Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Gold Trend Jan 15, 2015

Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the
bull market final phase underway. 
Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ BearishGold needs to close above 1272 on a weekly and monthly 

basis to neutralize the downtrend. 
Gold price has arrived at the medium term moving averages (1245-1262)
Intermediate Term ~ BullishResistance is 1238-1255.
Short Term ~ Bullish- Odds favor higher into Jan 19th (plus or minus 72 hours). 
Targets 1238-1242 or 1252-1272.

Initial Resistance 1238-1242 2nd tier 1251-1256

Initial Support 1217-1222 2nd tier 1195-1205

The last update listed resistance at 1238-1242 and the high was 1244. 

Support was listed at 1219-1227 and the low was 1225.

Gold Technical

On the short and intermediate term basis we have a double top today at 1244 and a price high for the week on Mid-Week Wednesday and also right at Mid-Month, where short term trend turns for the month are at its greatest synergy. Of course these are only odds/Norms for what more often than not happen in this vicinity of time. The short term window for the next cycle turn begins in just 26 hours and will remain open until The close of trade on next Wednesday. With that in mind a short term trend change is at its highest point of the month between Friday and Wednesday of next week.
The 1238-1244 level 2 target was met again today at 1244 and gold did the same thing as Tuesday as it then dropped to 1226 area before a mild recovery to end the day.

It is still not out of the question for gold to move to 1251-1261 but with the 1244 area reached twice, it should be viewed with a more caution.
With a double top in place again (just like at the December highs,) Thursday is favored to mostly probe the downside support again in the 1217-1225 area and then should make one more attempt to meet the cycle turn. If the trend is still up, odds favor that Friday would be another attempt at moving higher as the weekend arrives. Therefore it will also be IMPORTANT what all the other commodities are doing and now Stocks have joined the volatility. If stocks tank and commodities rise then gold should get a big boost. I would like to see the Euro find support near this area as well. That would bolster the case for the upside.
The only thing that doesn’t fit is the short term cycle window isn’t quite here and I don’t want to rule out upside to 1251-1261 area and one more splurge.

The best reading really is if the double top at 1244 gets taken out then favor higher to the next set of resistance points.

Short term Gold
Since the 1167 low at the start of the year, the choppy and overlapping pattern has stopped and this price pattern has turned impulsive. As long as that remains in play, the gold uptrend from the beginning of November has the potential to reach 1250-1260 or even 1272.

We got the move to 1238-1242 as favored last night with a 1244 print high. Like last night, it is still possible to move up to 1252 (1251-1261). What I’m not sure of on the zoom in chart of the hourly is which line of the upper dual dotted black lines is going to provide the weekly high. Was it today’s at the 1244 high or is it going to be the upper line near 1252 at the end of the week?
Going into Wednesday, support comes in at moving average 1222 so give that 1222-1227 with today’s low as minor support and at the cross line 1211-1215 and at lower 1200-1205. Odds best support point for Wednesday is either just above or below 1222.
Resistance remains 1238-1244 and then 1251-1261. On a final note I’ve added a red moving ADAPTIVE average with two functions. The first is when it’s above the other averages, its another sign of bull mode. The 2nd is to watch when price dips below the red average. That’s when pullbacks (in a strong market) should end if the very short term trend is still up. In sum, odds favor we’ll test 1222 on Wednesday.

Gold hourly price chart

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 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
 King Regards