Long Term ~ Bearish - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market
final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish – Need a monthly close above 1255 to remove bearish trend.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral – trading range 1170-1225.
Short Term ~ Neutral – Price remains in trade range 1175-1225 and
waiting for breakout or breakdown.
Initial Resistance 1198-1207 2nd tier 1212-1215
Support 1172-1182 2nd tier 1163-1168
The last update listed resistance at 1197-1205 and the high was 1200.
Support was listed 1172-1182 and the low was 1185.
Gold Short Term
The April Non-Farm Payrolls report will central focus this week with consensus estimates calling for a print of 225K on the heels of the dismal March report which came in at just 126K with unemployment expected to downtick to 5.4%.
From a chart perspective below, the two final support points before new lows suggest 1163-1171 and 1142-1152. With the trading range mess it’s going to take a close above 1225 on a weekly basis before we can say the trend is up. With the NFP report this coming Friday, it’s going to be a long 3 days of trading. The moving averages at 1197 is a closing price resistance, but the black dotted resistance lines at 1202-1207 and then 1212-1216 are the spots to watch on Wednesday. With the crazy trading range we have had, anything is possible on the short term and we just keep going back and forth. Just look at the pattern over the last 30 days. Incredible.
What Next?
This week the NFP report on Friday will be the biggie. We remain in a trading range of 1175-1225. We got our test above 1197 on Tuesday, and Wednesday should at least begin to start factoring in the NFP upcoming report on Friday. That may leave gold with strong resistance anywhere near 1202-1207 and one would think we get some type of pullback into Thursday as gold sets up for the NFP results. Odds favor that should be near either 1190 or 1200 for gold. Of course they are odds and it wouldn’t take much to see gold 20 higher or lower in a moment’s notice with this type of trade range.
And that’s the problem with ranges like this. In order to get odds flowing again, we need Trend. The greater the trend and ITS SLOPE, the greater the projections for price to meet price objectives become. We went thru a similar April and May last year. At least for the most part.
From a short term perspective, one would think that the NFP report will show weakness in the job front. If that is the case, it would seem that the control boyz will try and push gold higher into mid month.
In some ways it really doesn’t matter because if the control boyz slam it lower, they will say the jobs were expected to be low due to the big winter and so it was already discounted.
But what if the JOBS report is really like all the other reports…………..Government fabrications and they throw in a good job number in there?
Problem with that scenario is the Feds are right back in the hot seat with having to raise interest rates and potentially getting a stronger dollar factor. THE FEDS DON’T WANT A STRONGER DOLLAR.
That’s right…….after complaining about the WEAK US dollar for years, NOW NO ONE WANTS ONE. And how about zero rates? Everyone complains about them, but no one wants them to go up.
Quite frankly, the market doesn’t know what it wants.
We listed last night that pullbacks should find support near 1183 and the 1185 low on Tuesday was evident of that. The story is the same on Wednesday. There should be support near that price point (give or take a few dollars).
Odds favor that gold will find resistance at 1202-1207 on Wednesday and perhaps pullback from there as Thursday should be back and forth in anticipation of the NFP report on Friday.
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M Samer Al Reifae
Official Representative in Romania at HiWayFX
http://lordoftruth.blogspot.com
samer@hiwayfxglobal.com
+40 734 277 757
Official Representative in Romania at HiWayFX
http://lordoftruth.blogspot.com
samer@hiwayfxglobal.com
+40 734 277 757
YOU ARE NEVER LEFT ALONE
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
