Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Gold Trend Nov 05, 2014

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Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway.
Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Gold needs to close above 1294 on a weekly and monthly basis for bullish outlook.
Intermediate Term ~ bearish-A low is due to develop this week and a reflex rally into latter November is the odds favored trend once the low is in.
Short Term ~ Bearish-The pullback into 1st week of November has taken place and odds favor a low Nov 7th (plus or minus 72 hours)

Initial Resistance 1173-1183 2nd tier 1194-1204
Initial Support 1155-1165 2nd tier 1144-1148

The last update listed 1178-1182 as resistance and the high was 1175. 
Support was 1155-1163 and the low was 1163.40

US Election Anxiety & ECB Mutiny Spark Small Cap Stocks & Dollar Selling

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/04/2014
It appears the excitement of US midterm election sparked a "sell-everything-American" strategy today as stocks, bonds, WTI crude, the dollar, Treasuries, and credit all sold off to a lesser or greater amount. Trannies started off liking weak oil prices but faded as WTI could not bounce off multi-year lows but stocks were jolted lower (before v-shape recovering to VWAP) by Mutiny at the ECB (and desk chatter that - as we have warned - QE is not coming). The decoupling continue as high yield presses to 2-week lows and Nikkei futures diverge from USDJPY. The dollar weakened back to unch on the week after Draghi but commodities saw no gains from that as gold, silver, and copper slipped. WTI dropped to as low as $75.85 at 3-year lows. VIX - helped by numerous CBOE 'breaks' today - jerked back below 15 (after trading above 16 briefly).

Paul Singer Slams The Fake World: "Fake Growth, Fake Money, Fake Jobs, Fake Stability, Fake Inflation Numbers"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/04/2014
"Nobody can predict how long governments can get away with fake growth, fake money, fake financial stability, fake jobs, fake inflation numbers and fake income growth. Our feeling is that confidence, especially when it is unjustified, is quite a thin veneer. When confidence is lost, that loss can be severe, sudden and simultaneous across a number of markets and sectors."
"The situation is universal, a consequence of incompetent leaders and careless (or ignorant) citizenry."

Into The Unknown

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/04/2014
“On October 15th 2014, if only for a few short minutes, market forces broke out and the failure of central bankers was briefly evident... There is a very simple lesson that when the markets finally break through the manipulation they move to price in deflation and not inflation. This is key because it means financial repression has failed.” These days, you don’t tend to hear the words ‘failure’ and ‘central bankers’ in the same sentence (unless the topic happens to be Zimbabwe). But perhaps the omniscience and omnipotence of central bankers is somewhat overstated.

GoldTrends has been warning that Europe is most likely the first to fall which will create a cascade of further deflationary events……. Here’s today’s latest;

Europe In Triple-Dip Recession, Goldman's Internal Model Finds

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/04/2014
Here is Goldman with the loudest warning yet, courtesy of its internal RETINA model, that Europe is now effectively in a triple-dip recession, with Q3 GDP for the Euro area at -0.2%: "We are less than a fortnight away from Eurostat's publication of its flash estimate of Q3 GDP growth in the Euro area. In today's Daily, we look through the lens of our contemporaneous tracker of real-time inflation and activity. Since our previous update in mid-October, RETINA's median estimate of Q3 GDP growth has moved deeper into negative territory, driven largely by a disappointing print for area-wide industrial production in August. The downside risks to our +0.1%qoq judgmental forecast for Q3 GDP now look skewed to such an extent that our point estimate no longer falls within a 50% confidence interval around RETINA's median reading."

And in good ole USA…………….

Factory Orders Slide 2nd Month In A Row

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/04/2014 - 10:11
Factory orders in September printed a drop of 0.6% MoM following Augusts 10.0% revised tumble off the spurious spending in July. This is the first 2-month-in-a-row drop in factory orders since January - amid the economy-crushing polar vortex.

Gold chart

Tonight we zoom in on gold and on this view it shows that a downtrend line is holding gold from moving higher out of this consolidation that has taken place since the Friday low. Since the Tuesday high at the trend line, gold keeps trying to get above it. The market will not put up with this much longer and if we going to break higher it must develop pretty much by sometime tomorrow or we’ll head and test that lower line near 1250. The line is steep so by Thursday it will already be down near 1140. So that is the support points into Wednesday. Resistance is the 1173-1178 and up to 1183 area. But the most important thing is to get above this channel line ASAP.

Gold 4 hour price chart with support and resistance 

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 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
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