Monday, January 12, 2015

Gold Trend Jan 13, 2015

Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market 
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Gold needs to close above 1272 on a weekly and 
monthly basis to neutralize the downtrend.
Intermediate Term ~ Bullish– Resistance is 1238-1255.
Short Term ~ Bullish- Odds favor higher into Jan 19th (plus or minus 72 hours). 
Targets 1238-1242 or 1252-1272.

Initial Resistance 1238-1242 2nd tier 1252-1256
Initial Support 1221-1227 2nd tier 1208-1214

The last update listed resistance at 1229-1238 and the high was 1236. 
Support was listed at 1208-1214 and the low was 1217.

Gold reached our first weekly target of 1229-1234 on Monday. It’s always tough finding the most important stories as there is so much going on. It’s worth paying attention to what copper tells us. Is it about to join in the commodity plunge? While copper is not a precious metal, it’s the economic backbone metal and it’s yet another major development on the deflation/commodity situation. One NOTE; On the chart for copper in the report below, I have drawn the dotted blue trend line on the chart. I think that level is where copper would validate even more trouble. The break on the chart is important and I don’t want to down play it. But I think the dotted blue trend line is the one where we get danger signals.
The message for gold is we need to be careful. Right now gold is the only thing going up and while the bandwagon may jump on, the control boyz might have other ideas. Let’s remain short term bullish, but cautious at the 1238-1244 area and 1255 (plus or minus a few bucks).

Short term Gold
We got our close above 1225 today and we’ve reached first target of the week (1229-1234) by hitting 1235.85 on spot at the black dotted trend line we favored on last nights update. On the chart below, the expanded 8 hour chart, we can see the heaviest resistance for gold is just above. Today’s high was that first black dotted trend line. Note we have two others, one at 1238-1242 and then 1252-1260. (Note 1255 is also an important price point of resistance in Elloit Wave circles).
The key is gold needs to break above this black dotted downtrend line and challenge the other two. The December high is 1239 so I would expect the control boyz to EITHER hold that line, or allow a move to 1242 to clear the stops. They have to be careful because they know the Elliot Wave boyz are going to SHORT near 1255 and then reverse long on a close above 1256.30. That close would lead to 1272 as the first place the control boyz would re-group to try and turn price back down.
First Support is the 1215-1222 area on Tuesday and resistance at 1238-1242 and 1252-1255. The bulls have the advantage as we enter Monday up to that first black line. That 1229-1234 has the odds favored high area on Monday.

Odds still favor we move to 1242 and potentially up to 1252.

Gold 8 hour price chart

What Next?
We reached our 1229-1234 first weekly price target on Monday and the other place to watch now is 1238-1244 and potentially near the 1255 area. Its possible we get a consolidation day on Tuesday with the control boyz trying to hold gold below 1239 (the Dec high). Resistance is 1238-1242. If gold breaks above that then odds favor 1255 (plus or minus a few bucks).
The short term trend remains bullish and gold would have to close below 1204 in 
order to neutralize the situation.
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 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
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