Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull
market final phase underway.
Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Gold needs to close above 1272 on a weekly
and monthly basis to neutralize the downtrend.
Intermediate Term ~ Bullish– Resistance is 1312 and 1322. Pullback in play.
Only close above 1310 puts upside back in play.
A close below 1247-1255 puts trend in neutral.
Short Term ~ Neutral/Bearish- The moving averages have crossed putting the short
term from bullish to neutral/bearish.
A low is due Feb 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours).
term from bullish to neutral/bearish.
A low is due Feb 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours).
Odds favor a resumption of the short term uptrend once the low is in.
Initial Support 1266-1276 2nd tier 1243-1256
The last update listed 1295-1305 as resistance and the high was 1294.
Support was listed 1277-1282 and the low was 1279.
The Fed's Message, Simplified: Shortest FOMC Statement Since 2012
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/28/2015
While the Fed is clearly hinting that lower crude inflation doesn't bother it because "recent declines in energy prices have boosted household purchasing power" and is generally more hawkish on the economy and the labor force, the clearest message from the Fed is simple: or so it would like to convey. At 569 words this was the shortest FOMC statement since November 2012! Which can only mean one thing: an attempt at renormalization, if only for now.
(End of Article)
Goldtrends has been forecasting a global debt crisis (Liquidity Squeeze) for quite a while and the inflection point favored is 2015. The dollar is playing its part as regardless of how hated it is (usually by those who don’t have enough dollars) the fact remains it is the go to when a crisis occurs in the currency market.
We are witnessing that move and have been bullish on the US dollar in our analysis. At some point in time, the party will end for the USD and it will turn the other way. Were it not for this global debt crisis, the dollar would most likely have moved lower but the crisis is here and the play began with the Yen, followed by Euro beginning last summer, followed by the Ruble last autumn, followed by the Swiss this winter. Of course the commodity dollars (think Aussie, Canadian have been going down with commodities.
The run however, is getting old in the tooth as it approaches the moves it usually makes. However, if the crisis gets worse, odds favor that the US dollar will continue to be a haven. Gold is trying to join the safe haven rank since last November.
It is not out of the question for both to rise at the same time in a crisis such as this.
While we we’re bullish the USD based on our chart read, the fundamental basis as to that forecast is highlighted on the chart below. And those fundamentals show that moves to the US dollar occur during currency crisis.
While we are bullish on the USD at the moment, its time is coming. And when it does, it won't be pretty. The next significant high (97.25) is yet another place we have to be cautious. The dollar remains bullish as the crisis escalates and that as the chart showed, is the norm.
The short term gold status is really the same as it was last night. Today’s tight range leaves gold still at decision point as whether we continue to move higher from the Tuesday low, or whether gold completes the short term cycle and takes one more probe to try and break 1272.
So far the first support listed for this week (1264-1272) has been reached at the 1272 weekly level and has moved back to the 1285-1290 area where the moving averages have converged for a short term decision as to whether we’re heading for 1255 or for 1322 next.
The fact that Greece did not move the market, and now the FOMC and options expiration indicate that the market is very confused as to short term direction and like a flock of birds, waits for the first birds to make a move. Then others will follow.
We either made the low and prices are heading back up from the key 1272 area or we have one final pump to 1255. Odds favor we’re heading for 1322-1333 on the short term ONCE this pullback completes.
In summary we’re getting our pullback. We reached 1272 (1st target area). Now it’s just a question of whether 1255 gets tested or whether Tuesday was the low. If the short term cycles play out, we should not really start rallying until Friday/Wednesday of next week. Thus we should be getting ready for gold to turn up and move higher into mid February. It’s a matter of which support point gold ends up choosing. Support is 1264-1274 for Thursday and 1243-1255 Resistance is 1295-1305.
Here's the zoom out view tonight. The short term moving averages have crossed (not shown on this chart) and the bottom line now is if that red support line in the 1266-1272 area doesn't hold, then 1243-1255 can still open up. One of those two price area’s are the odds favored low points for this week. Tuesday could have been the low for the week at 1272 but it remains questionable at the moment.
A close below 1272 keeps the door open for the pullback to last a bit longer and potentially reach 1255.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
