Gold Trend 22/April/2013

Long Term=Bullish/Neutral – the 1476 close last Friday was below the long term average (1480). A monthly close below 1480 would put long term out of bull mode and into neutral.
Medium Term=Bearish Need a close above 1680 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term=Bearish –need a close above 1480 to neutralize downtrend.
Short Term=Neutral/Bearish-- A close above 1404 and full neutral. 1420-1425 is key resistance. A close below 1320 & 1280 would be next support area.

Support and Resistance
(NOTE JUNE GOLD NUMBERS– Spot about 1 dollar above June gold)
Initial Resistance 1423-1433 and 2nd tier 1444-1462
Initial Support 1394-1404 and 2nd tier 1376-1386
Bull Bear Pivot Zone-- JUNE FUTURES about 50 cents lower than spot
Above 1408 favors the bulls – below 1398 favors the bears
Monday Daily Bull/Bear Pivot Zone = 1398-1405 (Ideal 1405)
Weekly Bull/ Bear Pivot Zone = 1405-1409(ideal 1407)
Monthly bull/bear pivot zone = 1590-1600 (ideal 1590)

Gold Hourly Chart

Gold reached the 1425 area last week and was our key target for a high. Monday has 1423-1433 as a potential and above that we could reach 1447 as a potential where the 200 hour green moving average resides. We may not see 1447 on Monday but above 1425 does open up to 1433. The bounce is still in play from last week and it would take a move below 1371-1377 to suggest it has completed. Support is at 1380 and the mini moving averages at 1400. Major support is the lower purple line at 1340. That purple line at 1425 is key. If we move above it by much then the potential to 1433 and even 1447 will open up. The next cycle on the short term is due on the 25th (plus or minus 72 hours) and it would be better if we got a pullback into that area. It doesn’t have to be a new low, but a pullback would help put the rotation in a bullish mode. A high on the other hand would still have the odds that the correction is not over. Not that we can’t go higher, but the rotation would still not be where we like it. The one exception to everything is if the inventory is really that low in gold then the potential to move higher this week will be in play. With all the buying last week, the control boys might have dug themselves a hole. For now the bounce is in play and Monday has a great start, let’s see if it ends that way.

What Next?

Friday got above 400 and closed above it and that keeps the bounce going on Monday. Resistance is 1423-1433 and above that the potential for 1447 could come in play at the 200 hour moving average. Support is 1380 daily and as long as we are above 1371-1377 the bounce remains in play. There’s a minor support around 1398-1400 that will provide first support on Monday. In summary, the longer term trends are down, but the short term is neutral and the bounce is still in play as we enter Monday. A pullback this week would be nice for the cycles but if the inventory is really that low we can continue higher. Let’s see how far Monday’s push will go.

Bottom Line

we hit major support on all our long term chart lines last week. If we didn’t reach the low we think we’re near it at least for a good bounce into May/June. Even if we get a dip to 1280-1290 where the 38% retracement is the odds are still good that we’re at the most solid support we’ve been at in two years. It only took a week to get there, and perhaps, if this inventory is really that low, we’ll get a big bounce from here.

 

YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 

 Do your own due diligence. 

No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 

 King Regards