listed downside advantage for Thursday played out to new lows, but in the end the closing price was only $2.50 lower than the Wednesday close.

We enter Friday at the same place we entered Thursday---with price sitting right at the 1640 area, and we cannot over look the potential for another break lower from this price zone. Trends remain down.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE 1633-1637 area is going to be an important price point for the Thursday trade and first support.  If we break down below the 1631 low it will favor lower prices into Monday and the 1570-1600 area will be in play. Friday’s resistance will be in the same area but just a bit lower at the 1652-1662 area. This thing can still go either way, but the downside has the advantage.  In summary, the trend remains down. We discussed Thursday’s potential to establish a low point and normally we would expect a Friday bounce. While that has been happening these past few weeks, Friday’s have provided failures to the downside a lot more since the Feb 29th peak.

SHORT TERM CYCLES ARE IN THE “SWEET SPOT” as odds favor a cycle low at its highest on April 20th  (plus or minus 72 hours).  That means that Today’s low is A POTENTIAL CANDIDATE FOR THE LOW.  We don’t know yet if that is the case, but we need to watch carefully here in case it develops.

The current pattern has been a nasty one with price reversals on each bounce attempt. To make matters worse, the bounce attempts are HARD UP and fast and give the impression the lows are in place but then reverse back lower.  One of these MOVES will not reverse and will keep going higher but there is no way to gauge which one it will be.

Bottom Line
Going to the Chart Below

 Look how that dotted red line again held the lows of the day. So far each new low this week has held the price lows.

If this line gives way, then the 1600 area is going to come into play, but more dangerous is the next lower dotted trend line is not until the 1500 area. A WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 1620 on FRIDAY activates that lower DOTTED trend line and makes it part of the picture as the next major support zone. The 2011 downtrend line is crossing right at this point also so it has to be a consideration if we begin a sell off next week. If that develops, it would favor an inversion is underway on our short term cycles and lower prices would be favored to continue until the first week of May. It’s not the favored scenario, but one we have to be on guard for.  Watch the 1629-1635 area on FRIDAY --- as that is the most important support area at the moment. That dotted trend line keeps holding the lows and if that happens again on Friday then the 1630-1633 area should hold. IF it doesn't, then further downside potential would be activated.  With the short term cycles ready to turn---we'll be looking for price to close above the 1655-1670 area for further confirmation.  Until then, be careful.

April 19 
 04.00 P.M GMT
 Resistance for the remainder of the day 
is 1653-1656 and support is the 1638-1642 area. 

The underlying concern all week has been the continuing and on-going European Debt crisis.  Spain has been in the news all week and although there was another successful  debt auction on Thursday morning, the markets were further rattled this morning as Moody’s is going to review the triple A rating of FRANCE.  Although just a mention, the markets have ran with it this morning and it has increased an already nervous metals market.  However, the rating is likely to hold until 2013.

London Gold Fix $1,642.50 -$4.50

While the bears might be cheered by the lower low initially forged on the charts overnight and in New York this morning, gold prices have managed to right the ship and claw back into positive ground in the wake of the Spanish auction results and into the New York KEY10AM time frame. While it doesn't appear as if the auction results were favorable enough to push the markets into a definitive risk-on posture, a slightly higher yield was tolerated because of solid demand or the bid to cover on the Spanish Note offering.

Gold might also be garnering some support this morning from minimally favorable Indian gold demand talk. Apparently gold demand ahead of a festival in India is starting to rise, after some initial concern that Indian demand was going to remain weak. Other issues that might be lending minor support to gold prices overnight are hints that the PBOC might be poised to lend some liquidity to its markets, that Russian Central Bank gold and Forex holdings increased.

 However, countervailing the upside tilt today is a prediction from Indian officials that overall Indian gold imports this year will probably moderate from last year. In looking ahead, the bull camp needs positive US data and positive US equity market action to make sure the European debt news overnight is left in the rear view mirror.

THE IMF is meeting in Washington as the situation continues to get more and more dangerous in Europe.  The meeting is to see who is going to pony up more money to bailout Europe.  They seek to boost lending capacity to 389Billion. They have some commits, but they are looking to increase commitments.  They are meeting all weekend.  Switz, Poland made some pledges this morning.  So far the USA has not.  Lagarde said IMF finds Spain, and Italy face challenges, but she stated that Spain is not in need of a bailout at the moment ---saying the Govt has taken “serious Measures” --- but if there is a need – the IMF will be there to support if there is need.  She said the new ESM fund will invest directly to banks instead of going thru the sovereigns.  (Eliminate the middle man?)  NATIONS will have to buy into that proposal.

Equity markets in Australia and Hong Kong were higher overnight, with rumors that the PBOC might be set to provide some liquidity to its economy. Asian investors really didn't have that much time to react to the Spanish auction results. European markets were higher to start today on the mostly acceptable Spanish auction results but the markets were also falling back from those initial highs into the US opening. Early in the US trade today, share prices were mostly higher, with the markets generally relieved with the European debt auction results. The US economic report slate today was very active, with initial and ongoing claims (not as good as expected), existing home sales (not as good as expected), leading indictors and a Philly Fed manufacturing result (results so-so).. The US earnings  will also continue with the general influence of the earnings coming in as a positive for most commodity markets.

