Thursday, January 22, 2015

Gold Trend Jan 23, 2015

Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market 
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Gold needs to close above 1272 on a weekly and monthly 
basis to neutralize the downtrend. 
Gold price has arrived at the medium term moving averages (1245-1262)
Intermediate Term ~ Bullish– Resistance is 1312 and 1322.
Short Term ~ Bullish- Odds favor a pullback should be developing

Initial Resistance 1302-1312 2nd tier 1322-1326
Initial Support 1285-1295 2nd tier 1262-1272

The last update listed 1296-1306 as resistance and the high was 1307.
 Support was listed 1272-1282 and the low was 1278.

Several hours ago Saudi Arabia announced that its 91-year-old King Abdullah had passed away, in the process setting off what may be a fascinating, and problematic, Saudi succession fight which impacts everything from oil, to markets to geopolitics, especially in the aftermath of the dramatic political coup in neighboring Yemen. As a reminder, it is Saudi Arabia whose insistence on not cutting oil production with the intent of hobbling the US shale industry has led to the splinter of OPEC, and to a Brent price south of $50. Which is why today's event and its implications will be analyzed under a microscope by everyone: from politicians to energy traders.
Easy monetary policy has created very few positive effects for the real economy — and has created considerable (and in some cases unforeseen) negative effects as well.
While economic policymakers should take a closer look at Japan, China, and yes, the United States, when debating the limits of monetary stimulus and the dangerous nature of financial bubbles; sadly, the discussion is happening too late to be anything more than an intellectual exercise.
In our discussions with the coming liquidity squeeze, our outlook for the first to go was the Euro. When the Fed announced QE was ending the USD index was at 78 and now it’s at 94 just 8 months later. The opposite is the Euro. After talks began about a European QE, the slide began and the more they talked the steeper the selloff.
The Greek election is this weekend. I can’t help but think the election is already rigged. However, I wonder if its rigged to get “RID” of Greece and not rigged to keep them?
Euro since the 2014 high
GoldTrends has discussed the coming liquidity squeeze for a very long time and it is finally creeping into the mainstream.
KBRA notes that low interest rate policies maintained by the Fed and other central banks have created asset bubbles around the globe. The cause of the sudden crisis involving the SNB has its origins in the zero interest rate monetary policies followed by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and other major central banks since the 2008 financial crisis erupted in the U.S. KBRA believes that the FOMC and other central banks, by keeping interest rates too low for too long, have innocently created a liquidity trap that is now feeding global deflation.

When This Ends, Everybody Gets Hurt (And The End Is Uncomfortably Close)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/22/2015

It’s already ‘later’. We're living through the period of time when that dawning recognition of limits will finally burst over the horizon, shining a very bright spotlight on a frightening number of our global society's unsustainable practices. The most urgent of them all, as far as everyone reading this is concerned, is the very uncomfortable fact that it is our system of money that is most likely to break first and hardest because its very design demands endless growth, without which collapse ensues. Central bank credibility (as fictitious as that may be) is essential to maintaining the current narrative, BUT central banks are rapidly losing their credibility (which should have happened simply via deductive reasoning a long time ago) and the strains are showing. When credibility in central bank omnipotence snaps, buckle up. Risk will get re-priced, markets will fall apart, losses will mount, and politicians will seek someone (anyone, dear God, but them) to blame.
Short Term Gold
The bears tried to sell gold off and get it at least back into the main blue dotted channel but price reversed at 1278 and got right back above the line, rallied to 1307 and closed above 1295. That adds to upside pressure to reach 1322-1333 next. However, unless we follow thru and close above 1305, we have to remain cautious. Both the US dollar and gold are on a tear at the moment. Safe-haven as it is PERCEIVED at the moment, is Swiss, gold, and US dollar/Treasuries.
With the Greek elections this weekend, and FOMC and Options Expiration next week, along with CYCLES, odds are actually for a pullback here. Because odds are not absolutes, and the extraordinary circumstances that are escalating globally, gold can continue its rise. The odds are about 30% that gold will move to 1322 first. The key take away is that until gold gets back below that dotted blue trend line it tried today, the upside will have the advantage.
In the past, gold has pulled back to the FOMC and options expiration. That has been the norm. Perhaps things have changed. We’re going to find out. Support is the 1272-1282 area and 1255-1262. Resistance on Friday is 1305-1310, and up to 1316-1322. The short and intermediate term trend is up, but be cautious.

gold hourly price chart

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 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
 King Regards