Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Gold Trend Nov 12, 2014

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Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase 
underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Gold needs to close above 1272 on a weekly and monthly basis to neutralize the downtrend
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral/Bearish-Short term cycles favor higher into Nov 22nd
Short Term ~ Neutral- Short term cycles favor higher into Nov 22nd but the overall trend is still only neutral between 1252-1265.

Initial Resistance 1168-1178 2nd tier 1185-1190
Initial Support 1144-1154 2nd tier 1130-1133

The last update listed resistance at 1163-1173 and the high was 1172
Support was listed at 1138-1148 and the low was 1147.

"It's The Dollar"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/11/2014
Still think fundamentals matter? Still believe your analysis of Free-Cash-Flow, energy policy, or P/E multiples will pay off? Think again... according to our Gavekal Capital's Factor Scoring Model, the US dollar has been the most highly correlated factor (out of 30) with the MSCI World Index over the past year (which is why we have been focusing so much of our attention on it over the past few months). It has had a 0.98 correlation with the MSCI World Index.

The US Dollar

While we have been one of the few newsletters reporting that the US Dollar was bullish, the time is arriving for the USD to take a break. It looks like we are near or have completed 5 waves up and thus a correction is coming due.
Wave objectives (‘5’ wave = 2 xs ‘1’ wave & .618 xs ‘3’ wave) at 88.52--88.85 pinpointing the ideal range for an intermediate peak. The Dollar made it to 88.31 before pulling back. So while the trend is still up, we should be cautious for a peak here in the intermediate term. A weekly close above 89 would favor the USD moving to 91. Otherwise an intermediate term peak should be in the offing with a pullback towards 84 as first target.
Dollar Elliot Wave

Gold outlook Summary

Gold & Silver downside price levels may have found a bottom for now, setting the stage for at least an initial low. They need to turn their trends up - with daily closes above 1175 in December Gold Futures & 16.22 in December Silver futures to give more validation that a reaction rally could develop.

Short Term Gold
The unusual channel formations on the hourly are still providing resistance and support points. Today’s 1172 high was right at the mini red channel line. The key now is the blue 89 hour moving average has turned up and price is penetrating the green 200 hour moving average. It looks as though the averages are going to converge along with price and the decision as to whether we move higher will be made. If we can get above 1172, then the channel lines in the 1185-1190 area will become the target for this week and resistance.
Support will be the lower channel line and the 89 hour blue moving average (currently 1155). If we try and nail it down further, the 1167-1172 remains 1st resistance. A close above 1175 leads to 1185-1190. Support is 1145-1148 and 1153-1155.
In summary, the short term bottom looks in place and odds favor a move towards the 1185-1190 area on a close above 1175.

Gold hourly price chart
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 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
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