Monday, April 6, 2015

Gold Trend April 7, 2015

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Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market 
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Need a monthly close above 1223-1242 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– trading range.
Short Term ~ Bullish above 1200 - Short term cycle turn due April 4th 
(plus or minus 72 hours)

Initial Resistance 1218-1228 2nd tier 1239-1245
Support 1198-1208 2nd tier 1188-1192


The NFP report produced a very low job number (126K) and the weakness has pushed gold higher as markets were closed upon release last Friday and when we opened Sunday night the price gapped higher to 1210 and worked their way up to 1225 before beginning a pullback.

Indeed, the economy is in retreat in almost all categories.

March Consumer Spending Hits Three-Year Low For Average Americans

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/06/2015

With more than three quarters of US workers trapped in what we will call “wage growth hell,” and whose only chance at seeing a pay hike appears to rest on holding out for a promotion that’s probably not forthcoming, it doesn’t exactly come as a surprise that self-reported consumer spending hit a three-year low for March.

The funny part is gold used to rally on that news because it meant lower rates were coming. But now a days, gold gets an initial pop, and it always turns back down now because the fear is no longer too much inflation, but the inability to produce any with trillions of currency printed.

Let’s go to the Cycles first as they have options open.

Gold Cycles
The Medium term Cycle turn (green) suggests a low is made and higher prices are favored but the short term cycle is the big question.

Did we make a blue cycle low on Thursday/Friday morning (when the cycle window opened) or did we just make the blue cycle high today (when the cycle window closed)? And that really is the dilemma we face with short term cycle direction. Last months red cycle turn allowed us to pull a good trade in gold and silver on the signals page. On this month’s turn, we have the opposite.

We have a situation where gold can go either way because the chart can interpret a blue cycle low (April 1st) or a Blue cycle high (April 6th). The only way we are going to get odds is when gold gets above 1229 and closes above that level also. That can lead to the 1245-1272 area as a 1st target on a cycle push higher.

But until we get above 1229 then the potential that we just made a blue cycle high and another test of yearly support can’t be ruled out. The best strategy then is to favor higher if gold gets above the dual black channel resistance line and re-enters into the UPTRENDING CHANNEL (with the fatter black dotted lines). That will favor higher into April 18th (plus or minus 72 hours). If we don’t exceed resistance and pullback to the 1160-1180 area and hold into the 18th of the month, then odds will favor another push higher will begin then. In summary, A PUSH ABOVE 1229 GIVES THE BULLS THE ADVANTAGE. Gold has held 4 tests of resistance. ODDS ARE HIGH resistance won’t hold 5 times. The cycle window closes after the Tuesday close and the next short term cycle will be in play into the 18th.

gold cycles

Gold Short Term

Gold has reached key intermediate term resistance 4 times. The 1219-1228 area is resistance. The key is whether gold gets above 1229 as it would favor a quick move to 1244.

Support on Tuesday is the 1198-1208 and then 1180-1186. Resistance is 1219-1229 and then 1239-1244 on Tuesday. Odds favor Tuesday spends most of the day testing the 1206-1218 area. In summary, seasonal factors, price pattern, and COT positions are in favor of gold catching a bid in April/May. A close above 1229 will favor higher towards 1244 next. Until that close, it’s possible we get another short term drop into mid month first before the seasonal moves higher.

Gold price chart

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M Samer Al Reifae
Official Representative in Romania at HiWayFX
+40 734 277 757


 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
 King Regards