Thursday, April 16, 2015

Gold Trend April 17, 2015

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Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market 
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– trading range 1170-1225.
Short Term ~ Bearish – Next short term cycle turn due now -- April 18th (plus or minus 72 hours).  
It suggests a turn back up next week,  but a close below 1163 cancels that outlook.

Initial Resistance 1207-1214 2nd tier 1219-1226
Support 1178-1185 2nd tier 1162-1172

Last update listed resistance at 1198-1207 and the high was 1205.  
Support was listed at 1178-1185 and the low was 1195.

Central bankers gather privately in Washington
 This Friday to discuss gold

It's a breakfast meeting to be held Friday in Washington for "a select group of central banks and other official-sector institutions," sponsored by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum and the World Gold Council, to discuss "gold, the Renminbi, and the multicurrency system," convened in conjunction with the spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group, a United Nations agency:
"Discussions," the discreet announcement from OMFIF says, "are under Chatham House Rules," whereby information may be used but never attributed:
The Heads of Olympus Meet
Many will likely remember the closed-door meeting that President Obama conducted with most of the “whose-who” of Wall Street, back in the spring of 2013.  The details of that meeting, and its policy decisions weren’t for public eyes, but that’s not the reason why we’d all remember it.  
Something far more serious would keep this event from falling down the memory hole.
After all, it was after that meeting(within one week of it, to be precise) that gold and silver were suddenly riddled with holes!  Quickly, and without mercy, the “thunderbolt algos”, took gold’s price through its all-important line of $1,525, to $1325 and silver down through $26.
It was a devastating attack, which carved off roughly 20% of gold’s price within a 3 week period. This mauling also happened to coincide just shortly after Germany first announced its intent to repatriate roughly 300 tonnes of gold reserves from the NY Fed.
Huh!  Imagine that.  That’s an awful lot of coincidences, right?
Now, why am I bringing this older, clandestine meeting of bankers in DC to mind today?  Well, there’s actually a very good reason.  You see, thanks to Ronan Manly, and GATA, we now know that this Friday, April 17th, there will be an important briefing conducted on financial matters, put on by an organization called, “The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum”(or OMFIF).
Who will be in attendance at this meeting of technocrats?
Well, according to OMFIF, it will be attended by “a select group of central banks and other official sector institutions”.  The title is:
“Gold, the Renminbi, and the Multicurrency Reserve System“
Now that certainly is an eyebrow-raiser, isn’t it? 
As if all this wasn’t enough, the timing of the meeting is the icing on the cake, as the briefings are to “take place during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group spring meeting in Washington.”

Gold, the chart, and the meeting

When gold had that huge crash in 2013,I had been privy to a middle east spot gold trader and was on the phone with them during the crash.  It turned out to be a big internet article.
Anyway, the only reason I brought that up is the fact that Gata’s recent article published a central bank meeting this Friday.
Perhaps it is just a coincidence but I can't help but find it awfully coincidental that it just happens to be 2 years to the week where we had the president have a closed door meeting with bankers and then the 2013 crash took place in gold.
One of the thoughts of course is when seeing China's stock market double in 90 days, it makes me think they are about to de-peg from the dollar and the smart money had forewarning.  
Or is it that China is about to announce their holdings of gold?
Finally, what drives me to thinking something big is about to happen is on the gold chart i've attached. 
While fundamentals rule the long term, charts can provide one most important function and that is showing where the price points that are most important reside. 
The chart itself shows how tight and compressed price now is right at a 10 year trend line.  With the last 5 monthly price bars touching this line and now compressing like this gives high odds that a 200 dollar decision point is at hand for gold.  
Gold long term monthly price chart with support and resistance

Gold is now compressed to the 1170-1225 area and a break either higher or lower is about to develop and its suggestive of a trend decision and soon. 

I must admit that this pattern has odds more to a resolve on the downside.   But they are odds, and not absolutes as there are no absolutes in the market.  
Certainly if its a gold holdings announcement that is coming, then the resolve will be to the upside.
On the other hand, If i was going to try and push gold down, this is the spot i would do it.  This is where gold is most vulnerable to a final leg down.  The control boys are always looking for the chart vulnerabilities because that is where the stops and the weak hands are most easily exploited and they take full advantage of their algo's and chart painting techniques. 
While no one knows the ultimate low and the precise time, over the course of market history, and generally speaking, a return to previous bull market high in a market to form a bear market low a generation later, would most likely favor a final low in gold near the 875 area.  Certainly a poke just under 1000 for a brief moment could also do it. 
While the number may seem low to many readers, and i certainly offer no fundamental for such a move, (indeed fundamentals no longer matter anyway except in the long term) the important thing to keep in mind is that the odds that a major liquidity squeeze is already underway and a debt default of major biblical proportions is about to engulf the globe, favors that gold is going to come out of the ashes the same way it did during the DEMO we got in 2008 and the explosion that led to the 2011 high.  
In summary, odds are high that something is brewing in the background and while it is possible that the control boys do have one more push lower for gold, it is going to play a huge role when the reset finally arrives. 

For when the big crack up does occur, you will see government making changes that would normally take 4 years, in 4 weeks and what would never be considered (gold) will very likely be front and center.
The next move should resolve pretty soon.  Once it does, the trend should become definitive as gold will be heading for 1000-1100 if we lose this trend line on the chart above.  If we have any upside left, we need to get weekly closes above 1225, then 1255 then 1272.  Until then we should remain extremely cautious that gold (and silver) don’t need much to get pushed off the cliff.     

Gold Cycles

The next short term cycle is due April 18th (plus or minus 72 hours).   Thus a short term price low is favored between now and Tuesday.  
One final note:  April 20th is also a day to watch.  That won’t happen until NEXT Monday.   Keep in mind this tight range is from that monthly chart at the top of the report as gold works out whether the line holds or not.  ANY CLOSE ABOVE THE DUAL BLACK RESISTANCE line will favor a move to 1234 as first target and then 1245 as the 2nd. Until then, remain cautious.  With the cycle window opening up and price probe of 1172-1182 again should be watched carefully for a potential short term low.  
      Gold cycles
Gold Short Term

The 1208-1215 area is resistance for Friday and on a weekly basis, the key is whether gold gets above 1225 as it would favor a quick move to the 50 day average at 1234.  On the downside, gold is trying to hold the yearly support zone 1172-1182.  
Any close below 1192 will favor 1172-1185.  That thick 2015 downtrend line is the other area that gold will most likely provide at least INITIAL support should gold lose 1192.  If the price of gold moves above 1215 on Friday then 1219-1225 will come into play.  
  gold hourly price chart

M Samer Al Reifae
Official Representative in Romania at HiWayFX
+40 734 277 757


 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
 King Regards