lets look at the aspect of short term timing and our short term cycles.
First off, there are no technical or any other indicators that will work for timing or trend changes 100% of the time. Indeed, many are often no better than 50/50. That means guessing is just as right. Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. In the world of cycles, many expect the cycles to have EXACT time at each cycle. That's like expecting winter to START no earlier and no later than Dec 21st.
In other words cycles have standard deviation time. In the short term cycle below, its plus or minus 72 hours.
In a bull market , Blue lows and red highs are the "preferred" rotation in bullish markets.
When we have RED bottoms and blue tops ---- the cycle inverts and the rotation changes.
In gold cycles, a bear market rally usually (but not always) during August. They usually peak during the 1st two weeks of Sept.
In a bull market --- the summer rally last until Mid October, down in November and BACK up until mid-February--- and in real strong markets, until Mid March.
Two weeks ago, price had broken down on the red cycle and all was running ok in cycle land. But the Yuan devaluation and its major downturn in equities as well as a global recession on the horizon, coming debt default and there's giving a lot to think about.
When we have tremendous corrections in other markets, gold reacts. When you look at the chart, gold turned down on the last red cycle right on time. But there was too much pressure in the global markets and gold had a three day reaction higher at that time. Since then, gold moved lower into late last week just under 1120 before the bounce on Friday.
Now lets look back at the chart. A blue cycle low is due Aug 29th (plus or minus 72 hours). Thus the window for a turn opened up Friday (and that was the low so far on the pullback. That means gold bottomed on Friday -- OR--- has about a 75% chance of making a short term bottom between now Wednesday and turning up into mid month.
A few things to consider........
First the global markets are in turmoil and as you saw last week, gold did and inverted the cycle. In other words, we have a 75% chance of making a bottom and a rally to mid -month. 75 % is not 100%. Keep that in mind.
Second is if gold is still in a bear market as it has since 2011, then the rally is due to peak in September. Sometimes there are major turns in markets right after labor day.
That still doesn't solve whether we rally to mid- month beginning this week or if gold will have a 2nd inversion at this blue cycle and keep moving lower to mid-month. From an odds standpoint, its only a 5% chance of a 2nd inversion in a row. They are rare------ but i've seen a handful. And they often occur during volatile situations like is occurring in China, Europe and many other nations.
Third ---- its the end of the month (Aug) and that means Futures trading has now (for the most part moved to the DEC futures. That sometimes can make for a tricky day in price.
Finally looking back at the chart we see the CHANNEL line running across last weeks low. NOW PRICE HAS TO BREAK THAT DOWNTRENDING channel that has been capping the price action.
Friday's price action closed right at the 50 day average. Watch that area.
As for a trade, that blue line on the chart WHERE PRICE HIT on last weeks low also
is an area to watch carefully.
Follow The Claws & Horns!!
Double your profits with free money & Minimize your risk
--> Register with HiWayFX and claim your 100% welcome bonus instantly.
--> Take advantage of our 1:1000 leverage and trade in the Forex Market!
--> Apply for Massive Cash Back to your trading account.. Receive $15 per lot for any trade.
--> Turn your $100 investment into $800 in 2 months. Follow our FREE and efficient Trading Signals from Claws & Horns.
Welcome to my blog where you can learn how to trade the Forex Market for free.Just pure learning! It will be of great fun.The top of the page is where your quality education material resides. The material is all created by myself and not copied from anywhere. There is a lot yet to come since there is a lot that you need to learn, and there is a lot that I need to share with you! So please just be patient – it will be worth it.You can judge by yourself the quality of information that I will be giving you in the next pages. So just go now and start learning!
Below is a quick guide of how this website is structured, so you can find what you are looking for fast. Remember that I update the pages every day so either check back often.
In this section you will find quite a long article of what Forex is all about. If you are a beginner, this is a must read. It explains in detail what is required to start trading, what you should do and not, typical traps to avoid as a beginner and a lot of valuable information which you as a beginner must digest and learn prior opening any Forex account with real money.
In this section you will find your road map on how to become a real successful trader couple of months as from today.
In this section you will know the 3 major areas – Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis and Trading Physcology.
In this section you will find a gold mine of information about the technicalities of Forex. We will start from the very basics covering all the Forex jargon words which you will be hearing every day and we will be taking you up to the level required to finally learn to trade like a pro – technical analysis, also found in this section.
In this section you will see the tips that will help you stay away from crap forex products, which unfortunately the Forex market is invaded with.
This section has a very detailed article on how to avoid being scammed in this ruthless world of Forex. I will explain in detail six tips that you need to look for prior purchasing any products. Even though most of the time you may claim your money back,the time wasted is never returned. You should have used that time to learn how to trade! Read it!
FEAR STRIKES OUT
Rumor and rumors of rumors finally took over common sense and fear was at a premium. The VIX soared to a four year high as "sell stocks and ask questions later" became the mood for the day. Rumors about a French credit downgrade and the health of some French banks created a selling frenzy. Forget that all those rumors were denied by all major reporting agencies, when traders are blinded by fear they might believe almost anything. When people trade irrationally there can be some marvelous opportunities for those that keep a calm head and a keen eye. The best way to combat fear is to have a plan that seeks to find moves that are overdone based on reality and to doggedly control your risk. If you have a solid plan that you stick to then fear goes away and you can take advantage of what the market brings you. Jimmy Piersall was crazy and he has papers to prove it and I may be crazy(not endorsed by any rating agency) but as bad as things are (and they are bad) they are not as nearly as bad as yesterday's market action would have you believe. Now I'll admit that some fear was totally justified especially last week but now for many stocks and some commodities, it is getting a little bit silly. I am not calling a stock market bottom necessarily, but at the same time a lot of stocks are ridiculously oversold due to fear and the loss of any rational thinking. When you trade by fear you will make bad decisions.
Fear strikes out and so will you.
The best way to combat fear is to have a plan which includes taking your losses if necessary only so you will have the capital to take advantage of the values that those driven by fear will give you. If volatility is too much for you, stay on the sidelines because if you had a good plan you should be out and you can then wait for...........
THE SUN TO RISE AGAIN.
The best way to combat fear is to have a plan which includes taking your losses if necessary only so you will have the capital to take advantage of the values that those driven by fear will give you. If volatility is too much for you, stay on the sidelines because if you had a good plan you should be out and you can then wait for...........
THE SUN TO RISE AGAIN.
M Samer Al Reifae
Official HiWayFX Representative in Romania
http://lordoftruth.blogspot.com/
samer@hiwayfx.com
samer@hiwayfxglobal.com
+40 734 277 757
YOU ARE NEVER LEFT ALONE
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