Gold going to the chart

 The short term trend TURN for this month is APRIL 20th---plus or minus 72 hours.

Last weeks SPOT FOREX LOW of 1631.82 was tested as the FOREX hit 1631.83 this morning, just one penny off of last week’s low before the big rebound to 1654 at the 10 am NEW YORK time.

The chart below is the move down since the 1681 high last week. One of the support lines off the 1612 low was hit on the lows todayundefinedand after penetrating it twice a strong bounce up has again developed as it has all week.  None of the hard bounces have held since this downtrend began. However, the short term trend TURN for this month is APRIL 20th---plus or minus 72 hours.  In other words we’re right in the window for a TURN and this mornings LOW GIVES US potentially the low we need for a trend change.  What we need to see now is FOLLOW thru to this move up this morning.  The 1655 – 1665 area continues to be resistance as today’s push was right there. So now its up to price to move above these resistance areas and then above 1660-1665.  That would significantly increase the potential that the lows for April are in place and a move up to the FIRST WEEK OF MAY will take center stage next week (or maybe beginning on Friday).

In Summary – Gold made a new low for the week – and its within 24 hours of when the ideal TURN DATE of April 20th comes into play so today’s low might have been it. SILVER did not confirm new lows like gold did (something we did not expect) and that also creates a diversion that might be hinting of that low that is due.  NOW GOLD NEEDS TO MOVE ABOVE THIS TREND LINE --- until then we remain in this downtrend.  Resistance for the remainder of the day is 1653-1656 and support is the 1638-1642 area.  –WE NEED ANOTHER PUSH ABOVE These lines to end this downtrend.

06.00 A.M GMT 
Long Term=Up (major resistance held the uptrend – Need monthly closes above 1767-1804)
Medium Term=NEUTRAL (Major Resistance 1767 Monthly Close) KEY SUPPORT AT (1579-1612) has held.  The 1700 area at the 34 week moving average is the next key target.
Intermediate Term=NEUTRAL (we remain in an choppy trading range)
Short Term=Bearish (Mixed results and a choppy trade range of 1600-1680 continues)
Support and Resistance for Thursday
Initial Resistance for 1655-1665 and 2nd tier 1681-1688
Initial Support 1635-1640 and 1625-1632
 

Recap

Gold prices fell again on Wednesday as concerns intensified over the outlook for Spain ahead of a bond auction again on Thursday, denting appetite for assets seen as higher risk and hurting the euro as well. Equities were hit in USA as well. We’ve been discussing that this could be the main concern of the week and it keeps on coming up.
Some quick notes below by Matthew O'Brien - associate editor at the Atlantic
Nearly a quarter of Spain's population is unemployed. Half of its youth are out of work. And it's only going to get worse. Spain is supposed to trim its deficit by some 5.5 percent of GDP over the next two years. That's not a recipe for growth. Just ask the IMF, which downgraded its projections for Spain's economy back in January.

 Seasonal

There is no change to last night’s comment:
The seasonal remains elusive and it seems like each rally attempt is met by unusual selling that takes place. We are now at mid Month April and nothing yet. Some seasonal price charts that are longer than just the last 10 years do show a dip into this portion of April (thanks Tim) but the fact is that gold is going to have to move above the 1681-1700 area before we can feel more confident about a rally.  Twice now, we’ve anticipated the start of this move and twice price has been rebuffed at the 1680-1688 area.  The mid-month portion is probably the last chance we are going to get this month (this week) for the April rally to take hold.  The next short term cycle turn is due April 20th (plus or minus 72 hours). The move to 1635 area on Tuesday is more evidence that this cycle point is going to be a low and we’ll probably see the April seasonal take place once the short term cycles bottom this week or Monday at the latest.

What Next?

Wednesday’s move up was very muted and while the low was not lower than Tuesday, it was another negative day.
We enter Thursday with price sitting right at the 1640 area, and we cannot over look the potential for another break lower from this price zone. Trends remain down.  We listed first intra session resistance at 1655 last night and the 1654 high on Wednesday makes this Thursday resistance. This thing can still go either way, but the downside has the advantage.  In summary, the trend remains down. There should be some low point established on Thursday and then some type of bounce.

Bottom Line

The final chart tonight is the Gann angle chart. Look how that dotted red line is holding on the price lows. If this line gives way, then the 1600 area is going to come into play. If it holds, we obviously will get a price bounce.
Short term cycles are due to bottom, the April seasonal is overdue, the Indian festival is next week, price is oversold and at key price levels-------------but the trend is still down and has not turned. Until it does, its best to be patient. There’s a weekly Buttonwood date and the monthly low cycle due April 20th – plus or minus 72 hours and Gold is completing the 34th week since the highs of August.  EVERYTHING IS IN PLACE NOW FOR A TURN --- all we need now is for price to agree and SHOW that it is reacting.  If we get a selloff to 1600 into Friday Monday, we’d look for a key low.  It takes a close above 1665 in order to favor the trend is turning up.

