Long Term ~ Bearish - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish – Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral – trading range 1170-1225.
Short Term ~ Bearish – Price remains in trade range 1175-1225 and waiting for
breakout or breakdown.
Initial Resistance 1188-1192 2nd tier 1198-1205
Support 1163-1172 2nd tier 1150-1158
Gold Short Term
Gold prices fell to a 6-week low with the precious metal off by more than 0.50% to trade at $1177 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The decline marks the fourth consecutive weekly loss and comes amid a volatile session for bullion with prices testing the monthly close highs before reversing course to take out the monthly lows late in the week. The focus now shifts to the May opening range with key event risk next week likely to offer further guidance on the medium-term outlook with huge swings in prices this week testing virtually the entire April range.
A weaker-than-expected US GDP report mid-week capped a 3.8% rally in gold as expectations for an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve were pushed out. The FOMC policy decision later on Wednesday however suggested that the recent US economic slowdown was largely seen as ‘transitory.’ with the committee still not ruling out and interest rate hike in the second half of the year. The April Non-Farm Payrolls report will central focus this week with consensus estimates calling for a print of 225K on the heels of the dismal March report which came in at just 126K with unemployment expected to downtick to 5.4%.
From a chart perspective, the two final support points before new lows suggest 1163-1168 and 1142-1152. With the trading range mess it’s going to take a close above 1225 on a weekly basis before we can say the trend is up. With the NFP report this coming Friday, it’s going to be a long 4 days of trading. It takes a close above 1190 to favor any recovery potential. But with the crazy trading range we have had, anything is possible on the short term.
What next?
This week the NFP report on Friday will be the biggie. We remain in a trading range of 1175-1225.
Friday penetrated the lower end but the close of 1277 on Globex kept us inside the range.
Monday favors a test toward 1188 and then we’ll see.
Bottom Line
As long as we are in the range of 1175-1225, we remain in a chop.
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M Samer Al Reifae
Official Representative in Romania at HiWayFX
http://lordoftruth.blogspot.com
samer@hiwayfxglobal.com
+40 734 277 757
Official Representative in Romania at HiWayFX
http://lordoftruth.blogspot.com
samer@hiwayfxglobal.com
+40 734 277 757
YOU ARE NEVER LEFT ALONE
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
