Long Term-Neutral – Need a monthly close above 1490-1526 to regain Bullish status.
Medium Term=Bearish Need a close above 1650-1675 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term=Bearish –need a close above 1448 for bullish
Short Term=Bearish- A CLOSE ABOVE 1322-1337 IS NEEDED TO NEUTRALIZE THE DOWNTREND.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1247-1257 and 2nd tier 1271-1280
Initial Support 1215-1225 and 2nd tier 1189-1207
CME GROUP NEWS
The gold market fell out of bed again today with the majority of the declines seen early in the Wednesday morning trade. While gold attempted to recover it would seem like the gold trade won't easily discount the prospect of a coming end to global QE. It is also possible that knock on selling by gold derivative investors will keep negative headlines flowing in the days ahead, as gold prices falling down to fresh multi year lows is clearly damaging sentiment toward the yellow metal. With equities also siphoning off capital from gold, adverse currency market action and damaged charts, the bull camp just doesn't seem to have much to bolster their case.
Gold Overview
Gold sold off hard once again as the selling is rampant and all trends remain down. Today hit the 1220 support line on the hourly chart and a new short term cycle begins on Thursday. With the liquidity situation, there is a much higher potential then usual that this new cycle that lasts into July 7th could become another down trending one that would add another two weeks of lower price. We’ll have to see how gold reacts. There has been absolutely no strength in metals at all recently. At this point a lot of players are throwing in the towel as they’ve had enough of losses. With Mid-Week Wednesday providing the low so far this week it’s possible that we can bounce now over the next few days. With that said, the situation coming into Thursday keeps all trends in down mode. We’ll have to see if the cycle and the double bottom at 1220 become relevant.
Pivot points in Gold
these are the price point’s traders are watching on a daily, weekly and monthly level as to whether to be long or short. They go with the market. R1, R2 and S1 and S2 are standard deviations from the pivot with the 1’s (one standard deviation) and the 2’s (2 standard deviations).
KEY RESISTANCE POINT for the WEEK
Last week’s number was 1394-1412 and the high was 1391.70.
This week's number is 1313-1326 and *1337-1344 -- the high for the week so far was 1291.
Gold Hourly Chart
the short term trends are still down. We’ve hit the next support line and price is bouncing. It’s had two successful tests but that’s it. Until we close above 1280 the trend remains down. Support is 1220-1225 and 1189-1207 (last support not shown on chart). 1st resistance is the 1245-1255 area and then 1271-1281. At best all we can say at the moment is this line may provide this week’s low point from which we bounce.
What Next?
Wednesday may have reached a short term low and bounce support point on the hourly chart. Thursday favors a consolidation and a bounce with resistance in the 1241-1271 area. Support is the 1220-1225 area and then 1189-1207. All trends are down. The short term cycles are due to turn but this liquidity situation is obviously in charge thus cycles are secondary and price rules. Let’s see if we get a bounce.
Bottom Line
until things stabilize we have to keep favoring the downside. There may be a 1 to 2 week bounce in play on the short term cycles. But with that said, the trends are still down.
The thing that doesn’t make sense is the physical inventory situation at the Comex on the chart below. Until it affects price, we can’t say much more than just showing it.