April 19
04.00 A.M GMT 
  Be warned that the gold price could always move 
higher in an unexpected price manner 

if central banks intervene in the markets

GOLD dropped 8 dollars overnight to record a small trading range again between $1638 and $1654, with trading volumes close to this year's low, as investors still heavily focus on the equity markets. Yesterday we saw further evidence of gold's fading safe-haven appeal as it fell following the lead of shares and other commodities. The US share market corrected slightly despite 80% of companies reporting earnings on Wednesday that beat estimates. A lack of physical demand from Asia also put pressure on precious metals as the market hasn't seen an expected comeback of buying after the jewellers' strike in India. We expect gold to be on its back foot in days to come and the downward trend resistance is still valid. In the medium term we may shift our view to bearish as the market is not buying the safe-haven story. However, be warned that the gold price could always move higher in an unexpected price manner if central banks intervene in the markets.

Compass Direction

• Short-Term: NEUTRAL
• Medium-Term: NEUTRAL

April 18
04.00 P.M GMT
CME NEWS

A pattern of lower highs has remained in place in the gold market and with gold prices showing initial negative divergence with the rest of the metals complex in the early going today, that has to give the bearssome added confidence. While there were some stories touting easing by the Chinese central bank overnight, credible easing evidence from the FOMC or the PBOC would seem to be mere speculation at the current time.

While gold seemed to recover yesterday in the wake of the impressive recovery effort in US equities, it could take a series of noted gains in equities to countervail numbers from the US this week that generally depicted a slowing of momentum in the US recovery.

Some gold players are looking ahead to the Spanish debt auction Thursday with some trepidation, as the fear of a resumption of European debt issues remains a gold market factor. Then this morning stories are being reported on Bloomberg that the EURO CRISIS will need 3 TRILLION DOLLARS if something is not done by next year.

While gold hasn't paid that much attention to supply side news lately, it is possible that news of a sharp rise in quarterly gold production at a Mexican miner has fostered some of the initial weakness in gold prices this morning. Unfortunately the US economic report slate today doesn't look to produce much in the way of guidance today and therefore gold and other commodity markets might have to take some direction from equities and the dollar market.

Frustrated bulls continue to hold out hope of easing evidence but unfortunately that might require an ongoing pattern of slack and soft US data.

Asian equity markets were stronger overnight, with Chinese investors relieved with the lack of disconcerting news flow from Europe. The Asian trade might also have seen some lift off US earnings news and there also seemed to be some ongoing hopes of easing from the PBOC. European markets were weaker to start today on what appeared to be a  profit taking setback and concerns on Spain. Early in the US trade today share prices were mixed, with the markets somewhat disappointed by tech sector earnings news yesterday afternoon. There will be a series of comments from the US Treasury Secretary and World Bank officials today.

Gold -- Gold to the Chart

Gold continues to struggle as more selling came into the market today at the 1655 area. Today's drop to 1638 keeps gold above yesterday's low but is still in a position where it can drift lower. Resistance for today is the 1655-1660 area and support is in the 1635-1640 area.

I STILL don't loke the market action at the moment. Until we see a move at least above the 1660-1665 area, the downside potential will remain in the market.

For now its best to remain patient and still have favor to the downside. It looks like the 1635-1640 area is going to be key for the remainder of the day and the downside bias is still down. 

Keep your eye on the 1638-1641 area as potential support.

 

April 18
12.00 A.M GMT

Since the beginning of the week gold has been trading within a tight range, and this range resides above the resistance for the downside wave that started from 1790.00 to 1612.00. Steady trading above 1624.00 supports the expectations for an intraday upside move.

Our opinion is buying gold above 1645.00 and 
take profit at 1681.00, stop loss below 1624.00


April 18
09.00 A.M GMT
Long Term=Up (major resistance held the uptrend – Need monthly closes above 1767-1804)
Medium Term=NEUTRAL (Major Resistance 1767 Monthly Close) KEY SUPPORT AT (1579-1612) has held.  The 1700 area at the 34 week moving average is the next key target.
Intermediate Term=NEUTRAL (we remain in an choppy trading range)
Short Term= Neutral/Bearish (Mixed results and a choppy trade range of 1600-1680 continues)
Support and Resistance for Wednesday
Initial Resistance for 1659-1669 and 2nd tier 1681-1688
Initial Support 1639-1649 and 1625-1632
Minor Resistance into London is the 1654-1656 area and minor support 1648-1649

Recap

June Gold finished slightly higher on the day, after trading 1635 on the low. Robust German consumer confidence (a leading indicator) encouraged investors to embrace risk and reduced pressure on Spanish bonds. This helped mitigate underwhelming U.S. housing starts (down 5.8% from February) and industrial production figures later that morning (FXM CONNECT NEWS)

Gold continues in a choppy trading range where rallies are quickly reversed but overall the 1660-1665 area is first resistance and 1640-1645 is first support.  A wider range of 1600-1680 is also a range to consider on a wider time frame.

Europe is firmly back in the news again, with the European Central Bank hinting that it may resort to further easing measures in order to relieve the pressure on Spain. Benoit Coeure, executive director at the European Central Bank, pointedly noted yesterday that market fears over economic problems in Spain were "not justified". He remarked: "Will the ECB intervene? We have an instrument, the securities markets program (SMP) which hasn't been used recently but it still exists."

Today’s auction in Spain was well received (surprise) and equities rallied hard today as the Dow once again tested an important resistance area 1388-1392 in the S&P500.

