Monday, April 27, 2015

Gold Trend April 28, 2015



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Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– trading range 1170-1225.
Short Term ~ Neutral–   Price remains in trade range 1175-1225 and waiting for breakout or breakdown.

Initial Resistance 1205-1212 2nd tier 1218-1225
Support 1189-1195 2nd tier 1178-1183

The last update listed resistance at 1182-1190 and 
2nd tier at 1197-1204 the high was 1207.  
Support was listed at 1165-1172 and the low was 1178.

Gold Trading Range
The trading range we have been in for a month got to my patience on Monday. Instead of waiting for confirmation and getting a close below 1172, I anticipated that 1175 was going to give way and that was proven incorrect on Monday morning when for no reason gold made up all that was lost last week in just one hour of trade and vaulted 25 dollars higher.  And so it is in a trading range and we remain in an 1175-1225 trading range.  Price has not been this messy and non moving on the chart for over ½ a year.  Look how above and below the 50 day (blue line) we have been trading.  It looked like last Friday had given the set up lower, but Monday’s trade put us right back in the same place.   Indeed, the circled portion of the chart shows the mess that gold has been in.
Gold daily price chart
It is important however to keep in mind that the up and down trendless motion we see on the daily chart is really a function of the long term chart below and the critical price point gold is trading at.  Odds favor the dynamics going on is the decision point gold is at this 2005 channel line. 
Gold and the 2005 trend line

Gold Short Term
Resistance on Tuesday will be the 1205-1212 and then 1218-1225.  Support is 1189-1195 and 1178-1183.  Its possible gold will remain with the upper and lower lines on the hourly chart Tuesday.
Gold hourly price chart
What next?
With the FOMC meeting beginning on Tuesday, prices should remain near this area.  Indeed the markets have become obsessed with what the Fed will say or not say.  AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT THEY WANT---total confusion.

M Samer Al Reifae
Official Representative in Romania at HiWayFX
http://lordoftruth.blogspot.com
samer@hiwayfxglobal.com
+40 734 277 757

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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 
 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
 King Regards