AUG 31
5.00 A.M. GMT
5.00 A.M. GMT
The market
I am using 1660 as a pivot on Friday.
Above 1662 and the bias is to the upside --- Below 1558 and the bias is to the downside
Medium Term Situation
If there was a major announcement tomorrow it would be possible for gold to exceed some important points.
The Red arrows show the beginning of September which is the strongest month of the year. Last year was a cycle inversion. We got a price high in August/September instead of giving a low. August highs are not usually bullish outcomes.
Gold is at the very tip of the 2011 downtrend line. A weekly close above 1685-1700 would exceed the downtrend line and favor higher prices. It is one of the most important technical aspects in going from a downtrend to an uptrend. It is a line in the sand for the uptrend.
As long as gold has weekly closes below the 2011 downtrend line, the downside is still possible.
Gold Hourly Chart
Here are the key points the favored pullback price area has been the 1657 zone. We’ve touched it every day this week. Monday was 1657.30 low. The lowest price this week is 1652.
The correction in the blue channel:
The chart pattern in this correction is choppy and overlapping and odds favor that this is only a correction. That would mean there is one more wave to the upside. However, any negative statements would not matter. The market will not adhere to chart rules on a day like tomorrow. The chart pattern is five waves and has the same shape and form as the correction right before the up move we just had.
Anytime we are above the lower yellow channel line (1660) the market has stopped going down. Anytime we are above the resistance line or 1675, the potential to move higher is in play. IF WE START TRADING ABOVE 1669-1675 the potential to move higher could be in play. 31GOLHRLYAUG
Other notes about the hourly chart.
Potential Lows:
The 1645-1650 is a potential low where the lowest purple line meets the lower blue downtrend channel line. That is only 8 to 13 dollars from last night’s close. The 1633-1636 area, where the white arrow is, is where a spike low could occur. Just a bit underneath the first consolidation of price on the way up after the breakout. That area is 22 to 25 dollars away from last night’s close. The lower red and blue line at 1615-1620 would be the original breakout line and is 42 dollars away from last night’s close.
Cycles if the cycles continue to do what they have done all year, then we will see a two week pullback from this point. The “window” for this cycle was August 30th (Plus or minus 72 hours)
ANY CLOSE ABOVE 1685-1700 favors higher and could set a cycle inversion in play
------------------------------------------------------ NOTE:
The trade strategy below is It is an aggressive trade strategy for the long side and a consideration for those who want to be aggressive in front of the Jackson Hole meeting.
Gold Current AGGRESSIVE Trade Status
– BGT 1 DEC MINI GOLD AT 1657 --- STOP LOSS 1630
– buy 1 DEC MINI GOLD AT 1645 --- STOP LOSS 1630
If gold TRADES ABOVE 1668 bring your stops up to 1645
If Gold Trades ABOVE 1675 bring your stop up to break.
I am using 1660 as a pivot on Friday.
Above 1662 and the bias is to the upside --- Below 1558 and the bias is to the downside
Medium Term Situation
If there was a major announcement tomorrow it would be possible for gold to exceed some important points.
The Red arrows show the beginning of September which is the strongest month of the year. Last year was a cycle inversion. We got a price high in August/September instead of giving a low. August highs are not usually bullish outcomes.
Gold is at the very tip of the 2011 downtrend line. A weekly close above 1685-1700 would exceed the downtrend line and favor higher prices. It is one of the most important technical aspects in going from a downtrend to an uptrend. It is a line in the sand for the uptrend.
As long as gold has weekly closes below the 2011 downtrend line, the downside is still possible.
Gold Hourly Chart
Here are the key points the favored pullback price area has been the 1657 zone. We’ve touched it every day this week. Monday was 1657.30 low. The lowest price this week is 1652.
The correction in the blue channel:
The chart pattern in this correction is choppy and overlapping and odds favor that this is only a correction. That would mean there is one more wave to the upside. However, any negative statements would not matter. The market will not adhere to chart rules on a day like tomorrow. The chart pattern is five waves and has the same shape and form as the correction right before the up move we just had.
Anytime we are above the lower yellow channel line (1660) the market has stopped going down. Anytime we are above the resistance line or 1675, the potential to move higher is in play. IF WE START TRADING ABOVE 1669-1675 the potential to move higher could be in play. 31GOLHRLYAUG
Other notes about the hourly chart.
Potential Lows:
The 1645-1650 is a potential low where the lowest purple line meets the lower blue downtrend channel line. That is only 8 to 13 dollars from last night’s close. The 1633-1636 area, where the white arrow is, is where a spike low could occur. Just a bit underneath the first consolidation of price on the way up after the breakout. That area is 22 to 25 dollars away from last night’s close. The lower red and blue line at 1615-1620 would be the original breakout line and is 42 dollars away from last night’s close.
Cycles if the cycles continue to do what they have done all year, then we will see a two week pullback from this point. The “window” for this cycle was August 30th (Plus or minus 72 hours)
ANY CLOSE ABOVE 1685-1700 favors higher and could set a cycle inversion in play
------------------------------------------------------ NOTE:
The trade strategy below is It is an aggressive trade strategy for the long side and a consideration for those who want to be aggressive in front of the Jackson Hole meeting.
Gold Current AGGRESSIVE Trade Status
– BGT 1 DEC MINI GOLD AT 1657 --- STOP LOSS 1630
– buy 1 DEC MINI GOLD AT 1645 --- STOP LOSS 1630
If gold TRADES ABOVE 1668 bring your stops up to 1645
If Gold Trades ABOVE 1675 bring your stop up to break.
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