Seasonal

The seasonal remains elusive and it seems like each rally attempt is met by unusual selling that takes place. We are now at mid Month April and nothing yet. Some seasonal price charts that are longer than just the last 10 years do show a dip into this portion of April (thanks Tim) but the fact is that gold is going to have to move above the 1681-1700 area before we can feel more confident about a rally.  Twice now, we’ve anticipated the start of this move and twice price has been rebuffed at the 1680-1688 area.  The mid-month portion is probably the last chance we are going to get this month (this week) for the April rally to take hold.  The next short term cycle turn is due April 20th (plus or minus 72 hours). The move to 1635 area on Tuesday is more evidence that this cycle point is going to be a low and we’ll probably see the April seasonal take place once the short term cycles bottom this week or Monday at the latest.

Short-Term

Another unusual MARKET sell order sent gold to the 1635 area (just 3 dollars higher than last week’s low). We’ve been using the 1655-1665 (1660) as the key price point for gold to get back into UPSIDE action and we can see that the ‘control boyz’ are protecting that area and stopping all advances so far this week.  Today’s selloff must have scared the bears as price came roaring back up in a straight line 25 dollar rally back to 1660 before the boyz pushed price back to 1650.

Gold is trying to find support at the 1650 area as it tries to carve out a support line.  The only other strong line for Wednesday is below 1640.  While today’s move back up was a very strong showing, we do need to remain cautious as we keep getting these swift collapses in price. The chart shows the MAJOR chop we’ve been in since the high and today’s move back up was the FIRST IMPULSIVE behavior we see in a week.  The question is can it be sustained or are the boyz waiting to pounce again at important resistance points?    This line near the 1648-1650 area is first support on WEDNESDAY – if it holds, we’ll challenge 1660 again.

As we move to Wednesday, we are still fighting the Lower lows and the 1660 resistance area. We’re going to need a close above 1665 as a minimum to neutralize this downtrend. More important will be the look of the pattern. What we need to see is more of how today’s pattern looked like --- IMPULSIVE and not choppy and overlapping.

Mid-Week Wednesday arrives and often it is a great point for a high or low point in the week.  Like everything else lately, it can go either way.  Gold has now been stopped 4 times already at 1660 so that is the area we need to watch for.  That line we have labeled as important is a guide for Wednesday.  Anytime we are below it – there is downside potential.  But if we can begin to get support there, then Wednesday could provide us with a move to 1665-1675.  That line is a good PIVOT point from which to trade with – allow 3 to 4 dollars on either side for overlap. Remain cautious as the “raids” in gold have been with us each day.

What Next?

Wednesday favors another bounce up toward the 1660 area. The 1660-1670 will be resistance for Wednesday. With Mid Week Wednesday here, price usually has a knack of moving up. Since we’ve been in a bear trend, we often see them as price lows also.

Wednesday favors a test of the 1660 area again.  First intra session resistance is 1655  area. This thing can still go either way,  but the upside has a slight advantage.  Be careful as the trend is not YET UP and the big trading range is still in play.

April 17  
03.00 P.M GMT

Since the low at 1633 and the rally back up---it seems like the bulls have gotten a second wind and we may have seen the low for today and gold might play some late catch up with equities.
In summary – it looks like the low for the day is in –but the key now is whether gold can now get back above 1650-1655.  With equities up 140 DOW points, it favors a low in place for gold for today. WATCH THE 1650-1655 area.  IF THE BULLS CAN get price back above there, it will erase some of the bearishness on the charts.  SHORT TERM TRENDS are due to turn this week so the fact we made a low today helps the short term cause as it relates to a potential low this week.  

WATCH 1650-1655 as RESISTANCE ---- 

and if we break above there, 

then 1660-1665 will come back in play.   

 

06.00 A.M GMT

 IF WE HOLD this 1640-1645 area, then a test of 1665 should take place into Tuesday/Wednesday.  

 We can say that below 1640 favors lower and price will have to get above 1665 to favor higher.

 Long Term=Up (major resistance held the uptrend – Need monthly closes above 1767-1804)
Medium Term=NEUTRAL (Major Resistance 1767 Monthly Close) KEY SUPPORT AT (1579-1612) has held.  The 1700 area at the 34 week moving average is the next key target.
Intermediate Term=NEUTRAL (we remain in an choppy trading range)
Short Term= Neutral (Mixed results and a choppy trade range of 1600-1680 continues)
Support and Resistance for Tuesday
Initial Resistance for 1655-1665 and 2nd tier 1681-1688
Initial Support 1640-1645 and 1625-1632

Recap

Gold continues in a choppy trading range where rallies are quickly reversed but overall the 1660-1665 area is first resistance and 1640-1645 is first support.  A wider range of 1600-1680 is also a range to consider on a wider time frame. It was a very fractured market today in equities and gold.  At one point the Dow was up 100 points – the SPX unchanged --- and the Nasdaq down 18 points.  In the metals we had gold down 8 dollars at one point and silver up 2 cents.  It’s not often that it is this fractured.

Sentiment

Sentiment statistics are arriving at extremes and thus a bounce should not be far away for the gold stocks.  This is only the 4th time we see more bears than bulls.  This extreme sentiment plays well with the failure of the April seasonal to take effect so far.

