Friday, April 1, 2016

Gold Trend April 01, 2016

Long Term ~ Neutral but just barely if Mar 31st and April 1st closes above 1222.  IF close below 1222, trend remains bearish.
Medium Term ~ Neutral-Need a monthly close above 1255-1272 to turn bullish. The blue average has crossed above the red, and that’s a bullish sign.
Intermediate Term ~ Bullish– The intermediate term remains in bullish mode and it takes a weekly close below 1217 to neutralize the uptrend.
Short Term ~Neutral- The short term trend has moved to NEUTRAL. Short term cycles called for a potential pullback low near 1222 or 1190. We got 122\06 this week. A close above 1287 favors 1306-1322. Neutral is not bearish and gold can still move higher. A close below 1206 turns things bearish.

Initial Resistance 1263-1272 2nd tier 1280-1288
Support 1217-1227 2nd tier 1200-1210

Gold Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly Close on Friday
The most IMPORTANT NUMBER TO WATCH on Thursday (monthly close) and Friday (weekly & quarterly close) is 1220-1222. We need to close above this number to KEEP the MOMENTUM alive. A close below won’t be the end all to the current rally, but gold would have much more potential if we close above it. Quarterly Charts are important.
As you can see by the quarterly long term chart, gold looks to have completed an exact retracement to the 1980-2008 channel line when we touched below 1050 in December 2015. Right now price is at key resistance as we close the quarter. We can’t rule out a test of the 21st century uptrend line, but odds the bear market is over will be when we overcome 1306-1342 on a quarterly basis. Another key number is 1438, but that’s for later.

The Fed Chief Yellen speech this week was a lot more dovish than most suspected but overall gold remains in a consolidation phase since the 1287.80 high and is in a potential price range of 1172-1272. She basically said that QE could come back if you read between the lines.
A close above 1288 favors 1306-1322. A close below 1206 favors 1172-1190.
This Thursday close is a monthly/quarterly close for gold. The Feb close was 1240. It would be nice to see that but as long as we close above 1217-1222 the uptrend will remain intact. Friday is a weekly close for gold. It is still possible for gold pressure to exert itself as the NFP report comes out.
BE READY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE REPORT IS RELEASED.  The control boyz often clear the stops on both sides and then direction begins.  UNLESS WE GET ABOVE 1241-1247,  gold can still swoon lower.  Watch 1217-1222 for 1st support and then 1205-1209.

What do we need to call this a real gold bull market?
From a price perspective consider the following. Regardless of all opinions, the price chart is the least arbitrary thing we can do to surmise the gold situation. For it contains all the trades of all the people behind and in front of the curtain. It is the sum value and its patterns can provide clues as to where to look for the key price points on a long term basis.
Here we go.
Gold’s Pre Crisis High was 1033 in 2008. The 2015 low was at 1044, and that’s close enough to say that gold retested the original new high right before the Financial Crisis of 2008 (the debt default demo). From there price has rebounded to the resistance lines and the ADAPTIVE AVERAGES. Note how during the bull market the averages turned bullish just above $300 and stayed that way through the bull market AND how they now have gathered at 1309-1342 together providing the most important resistance this side of 1400-1450.

Summary – If this is a real bull market, it must now overcome this key price zone (1309-1342) and finally the 2011 downtrend line.

Gold Short term Cycles
The cycle chart is busy but don't let it throw you. All we have done is add the MEDIUM TERM cycles into the usual cycle chart you see. The Green is the ideal week for a turn and the Yellow is the WINDOW for a standard deviation required for cycles. Nothing works EXACT. Otherwise, the Greeks would have conquered the grain markets long ago.
The short term blue cycle favors higher prices until April 7th (plus or minus 72 hours). That is a bit above a 70% confidence factor. I've HIGHLIGHTED a cycle FAILURE/INVERSION in November to show it can happen. It has not happened in 9 turns and we're at the end of the quarter and at a medium term point. IF GOLD IS VERY STRONG it should be able to hold 1215-1222 on a weekly basis. Since 1207 is the low any failure there and your looking at the potential of 1190-1200. The bottom line is that for the moment, we can trust the blue cycle with 70% odds. Remember, there are no absolutes. If gold does rally and gets above 1245, then the potential to move to 1272-1307 even to 1322. If we begin to fail here, and move below 1207, it would introduce the potential of a cycle failure/inversion where 1190-1200 reside at the channel line marked support. If price were to move inside the 2016 uptrend channel then it opens up 1122-1172.

What next?
Short term and medium term Cycles are due to turn. The short term cycle next is due April 7th.
IF we made the low at 1206 then we should get another upturn higher towards 1302-1322 on any close above 1288.
First we need to get above 1247.
Any pullback to 1162-1190 would seem to be a gift at the moment in gold.

Bottom Line
The correction does look complete.  We need to see a burst above 1307-1342 to really put another nail in the coffin.

 M Samer Al Reifae
Official HiWayFX Representative in Romania
+40 734 277 757

 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.