Long Term-Neutral – Need a monthly close above 1490-1526 in May to regain Bullish status.
Medium Term=Bearish Need a close above 1650-1675 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term=Bearish –need a close above 1448 for bullish
Short Term=Neutral -close below 1371 bears could take control. Got to hold 1371 closing basis otherwise 1343-1363
Support and Resistance
(NOTE JUNE GOLD NUMBERS)
Initial Resistance 1394-1404 and 2nd tier 1426-1434
Initial Support 1373-1383 and 2nd tier 1355-1365
Medium Term=Bearish Need a close above 1650-1675 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term=Bearish –need a close above 1448 for bullish
Short Term=Neutral -close below 1371 bears could take control. Got to hold 1371 closing basis otherwise 1343-1363
Support and Resistance
(NOTE JUNE GOLD NUMBERS)
Initial Resistance 1394-1404 and 2nd tier 1426-1434
Initial Support 1373-1383 and 2nd tier 1355-1365
Pivot points in Gold
these are the price point’s traders are watching on a daily, weekly and monthly level as to whether to be long or short. They go with the market. R1, R2 and S1 and S2 are standard deviations from the pivot with the 1’s (one standard deviation) and the 2’s (2 standard deviations).
these are the price point’s traders are watching on a daily, weekly and monthly level as to whether to be long or short. They go with the market. R1, R2 and S1 and S2 are standard deviations from the pivot with the 1’s (one standard deviation) and the 2’s (2 standard deviations).
Gold Short Term
the yellow line where gold touched on Monday is 1st support for the week at the 1366-1373 area. Any close below 1366 favors a test the lines at 1350-1360. Resistance was the 1387-1394 area and then 1399-1404 listed on Tuesday. We have reached 1394.40 at the beginning of the resistance lines and the green 200 hour moving average. Resistance is up to the 1404 area. A close above 1404 would open the upside to 1426-1440.
We discussed watching the 1370-1373 area on Tuesday’s update, and the low since then was 1372.20 August gold. So far the lows have held the 1366 hourly support and might have been the low for the week. An hourly close below 1366 would open the door to 1350-1360. For now we've gotten out bounce and high for the week on Wednesday at the resistance line. Now to see if it ends here at 1394-1404. The choppy conditions persist in gold and while the short term cycle still points down, the COT position in gold leaves the potential open for and explosive situation should gold catch a bid. If gold closes above 1404 then the downside trend is neutralized and would allow for further gains. Watch 1394-1404 and especially the 1394-1399 area. That’s where the majority of resistance resides.
What Next?
After holding 1366 on an hourly basis and having Wednesday’s low at 1372, gold has bounced back to resistance at 1388-1394 and up to 1404. Odds still favor this area should hold as the weekly high. With gold lately, there’s always ONE spike whether it be on the down or the upside that clears stops and then moves lower. So we could get a pinch to 1404. IF we close above 1404 then the downtrend will be neutralized. Otherwise the downtrend is still in play. Gold has been somewhat running counter to the stock market and the chart below favors the stock market has peaked and should enter a correction. Along with the super bullish COT position, it argues that the correction in metals should be setting up for a medium term move after the 22nd of the month.
Watch 1394-1399 and potentially 1404 as a peak price for this week. However, a close above 1404 will neutralize the downtrend. If cycles play out we still should see lower into next week.
Bottom Line
The pressure remains on the metals, especially silver. We did get a bounce into Wednesday and hit resistance. There are many bullish forces showing up in gold, especially where it looks like the major banks (Shorts) have reversed their position.
IT’s BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE THERE’s A LOT GOING ON BEHIND THE SCENES and its beginning to smell like something big is developing that the market is not yet aware of. It’s best to be cautious. The short position reversal going at a time when the medium term cycles are arriving is beginning to favor a change in character is coming for gold. Silver for the first time was stronger than gold a couple of days this week. That also needs to be watched. The only thing that has not fallen into place is the silver high open interest where the final remaining bulls have not been flushed out yet. If that situation could develop it would favor the final piece of the puzzle would be out of the way. In summary, it still looks like the market can drift lower into next week before we get a meaningful low.
Finally tonight, a monthly chart using Gann overlay (a Gunner software tool) that shows just how important support is at this area.
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