Seasonal

The seasonal looks to have taken hold. We thought this was the case the week of March 22nd when gold reached the 1681 area and turned back down after the FOMC Fed statement about not supporting additional QE asset buying. Now once again gold has reached the 1681 area as the Thursday close COMEX close was 1680.50 on the June contract and the 5PM New York after hours close was at 1675.50 – two key numbers we’re watching.

In summary – it looks like the seasonal trend has arrived and a weekly close above 1681 on Friday and the 1700 area next week will favor higher into Mid May.

Short-Term

Last week’s breakout to the upside of a wedge on a strong up day had all the makings of a sustained move higher but it was not to be. Gold reversed and moved back down and broke the lows of the Thursday rally and the final carnage was laid out on Monday’s open in London where gold traded down to 1642 before reversing to move to the 1650 area on Monday’s close. The breakdown is a humble reminder that there are odds in the markets but there are no absolutes. We always try and play the odds and like a baseball player there will be days when we don’t get a hit. Of more concern is how gold is just hanging on by a thread here and the potential for gold to go re-visit the 1600-1625 area has grown considerably.  From a short term basis we can say that below 1640 favors lower and price will have to get above 1665 to favor higher. The trend line that price is resting on is an important point for the Tuesday trade.

 The current market is fraught with land mines.  The chart below is a perfect example of what we mean when trying to trade this current price range.  Gold rallied from 3 am New York time into the 9:30 am COMEX session and moved from 1642 to 1659 and then a huge selloff once again came into the market that erased the entire rally in 30 minutes and wiped out the entire move. These kind of moves makes it almost impossible to put on a position with any type of confidence that the market will trend and little by little more and more traders are standing aside until this mess clears up.  Once that sell off was complete, the market kept in a tight 4 dollar range that has remained with us as of this writing.

 What Next?

In our last update we discussed that the one thing we did not like was the choppy price pattern that gold has exhibited since the lows at 1600. Of course, gold reversed lower just a few hours after that update at the 1681 area in what is now a SECOND rejection of such an important price point. We also emphasized how there has been relentless selling at the bid price in gold on the FOREX over the past two weeks. That has slowed a bit but the selling is still greater on the bid then the asking price. And that is what OBV (On balance volume measures). Whenever trades happen on the ASK price, it’s a bullish factor.  And when transactions take place on the bid side, it has a bearish tilt. By adding the trades on both bid and ask, and subtracting the higher number from the lower, we get which side of the market (bid or ask) is getting more action and can provide subtle clues as to direction of the trend.

This TICK chart below of gold is the same one from earlier in the report but it’s worth a reprint because it shows how gold has to recapture and be above this downtrend line as a minimum to establish any upside potential. Thus we can say over the next trade day that we need to maintain above the 1645-1650 area---again as a minimum.  And we can also see how important it is to get back above 1665 and then into one of those blue channel lines.

Thus if we begin to trade below 1645 again it will quickly tilt the odds in favor of the bears. Should we break 1641 on Tuesday, it would open up and activate a potential price move lower towards the 1600-1625 area.

If price breaks that lower red dotted channel line---favor lower and hard for a few days as the short term cycle window completes. IF WE HOLD this 1640-1645 area, then a test of 1665 should take place into Tuesday/Wednesday.  Under 1640-1642 the downside is highly favored as the outcome. If price can get above 1655 (chart above) then it will favor 1660-1665 on Tuesday.  In summary we’re waiting for this short term cycle to end and we hope to get out of this choppy trade range.

04.00 A.M GMT
Economic Events scheduled for April 17, 2012 that affect the European and American Markets
09:30     GBP        CPI (YoY)                      3.4%
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
10:00      EUR         CPI (YoY)           2.6%          2.6%
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
10:00      EUR        German ZEW Economic Sentiment        19.0        22.3
The German Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment Index gauges the six-month economic outlook. A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts.
10:00      EUR       Core CPI (YoY)                              1.5%
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco. The data has a relatively mild impact because overall CPI is the European Central Bank’s mandated inflation target.
13:30      USD        Building Permits         0.71M        0.71M
Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.
13:30      USD        Housing Starts         0.70M        0.70M
Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector.
14:15      USD      Industrial Production (MoM)                               0.5%
Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

02.00 A.M GMT

GOLD fell towards 1640 after a breach of the support of 1650 during the Asian morning, before the lack of further offers saw the price drifting up in choppy trading to open this morning at 1652, almost flat to the last open, recording a relatively small trading range of 1641/1657. Yesterday, an absence of any news related to further monetary stimulus from the US has had most traders sidelined and gold moved only marginally higher from its low despite a surging euro overnight. We will continue to observe market appetite for gold in the face of risk events to assess the safe-haven demand for it. However at this stage the yellow metal seems to underperform against US treasury bonds in response to risk aversion. In general we maintain our neutral view in the mid term until the price falls below 1600 or rises towards 1800 as the gold market finds or loses confidence in the upward multi-year trend. Short term wise we maintain a neutral bias as the resistance trend line has been valid for weeks

Compass Direction

• Short-Term: NEUTRAL
• Medium-Term: NEUTRAL

April 16
04.00 P.M GMT

The US economic report slate today could be important with March retail sales showing an .8% gain, in line with expectations but its still easy to view the report as weak overall.

