Long Term-Neutral – Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term=Bearish Need a close above 1525-1580 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term=Bearish –need a close above 1330 to neutralize the downtrend.
Short Term=Bearish- A CLOSE ABOVE 1275 IS NEEDED TO NEUTRALIZE THE DOWNTREND.
Medium Term=Bearish Need a close above 1525-1580 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term=Bearish –need a close above 1330 to neutralize the downtrend.
Short Term=Bearish- A CLOSE ABOVE 1275 IS NEEDED TO NEUTRALIZE THE DOWNTREND.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1282-1292 and 2nd tier 1304-1314
Initial Support 1245-1255 and 2nd tier 1222-1232
Initial Resistance 1282-1292 and 2nd tier 1304-1314
Initial Support 1245-1255 and 2nd tier 1222-1232
Gold Hourly Chart
We discussed last night that the short term trend was looking to turn up and that is still the case as we move to Thursday. Also as we discussed the short term cycles are mixed and the potential to invert higher could take place. If it does invert then the move up could be strong into the 22nd of the month.
On the chart gold held thru the Bernanke testimony and has popped up to the next yellow line on the chart and price is attempting to make it support. If the yellow line holds then gold should target 1300 and above. Thus as we move to Thursday the short term trend is still up. It’s possible that support could form around 1275 but if not 1242-1253 and the yellow line below 1240.
Monthly support lies at 1212-1222 and potentially near 1236. Additional support is 1172-1182 if a sharp selloff occurs. Resistance is the 1304-1315 area. As long as we remain above the green 200 hour moving average around 1242 and the yellow channel just below it, the short term upside is in play. The key now is for price to make that yellow line support. That’s the key action to watch.
What Next?
The Short term trend is no longer down and as we mentioned last night---looks to be turning up. Cycles however are mixed and if we invert on our short term cycle, odds favor the move higher would be strong into the 22nd of July. If we’re going to invert the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe is the most favored time for it to happen. A daily close above 1280 favor prices above 1300 to the 1304-1314 area. Since Bernanke said all the things he needed to in order to rescue the bond market, the reaction is probably higher. Keep in mind that we favor a real “recovery” for gold to excel and to begin its final phase of the bull market. The current BAILOUT and QE printing doesn’t work for gold because it’s to pay off bankers and bad debt and it doesn’t make it into the economy and therefore not in the hands of people that would SPEND IT and get things going.
Interestingly, a rise in interest rates would be a good thing if it was coming from DEMAND. So far it looks like it’s from investors exiting the market. The action might be enough however to cause a GOOD MOVE UP to begin and at least get some upside action for a change.
Bottom Line
Do not underestimate how big GOFO and the fact that the US bankers have covered their short positions. It’s about the strongest news we've seen since the bear market began for a potential bottom. It doesn't mean it has to start right away. But I’ll leave you with this chart as the last thing tonight.
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
