Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the
bull market final phase underway.
Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Gold needs to close above 1272 on a weekly and monthly basis to neutralize the downtrend.
Intermediate Term ~ Bullish– Resistance is 1312 and 1322. Pullback in play. Only close above 1310 puts upside back in play.
A close below 1247-1255 puts trend in neutral.
Short Term ~ Bullish- A close below 1272-1277 puts the short term from bullish to neutral.
Initial Resistance 1295-1305 2nd tier 1310-1316
Initial Support 1277-1282 2nd tier 1265-1275
The last update listed 1287-1295 as resistance and the high was 1297.70.
Support was listed 1264-1272 and the low was 1272.
Gold Overview
Our pullback scenario based on the FOMC meeting, options expiration and cycles has played out to the first support listed for this week (1264-1272) as the key 1272 weekly reversal number was hit and prices reversed right from there and have moved back to the 1290 area where the moving averages have converged for a short term decision as to whether we’re heading for 1255 or for 1322 next.
The FOMC will have their televised “Fed Speak” on Wednesday afternoon and options expiration for Feb gold completes. That usually sets gold free to move and the control boys have done their job and kept gold under 1300.
We either made the low and prices are heading back up from the key 1272 area or we have one final pump to 1255. Odds favor we’re heading for 1322-1333 on the short term ONCE this pullback completes.
In summary we’re getting our pullback. We reached 1272 (1st target area). Now it’s just a question of whether 1255 gets tested or whether today was the low. If the short term cycles play out, we should not really start rallying until Friday/Wednesday of next week. Thus we should be getting ready for gold to turn up and move higher into mid February. It’s a matter of which support point gold ends up choosing.
Short Term Gold
Last night we covered a break of 1276 would lead to 1266-1272 and the low was 1272. Price then reversed up as the sell off attempt today was rejected and now gold and the 89 and 200 hour averages are meeting up in the 1185-1190 area for a decision as to whether we’re heading for 1255 or for 1322 next. We discussed the blue dotted channel line (momentum channel) and that key 1272 weekly price reversal point we’ve been using and Tuesday was an exact touch.
On a weekly basis, 1243-1255 is very strong support and if 1266-1272 doesn’t hold, the 1243-1255 will become the odds favored spot for a low this week. One of those two price area’s are the odds favored low points for this week and the Tuesday low could be the low for the week. We need to close above that upper black channel line above 1305 to tilt the odds back to up.
The short term trend remains up as we need a close below 1285 to go from bullish to neutral. The intermediate term needs a close below 1272 to go neutral. As long as price remains in the blue momentum channel, the short term trend is up. If bust above the dual main channel line, and then exceed 1310, odds will favor 1322-1332. A close below 1280 keeps the door open for the pullback to last a bit longer and potentially reach 1255.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