 Also due out today a Empire State Manufacturing --  The general business conditions index dropped fourteen points to 6.6, suggesting that while growth continued, the pace slowed over the month. The new orders index was little changed at 6.5, indicating a modest increase in orders, and the shipments index fell twelve points to 6.4, indicating a slower pace of growth for shipments.

NAHB April housing index  was DOWN from 28 to 25)  and Business Inventories rose 0.6%. Many of the secondary reports are expected to be slightly lower and or unchanged.

Gold and the markets are split as to their direction and the same with news.  For instance, the decision for China to widen its trade band on the Yuan have some declaring it as the move has begun for a new reserve currency while others say they are trying to maintain a soft landing for their economy.  And even that is strange when you consider an economy expanding at 8% being labeled as a soft landing.  I guess what I’m trying to get at is the info coming in is subject to EXTREME opposites depending on who is evaluating the current situation.

Gold going to the Chart

It’s the same for the gold chart. With two major failures at 1680 on a weekly basis, gold reversed itself last Friday and moved down to 1642 this morning during the London session – a full 40 dollars lower from Friday afternoon.

The action is the same this morning.  Gold moves to 1659 and smashes to 1645 in a matter of minutes on the latest trade.  We see gold down 15 dollars at times when silver is up a few cents similar to this mornings Stock market reading where the DOW is up almost 100 points and the S&P500 is unchanged or down a little.  It makes for an environment for traders to shut off the screen and doing something constructive (and less expensive) for the day.

Resistance looks solid at the 1660-1665 area and 

support looks to be 1640-1645.  

As far as direction once out of this trade range ---one can make a case either way.  Gold was well described as a money pit right now----where big rallies like Friday’s on the chart get erased by the next days trade as if it were nothing.

In summary – the trends remain down in gold in all categories except the long term.  The expectation for an April seasonal rally has now twice been rejected at 1680 --- taking trades out on stops. Thus the market is in what I refer to as a “FRUSTRATION” category where it shakes off trades on the long side as well as the short side and becomes a money drain for traders.  And it’s the type of situation where it just keeps doing it until we step aside in trade and then of course it will move.  I took a long Friday at 1663 but got stopped out in London this morning.  Until this type of action clears up --- up 30 dollars --- down 30 dollars ---- as frustrating as it is -- this is what we have and its best to stand aside until we get a real trend and not a chop.

09.00 A.M GMT

Long term trends are up, medium term neutral and intermediate term still bearish.  
It’s best to remain cautious
It takes a close above 1681 on a weekly basis to neutralize the current pullback.  Until then gold can still turn lower.
Another drop below 1642 today favors lower prices and would target 1622.

 08.00 A.M GMT
Gold Weekly Update
Long Term – Up -But failed at key resistance of 1767-1804 and correction in progress.
Medium Term –Neutral – correction in progress since August and still in play.
Intermediate term – Bearish (Last week’s failure at 1681 leaves the downside open.
Short Term – Neutral  – Short term cycles are mixed and can go either way this coming week.  (See details below in the cycle’s section)
Resistance for this week 1660-1665 /2nd 1677-1687
Support for this week 1634-1644/2nd tier 1612-1625

RECAP

it was another down week in US markets and commodities. Gold and silver actually went their own way into Thursday and Friday but started moving lower as the London session arrived and then was pummeled late on Friday as someone unloaded 8000 gold contracts at the bid price and it was over in about 6 seconds as gold move from 1680 all the way down to under 1650 and actually made a new low under the Thursday price in what can only be deemed again as suspicious. What was interesting was how they tried to short the gold market down on Thursday but were unsuccessful.
As far as the FED goes, we can’t recall one day last week when there wasn’t one speech or other by someone.  In the old days, we’d hear from the Fed once a year in some cryptic statement. Then it got to once a quarter and then once a month.  Lately it’s a couple of times a week, and mostly when gold approaches 1700, but I’m sure that’s just a coincidence. Even more fascinating is the Fed Chief going out on the college circuit to discuss how the Fed works and the almost can’t help but laugh news media spots where they have two students interviewed and how they hold the highest regard for how the Feds “SAVED” us in 2008.  Simply fascinating.
We discussed that QE hasn’t stopped nor will it and the Europe crisis and Spain is making its way to the forefront once again and if it escalates, it will not be good (initially) for gold and silver as a liquidity squeeze is the one thing has the potential for gold and silver to correct (along with all the other markets).
The new focus on Spain, and the Weekend decision by China to allow the Yuan to trade at wider trading bans still has the market under pressure in early Asian trade on Monday morning.

The Current situation

Two weeks ago it was 1500 contracts that was dumped at market prices causing gold to correct and last week it looks like 7000 contracts traded at the bid in about 6 seconds on Friday afternoon in  the New York Session just before the close. The on balance volume on the TICK chart below shows that about 7000 suddenly traded on the bid price and resulted in all the stops getting hit until the initial bounce at 1655.  Again we ask who would sell that much gold at the market.  And again, since when does Bernanke do speeches 10 minutes before the gold close on a Friday afternoon?  I’m starting to lose track of how many speeches he makes per week now.
From a price perspective, this puts gold in a tuff situation as we enter the week, and it opens up the door once again for gold to go through another plunge.

 

07.00 A.M GMT

Gold declined to breach 23.6% Fibonacci correction at 1653.00 and continues to trade with a downside bias approaching a retest of the descending channel’s resistance that was previously breached and now turned into support at 1642.00.  

This decline accompanies momentum indicators entering oversold areas which offer the possibility for an upside rebound from the mentioned areas.  

Therefore, we prefer to stay neutral for now and observe trading around 1642.00 as a breach of which will revive the bearishness and halts the upside correction that started from the recorded trough at 1612.00.

06.00 A.M GMT
Price will rally into our April 23 or 26 Daily Date

A price rally into late April is expected. Ideally, price will rally into our April 23 or 26 Daily Date.
If the character of the expected April rally is weak, then we would consider a larger drop into mid May. If the April rally is strong, then the price drop into mid May should be milder. The ability of price to pass the previous highs of late February will be a requirement for the label of a strong rally.
If prices drop below the late March lows, then our expectations for an April rally come into question.
The general equities have been charging higher and not responding to our Buttonwood Dates. The Early April LT dates have the best chance of starting a correction in Equities.

The next Buttonwoods Focus Date is the April 23 or April 26 Daily Date.

 My personal preference is April 26

But it could be either. If price heads lower than the late March low, then we know our analysis is incorrect. In that case, we would look for another opportunity to purchase Precious metals at a lower price. We do not use margin.

05.00 A.M GMT

SPOT GOLD closed lower on Friday and the lowrange close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signalling sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm. Closes above last Monday's high crossing are needed to confirm that a shortterm low has been posted. If it extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the DecemberFebruary rally crossing is the next downside target.

01.00 A.M GMT
Gold First resistance on Monday is the 1665-1675

April has arrived but not the higher seasonal for gold. We have had two failure right at the PRICE point we’ve identified as the most important (1681-16880 to NEUTRALIZE the downtrend in metals and metal stocks.  Silver stocks have simply gotten pummeled and have moved to lows the markets thought would never be witnessed again.
One of the things we do as investors is we get in TOO FAST and GET OUT TO LATE.  If your building up a long term investment, you must be patient and only buy at the LOWER END of the price channels and when price is at or below the long and medium term moving averages that have been established as the best price points in the 21st Century Gold and Silver Bull Market and that is the 34 week and monthly moving averages.  Buying at those times (and when the market price is at the bottom of our longer term channels has always shown to be the best times to buy.
Time is also an element. The best time to buy bullion, silver and stocks is the month of April and July.  The best time to sell is the November and February time frame. If you’re a medium term investor, consider going from 100% to 75% in November and down to 50% in January/February.  Then in April, go to 75% long and once again in July/August, go back to 100% long.
If you’re a long term investor, you might not be selling, but the best time to add is April and July/August---and especially if price is near the lower channels on our charts or at the long term moving averages.
We’ve been waiting for the April rally and so far the market has TURNED price back down right at our 1681undefined1688 price area we’ve identified as the zone we need to get above.  Once we do, the chart below shows the most likely action we should expect.  We say should because while the seasonal trends are reliable, there are years when a contra-seasonal move develops and because there are so many commercial players in the market who follow the seasonal, when a contra-seasonal event happens, they are forced to COVER THEIR POSITIONS and HEDGEs and that results in big moves as they are the biggest force in the commodity markets. (YEA – I know, the ‘control boyz’ are a greater force at the moment---but the commercials are usually on the right side of the market and have the biggest positions and since they are in the business, they have the best insight as to price trends.)

The upcoming period is usually one of the strongest of the year for the metals. The chart below shows the next 6 weeks to be where the strongest ‘momentum’ of the year takes place.  If you’re under invested in your gold accumulation, this is one of the two times per year to consider adding to your holdings.

As long as they keep printing---Gold will keep rising.

Gold Vs Printing


Five Minutes with Juan Carlos Arigas

Juan Carlos Artigas is the global head of investment research at the World Gold Council in New York, where he is in charge of writing strategic and research notes that put gold in the context of global financial markets. He spoke at the Initiatives in Art and Culture gold conference about global and individual diversification of investments using gold and answered a few questions from JLN Metals editor Nicole V. Rohr.

Q: How has global gold supply and demand shifted?

A: If you looked at demand flow and supply flows a couple of years ago, you would have seen three sources of demand and three sources of supply. On the demand side, you would have had jewelry, investment and technology. On the supply side, you would have had mine production, recycling activities and central banks. As a whole, so collectively, central banks used to be a net source of supply. That trend started to shift little by little, so it was not a sudden move and suddenly central banks were buying. It was a graduate transformation, and over the past couple of years... central banks as a whole have become a net source of demand. When you look at that picture today, you see four sources of demand and two sources of supply.

Central banks have turned from net sellers into net buyers. The rationale is the same: diversification. When we saw selling in gold through central banks, it was primarily driven by European central banks diversifying away from gold. What we are seeing now is emerging markets’ central banks diversifying in part away from the dollar by including gold in their foreign reserves. And we expect that trend to be here in the sense of diversification and managing the reserves, and we have seen this structural shift in their behavior.

Q: How does idea of diversification apply to the individual investor?

A: That is very interesting, I think, because if it makes sense for central banks to use gold as a diversifier, it makes even more sense for an individual to use gold as a diversifier. And part of the reason is the following: Think about what central banks hold. Central banks only hold sovereign debt... Most of those assets tend to have low volatility. They are coupons. So, it’s a very conservative, in some sense, set of assets. It is much correlated, but it’s fairly conservative in the typical sense of the word.

When you go to an investor’s portfolio, the investor’s portfolio is going to have stocks, it’s going to have bonds, and it’s going to have many other things. The profile is typically riskier in the sense that you have more volatility, you may have less liquidity, you are maybe exposed to more counter party risk, etc. In that context, gold is very important. Why? Because it’s providing diversification. So, it’s not going to react in the same way that stocks do or bonds do or other commodities do, or even some of the less liquid assets like private equity [do]. On the other hand, its preserving wealth, so it hedges against inflation over the long term and it provides also a hedge against the dollar, the currency. And it typically performs very well when you have a systemic problem in an economy - a financial crisis, an economic crisis. Gold is going to be able to provide liquidity. You can count [on the fact] that gold is one of the assets that you can use to raise cash if you need to, and it’s also going to be going up in terms of an asset that investors go to preserve wealth, so capital preservation. In that sense, with the capital preservation aspect, with the portfolio risk management aspect, gold is crucial.

Q: Why are people surprised that the U.S. is one of the top three producers of gold in the world?

A: Not so many people really understand the gold market. That really stands out. Investors in the U.S., I think, tend to be very U.S.-centric, for good reason. For many decades, the U.S. was the driver of the global economy, the U.S. currency was the currency reserve of choice, and many of the things that happened in the U.S. would drive events around the world. The problem when you extrapolate that same behavior to gold is that the U.S. is only one part and one component of the overall gold market. When you only see the U.S., you forget that there is 87 percent of demand that is not coming from there. So, what has happened is that investors have typically seen factors and assets and everything in the context of the U.S.

For gold, when you haven’t really seen too many things about the outside world, you tend to think, “Well, what was [happening] in the 1970s?” Well, gold was coming from Africa, and people haven’t really been following the market, so they don’t understand the market so much and haven’t realized how diverse the supply chain is, as well. But for some reason, it hasn’t sunk in that the U.S. is a very important, strong producer of gold, and that also helps gold in being a far more stable asset because it’s less subject to the same idiosyncratic or geopolitical risks that many commodities tend to experience.

Summary

The current time frame is usually one of the two best times of the year for gold, silver, and gold stocks.  Long term accumulation or for a swing trade in April is a consideration at the 1600-1650 area in gold and the 30 - 32 dollar area in silver.

00.00 A.M GMT

There is bearish potential for a fall to 1644
After this fall a recovery up to 1667 - 1673

Supports / Resistances
Res 2    1,689.6600
Ex-High    1,678.0300
Res 1    1,672.8300
Pivot    1,661.2000
Sup 1    1,644.3700
Ex-Low    1,649.5600
Sup 2    1,632.7300

European markets traded on a negative note today as unfavorable GDP data from China led to rise in risk aversion in the global markets. China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a slower pace in nearly three years by 8.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012 with respect to 8.9 percent in fourth quarter of 2011. Additionally, Spain’s bond yield rose today after data indicating Spanish banks borrowed heavily from the European Central Bank in March which also acted as a negative factor for market sentiments.

Gold prices declined by 0.1 percent today on the back of strengthen in dollar index and choppy sentiments in the global markets. The yellow metal touched an intra-day low of $ 1669/oz and hovered around $ 1674/oz Spot gold held steady after posting almost one percent rise in the previous session.

Bullions have already digested the news of contraction of the Chinese economy in the first quarter of 2012 and better than expected outcome for the Italian bond auction. Chinese GDP expansion eased to 8.1 percent compared to the last quarter’s 8.9 percent. At the same time investors will keenly watch the outcome of the Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s speech hoping for a hint of monetary easing.

Gold continues to fall, on disappointing data from the US.

The cost of living rose again in March even as the price of gasoline leveled off, the U.S. government reported Friday.

The consumer price index climbed 0.3% last month as the cost of most goods and services rose, the Labor Department said. The increase outstripped the rise in wages, so inflation-adjusted earnings for the average American worker fell 0.1% last month.

Economists expected a 0.2% increase in the cost of living.

Consumer sentiment defies economists’ expectations in early April, easing on worries about current conditions, according to the University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters.

We will all wait to play the Bernanke shuffle as he speaks today. We will see what he does to the markets. Will Gold go up or down; the markets are waiting a direction.

Economic Events for April 16, 2012

08:15      CHF       PPI (MoM)        0.5%       0.8%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

13:30       USD        Core Retail Sales (MoM)        0.6%        0.9%

Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered as a pace indicator for the U.S. economy.

13:30      CAD        Foreign Securities Purchases                -4.19B

Foreign Securities Purchases measures the overall value of domestic stocks, bonds, and money-market assets purchased by foreign investors.

13:30      USD         Retail Sales (MoM)        0.4%         1.1%

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

13:30       USD         NY Empire State Manufacturing Index         21.1         20.2

The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening

YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.

Do your own due diligence.   

No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.  

I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.  

 I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 

King Regards.